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194: Finding New Ways To Speed Retirement Savings With Dario Fusato

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It’s not often that people create new products that aren’t annuities to increase late-in-life income for seniors. It’s even rarer to design one intended to complement the sale of traditional annuities. Today, we’ll explore one new company working to offer precisely that. It’s called Savvly and we have Dario Fusato, the CEO to explain exactly how the product works.

Links mentioned in the show:

https://www.savvly.com/

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Episode Transcript

The discussion is not meant to provide any legal, tax, or investment advice with respect to the purchase of an insurance product. A comprehensive evaluation of a consumer’s needs and financial situation should always occur in order to help determine if an insurance product may be appropriate for each unique situation.

Laura Dinan Haber194: Finding New Ways To Speed Retirement Savings With Dario Fusato
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193: The Quarterly Market Review with David Czerniecki

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David Czerniecki, Chief Investment Officer of Nassau Financial Group joins us again this quarter to provide his assessment of market trends and the overall economic outlook.

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The discussion is not meant to provide any legal, tax, or investment advice with respect to the purchase of an insurance product. A comprehensive evaluation of a consumer’s needs and financial situation should always occur in order to help determine if an insurance product may be appropriate for each unique situation.

Laura Dinan Haber193: The Quarterly Market Review with David Czerniecki
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192: A Recap of the Alliance for Lifetime Income Summit With David Macchia

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Two weeks ago, the Alliance for Lifetime Income held a summit in Washington D.C. for its members. Ramsey Smith and our guest today, David Macchia participated in the panel discussions. They give us a recap of the event and the insights they gleaned from the two days there.

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Episode Transcript

The discussion is not meant to provide any legal, tax, or investment advice with respect to the purchase of an insurance product. A comprehensive evaluation of a consumer’s needs and financial situation should always occur in order to help determine if an insurance product may be appropriate for each unique situation.

Transcript:

Paul Tyler:
Hi, this is Paul Tyler and welcome to another episode of That Annuity Show. We have our regular host, Ramsey, how are you?

Ramsey D Smith:
Fantastic.

Paul Tyler:
Bruno, welcome from Canada.

Bruno Caron:
Fantastic as well here.

Paul Tyler:
Tisa, glad to have you on.

Tisa Rabun-Marshall:
Thanks, good morning everyone.

Paul Tyler:
Yeah, well today we’re actually going to spend some time talking about a conference two weeks ago that the Alliance for Lifetime Income organized in Washington, DC. It looked like a great turnout, great speakers. Ramsey, you were there, and we have one other panelist, also a regular guest on our show, Mr. David Mocchia. David, welcome.

David Macchia:
Good morning. Thank you.

Paul Tyler:
And for those who don’t know, you are the founder and CEO of Wealth2K in Boston. And thanks. We just thought it would be really interesting just to get both of your perspectives on what was said, what wasn’t said, what should be talked about a little bit more in the industry going forward. Ramsey, I’ll just turn it over to you to start.

Ramsey D Smith:
Sure, so just to. to give a bit of background on the event. So it was held in Washington, D.C. And I thought that the way it was organized was really unique and interesting. So it was sponsored by the Alliance for Lifetime Income. It was their annual summit. And it was an interesting mix of people and leaders representing the members of the Alliance for Lifetime Income. So they have 20 odd members that are in the insurance industry support the cause of changing the conversation around protected income. And this was a gathering of those leaders. It was a gathering of what I’ll call the intelligentsia

Ramsey D Smith:
space, all right. I won’t include myself in that, but I will just say that I was happy to be in the room. And, you know, it was a it was a who’s who of was a who’s who of a folks we’ve been lucky enough to have on our show over the course of the last three or four years. A lot of amazing voices joined by. really what I’ll call stakeholders in the space. So on the first day there was a session around table and the whole event was really built around this UN style table which I think was great for fostering conversation. The first conversation really revolved around the role of financial advisors, RAs and other financial advisors. And then the next day it was just a very interesting mix of again, of leaders, of consumers. it was a consumer panel, that was really quite enlightening. And then, again, different people, sort of bringing different perspectives on what the challenges are and opportunities in the space. So just before we go on, I wanna thank Gene Statler, Cyrus Bamgee, and the entire Alliance team for having us as part of the program. It was a fantastic program. David, I don’t know what you wanna add to that, but I wanted to sort of set the table for the audience about what we talked about.

David Macchia:
You said it well, Ramsey, and I’ll also say that you’re clearly and appropriately part of the intelligentsia of retirement

David Macchia:
income ecosystem. The Alliance did a wonderful job bringing all of these people together. The conversation, the panels were great, terrific information. An overarching theme that came through over and over again, though, was that we still have a long way to go. We’re nowhere near the penetration with the protected income, guaranteed income that we And so there’s more effort, more communications, more tools, more thought that needs to be committed to this. But a tremendous beginning. And the Alliance, to its credit, has made some great progress and has highlighted the issue, I think, in a very, very effective way.

Paul Tyler:
Well, I’m curious on roadblocks. That’s a loaded term. I don’t know, Ramsey, what were they? And I mean, if we started to, you know, maybe we could jump into a couple of them, talk about the problems, how they were identified and what kind of solutions or ideas came up.

Ramsey D Smith:
So we can start with the issue of advisors, financial advisors, RIAs. There was a whole session at the beginning where we focused on that, and it was really, again, a nice mix of people. There were advisors that were from wirehouses, there were advisors that were from independent RIAs. David Lau, who’s been… on our show and has been an innovator in bringing annuities to that crowd, was there and was vocal in a great way. And it was just interesting to hear what various parties had to say about how they felt about the opportunity to use annuities. And so it’s interesting is that even to the extent that many of them were pro, so one of the challenges we have in this space is that there are plenty of RAs that aren’t pro the use of annuities. or protected income solutions. And this was actually, I would say, relatively speaking, a friendly audience. But a lot of what they talked about was the challenges with doing something scalably in the space. And so to the extent that they actually used annuities, protected income solutions for their clients, it was not as frequent as it might as otherwise have been if the process of managing a business around an annuity book if you book a business you will were were simpler and more scalable David any thoughts on that I’m happy to add

David Macchia:
Yeah,

Ramsey D Smith:
more

David Macchia:
no,

Ramsey D Smith:
there

David Macchia:
I think that’s absolutely right. And you are correct, Ramsey. There were friendly people from firms like Morgan Stanley and others that believe in annuities and want to see the adoption of annuities greater in their firms than they currently are. But there’s roadblocks everywhere. And there’s certainly roadblocks in terms of what I’ve written a lot about, which is just sort of an endemic hostility among many in the RA community to annuities. some out and keep reminding them that their traditional disparagement or negative thoughts about annuities have largely been eradicated and designed away. You mentioned David Lau, and he’s been an innovator correctly. There are kind of the annuity that is ideally suited for adoption to the RIA model right now. It should be used more. It should have greater uptake. But we still have work to do to persuade these people that they need to move past their own prejudices against, you know, guaranteed income.

Ramsey D Smith:
So I want to return to this notion of scalability because there were definitely some comments that I think were quite fair. And it was really around a few things. One, it was around, because of the great deal of differentiation that’s been introduced into our business between one company’s products and another, and even between the companies to a certain extent. There’s a lot of due diligence that kind of goes into the initial process of starting to provide those products in one’s business. And then once you’ve done that, there’s, there’s an ongoing, there’s ongoing service responsibility. that as they described was challenging. So they told stories of lots of time on the phone. So there was some question that might have come up about a policy and there wasn’t an easy place to get an answer for it online or elsewhere. So they ultimately had to make outbound calls to the carriers to find out and that the friction around having to do that and the hours spent. waiting for answers, you know, ultimately made it difficult to think about contemplating building a, building a broader and more scalable business. So in my view, it highlighted like one of the key things that we need to continue to work on in this industry is to focus more on commoditization and standardization and less on less on differentiation. I know that that’s some people will find that to be heretical. But

David Macchia:
Yeah.

Ramsey D Smith:
certainly in my view, because I think that the biggest constraint in our industry, I don’t think is creativity. I think the biggest constraint in our industry is operational ease, and also it’s capital. I think that if everybody out there that could use an annuity bought an annuity tomorrow, the industry isn’t big enough yet to handle it. So that’s our constraint. We provide a really, really super valuable commodity. And I think that would be the place to invest. So that came through for me in some of the comments, again, from friendly RIAs in this space, who were only selling a few policies a year.

David Macchia:
I think this overarching theme of the need for simplification, which goes along with what you said, Ramsey, is really, really important. It’s hard with the current distribution model to move past the tendency to overcomplicate and make products more feature-rich all the time as a way to be competitively differentiated from your pure insurance company. Until that is solved, then it’s going to be difficult to move past what has been… a decades long approach, right, in terms of trying to be more competitive than the next company.

Paul Tyler:
Well, let’s just push a little bit on that simplification point, right? And I would say, why, right? Are we simplifying to make it easier to do plans? Going back to your scalability point, is it simpler to create client plans? Is it cheaper to administer? Is it cheaper to provide? Is it easier to find clients? You know and Ramsey you make the other point is it easier for the industry to actually you know grow from a capital and risk management standpoint? Yeah, did you dive deeper into you know any one of those particular areas?

Ramsey D Smith:
David, you want to go or?

David Macchia:
Well, I’m not certain, Paul, that the conference surfaced up, you know, solid answers to these big problems. It was more an analysis and identification of what the challenges are. And I think we have yet to figure out how to get around all of them. But we have to. You know, I think a universal, a universal desire among everyone who attended would be to see annuities become. standardized mainline products with genuine consumer demand. And

Ramsey D Smith:
So, sorry, go ahead.

David Macchia:
in that context, I think it’s very important that the RIA community embrace annuities. I think that’s a key to getting to where we have to go. But there’s a lot of work that has to be done to, as Ramsey indicated, to make it scalable in that channel.

Ramsey D Smith:
So I’m gonna take the other side of my own argument.

David Macchia:
Hehehe

Ramsey D Smith:
and ask the question, so why is it that we do focus so much, there is so much focus on differentiation in this industry. And I think at a certain level, it’s what customers are looking for. I mean, customers wanna feel like they’re buying something special. It’s not unique to the insurance industry. You see it in the mutual fund industry. Like, you could see a world where everybody just bought index funds, but no, people want branded funds, they want star managers, There’s a marketing challenge, Paul, I think that’s what you’re kind of getting at. There is a legitimate marketing challenge to the extent that you’re selling something that you sort of say admittedly is the simplest possible solution. So I think that’s the challenge. It’s not just what the industry wants to sell. I think it’s that that’s what the audience… whether intentionally or not, tends to ask for, I mean for years, whenever I spent 30 years on Wall Street and people would ask me for stock tips and the like, and I would always point them to a very well-known index fund manager. And if they followed my advice, they would do that, and they would come back and they’d say to me, well okay, now what do I do? And the answer to that was, is go get a beer. But in fact, they… you know, to a man or woman, they all wanted to find something else. They all felt like they needed to do something else. So people are willing to actually pay like they feel like they’ve done something different. So I think that’s a behavioral tendency that is quite real.

Bruno Caron:
So you mentioned the conference was separated in multiple topics. You mentioned you had a consumer panel. David, did you identify some of those consumers as being constraint investors? And were some of them, could you see the path towards the the continuing investment story to them and how to bring the conversation to that particular context.

David Macchia:
It’s a good question. I think that panel revealed a few things For me firstly, I’d say all of them were constrained investors But was most jarring to me was their difficulty in connecting with financial advisors. I mean You know Jean Statler at the meeting said she’s the chairman of the Alliance So we’re gonna make certain that there are people here in the audience who are advisors who work with you, you know But they told their stories, their war stories of how difficult it was to connect with financial advisors. One client found it difficult not so much to connect with advisors, but to find the right advisor to connect with, someone that she could harmonize with appropriately, she and her husband. So I thought that was a little bit surprising because working with financial advisors, as I do on a daily basis, I’m aware of most of them saying that their biggest challenge is finding a client. So here were clients who couldn’t find an advisor. That was just incredible to me, but certainly was a true fact. I don’t know, Ramsey, did you pick up anything else?

Ramsey D Smith:
Yeah, well there were lots of interesting things. It was a very good cross section of folks. And importantly, I don’t think anybody, I don’t think anybody would have been considered high net worth. I think they were anything from sort of, call it middle class, somewhere in sort of the low to mid part of mass affluent, David if that makes sense,

David Macchia:
Yeah, I think that’s

Ramsey D Smith:
in

David Macchia:
fair.

Ramsey D Smith:
that range.

David Macchia:
Absolutely.

Ramsey D Smith:
And I thought that was important because, right, that’s an important audience, right? Like that’s most people, that’s probably most Americans. And I think that the financial advisory system as it’s set up, it’s very human capital driven, and there’s lots of good reasons for that. And it’s, in some ways it’s expensive, and in some ways it should be, because human capital should be expensive, right? because it’s very valuable and et cetera. But unfortunately I think that’s a construct that lends itself towards focusing on wealthier clients. So one of the challenges here that was very clear is that most of these folks might have fallen under the radar, not all of them, but a few of them might have otherwise fallen under the radar for a lot of financial advisors. Now one of the amazing things, and big credit to again, in the audience is there were a number of advisors who put their hand up and said I’d be happy to help one or more of the folks on the panel. I thought that was great because the quality and the skill sets of the advisors that were there were really, really top, top, top flight. One of the… A couple, there were really, of the four or five people that were up on the panel, there were two that were, in my mind, most striking. So one was a couple. The wife worked in the federal government. Husband was a police officer, like a senior police officer, and both of them had pensions. And although they were not without concern about what. lay ahead for retirement, I think that you could see somewhat less tension about it than maybe with some of the other folks on the panel who didn’t really have the baseline guaranteed income. And that was quite notable. I think they were quite lucky to be in that

David Macchia:
You know,

Ramsey D Smith:
position.

David Macchia:
that’s a really good point, Ramsey, because that highlights the advantage of a floor, right, and how

Ramsey D Smith:
Yeah.

David Macchia:
important that is. And it was very clear you’re right, that the other people were very nervous about the future, not certain how they were going to be able to maintain their lifestyle at all. And without that floor income, that certain income, you know, they’re right to feel that anxiety for sure.

Tisa Rabun-Marshall:
Ramsey, did you discuss it all on that panel or at the conference about how and where to go to find those new types of clients? I heard you say, David, that there’s this group of consumers that say they’re looking for an advisor and they can’t find it. And there’s advisors that are looking for new clients and can’t find them. So clearly whatever, not necessarily clearly, but I’m gonna assume that whatever referral source, which is typically word of mouth that they’re using isn’t lending to… leading to the next client. So did they talk at all about strategies of like. technology, places, forums, marketing, ways that they should be looking differently for new clients, because it seems like that’s,

David Macchia:
Yeah,

Tisa Rabun-Marshall:
I guess

David Macchia:
I mean,

Tisa Rabun-Marshall:
where the disconnect is.

David Macchia:
I don’t think there was much discussion among advisors about how to market, but it was clearly a message that hit home to me was that advisors need to do more to market.

Tisa Rabun-Marshall:
Mm-hmm.

David Macchia:
They need to make themselves visible and available to people more than they’re doing so right now.

Tisa Rabun-Marshall:
Right. And I reach out of their natural market. I mean, for asking for the same client base

David Macchia:
That’s right.

Tisa Rabun-Marshall:
for the next referral and it’s dried up.

David Macchia:
That’s right. That’s

Tisa Rabun-Marshall:
Yeah.

David Macchia:
right. They’re going to be more proactive, you know, spend some money and market themselves as aggressively as they possibly can because I’m certain they will find customers if they do.

Ramsey D Smith:
I think there’s a few issues here and I’ll sort of lay them out as technology and trust. So trust is always an issue and actually it should be, right? It’s an emotionally charged issue to make a decision around everything you work for your whole life. So there’s the issue of people finding advisors that they feel that they can trust. And then there’s the question of how you actually. deliver sort of that matchmaking electronically, how you deliver the service electronically. And the reason I say electronically is because this is, it’s sort of in this sort of economic stratum, you’re gonna need to have, you’re gonna need to actually employ technology to achieve the kind of scale that’s. that’s needed, he can’t, I don’t think you can have individual advisors, I don’t know if there’s enough, individual

David Macchia:
Yeah,

Ramsey D Smith:
advisors,

David Macchia:
that’s not

Ramsey D Smith:
and

David Macchia:
enough.

Ramsey D Smith:
enough high quality ones, because they have to be good. They can’t just go out and get a designation, they actually have to be quite good at it too, to actually meet that needs of technology is gonna be critical. So no clear answers, I would say, Tissa, but a very poignant, a very poignant lens. into the scope of the challenge and the opportunity.

David Macchia:
And Ramji,

Tisa Rabun-Marshall:
Yeah,

David Macchia:
to your

Tisa Rabun-Marshall:
when

David Macchia:
point

Tisa Rabun-Marshall:
the

David Macchia:
about, I’m sorry, Tizibut, just don’t forget this thought, to your point about enough advisors, you know, one of the themes that came through was that this conference was looking at peak 65, which next year is 12,000 people a day turning age 65. There clearly are not enough advisors to handle this. And you’ll have to wonder what’s gonna fill the gap there. Is it gonna be technology? Is it gonna be a GPT front end to a… a virtual advisor that works with people. So a lot of interesting things I think, in the near future we’ll see develop.

Tisa Rabun-Marshall:
Yeah, I mean, there’s so many industries that aren’t prepared for the aging population, right? So this is another impact wave coming. Back to your point, Ramsey, on technology, I think that it also solves that barrier of geography, right? So where you live may not be where that next network or circle of clients lives, but you could still service them. And so…

Ramsey D Smith:
Yeah.

Tisa Rabun-Marshall:
becoming more comfortable with technology and servicing clients digitally, whether on zoom or other platforms helps grow where your client base can be. You can be on the East coast and serve people on West coast and vice versa, because we all know there’s concentrations of certain, um, you know, consumer basis in particular geographical areas. So another play for technology there too.

Ramsey D Smith:
Sure.

Bruno Caron:
And in terms, going back to that consumer panel, did you both observe any traditional or perhaps maybe new interesting findings between men and women? We all know it’s a very important topic within the retirement planning space. I think it can have various ways to approach different issues, anything on that topic.

David Macchia:
Well, specifically from the panel, Bruno, I’m not sure that that came through to me, but I know in my comments, I talked about this revolution, this upcoming revolution where wealth assets are transitioning to the control of women, which we’re all aware of.

Ramsey D Smith:
you

David Macchia:
But I do not think that the industry is prepared for it. But I think it augurs well for protected income because the research is pretty clear that a majority of women in the boomer age group. literally worry about upliving their income. I mean, that’s just an open invitation to serve women with the annuities that can provide the income security they need. I know Ramsey, did you come up with anything from the panel in that

Ramsey D Smith:
Well,

David Macchia:
context?

Ramsey D Smith:
it was interesting. So the panel was four women and one man, if I remember correctly. And I would say it’s interesting. So the gentleman, he both, as I mentioned before, he both had a very generous pension relative to his salary, but he also had said he just really hadn’t thought about it. That

David Macchia:
Yeah.

Ramsey D Smith:
was interesting, because everybody else had been much more sort of.

David Macchia:
Right?

Ramsey D Smith:
stressing about it, he really hadn’t thought about it until sort of relatively recently. Lucky for him, he’s got something that works. And again, my takeaway from that was, well, that’s kind of what I think many of us need. We don’t really entirely think about social security because we’re made to have it, right? And that was the case with the fine benefit pension plans, as was the case with this gentleman. And, and. That’s why certainly my view, which I articulated on the panel that I participated in, is that as much as possible, we need to give people, we need to give people protected income, and then explain to them why they should hang on to it, why they should keep it.

David Macchia:
Default them.

Ramsey D Smith:
I think that is sort of an important. important element I think of success here. And that seems to be consistently, when systems have worked, i.e. social security and traditional pension plans, it’s because they have not been optional. You get them, and then once you get them, nobody wants to let them go, which says a lot.

Bruno Caron:
It still amazes me how everyone feels that the benefit of protected income is amazing. And that was made by Professor Merton in the Doug Orchard’s film not that long ago. It was made repeatedly that this benefit is amazing and unbelievable. Yet no one buys it. When you actually have to cut a check to actually get that. It is just not happening. So yeah, I think that speaks to the entire disconnect that you’ve been discussing all along this episode, but also for the last

David Macchia:
Yeah.

Bruno Caron:
10 plus years.

David Macchia:
And part of that, Bruno, I think revolves around a skepticism in the marketplace, which has been developed over the years by a lot of annuity adverse advertising and communications, which I believe has had a real impact on the public psyche about annuities. The obvious example is Ken Fisher, but it’s others.

Ramsey D Smith:
I was gonna say, does that voice have a name, David? Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha

Bruno Caron:
Hehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehe

David Macchia:
Yeah, that voice does have a name. And

Paul Tyler:
Hahaha.

David Macchia:
I began my comments by saying that, although I’ve never met the individual in person, I’ve disliked the guy named Ken Fisher for a long time for his views on annuities. But that’s done a lot of damage. I hate to give him credit for anything, but that’s done a lot of damage. And we have to work really hard to surmount and educate. and move past that sort of adverse dogma, if you will.

Tisa Rabun-Marshall:
On that point of education, I just wanted to go, I wonder, and I’m in a room full of men, so correct me. Feel free to correct me.

Bruno Caron:
Hehehehe

Tisa Rabun-Marshall:
But sort of, the education, I guess where I was gonna go is I don’t know that it’s only women that value protected income or have fears about retirement or outliving, it’s probably the question of who was willing to get up in a public forum and say that they have the problem or say that they had questions. And where I’m going with that is I think it’s probably more acceptable. If we’re going to talk about gender roles, or I’ll generalize a little bit by gender and say that it’s probably a little more acceptable for a woman to say, like, I need help with this, or I don’t understand this, or I’m worried about this. And maybe in a public setting, and in particular on a panel in front of a room full of strangers, men may have shied away from the opportunity to get up and say that they didn’t know something or they didn’t understand something. So I guess where I’m going with that is it seems like… in the industry or at the advisor level, there’s an opportunity to remove the stigma or maybe even shame of not knowing the answer, feeling fear, not feeling like you haven’t planned well enough, some of those kind of emotions that come around planning our money.

David Macchia:
Heh.

Tisa Rabun-Marshall:
So just a thought there.

David Macchia:
There’s a lot behind that thought. And you’re describing sort of the inherent weaknesses of males, I think, to some extent.

Tisa Rabun-Marshall:
I wasn’t going there.

David Macchia:
But

Bruno Caron:
Hehehehehehehehehehehehe

David Macchia:
I think in comparison to females, we do have some weaknesses. And they’re significant. And we don’t communicate as well. And we don’t necessarily admit that we want to know. And when we get lost, I mean, think about before GPS. How often you’d be reluctant to go into the gas station and ask for directions. I know some people listening can’t even that that was a thing, but it was a thing. And my wife would say, you know, go ask for directions. No, I know how to get to, you know,

Bruno Caron:
Hehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehe

David Macchia:
202 Main Street, you know.

Tisa Rabun-Marshall:
Yes.

Ramsey D Smith:
It was the meme before meme exists. That was

Tisa Rabun-Marshall:
I’m

Ramsey D Smith:
like

Tisa Rabun-Marshall:
going

Ramsey D Smith:
a

Tisa Rabun-Marshall:
to say

Ramsey D Smith:
real

Tisa Rabun-Marshall:
right.

Ramsey D Smith:
thing.

Paul Tyler:
Yes.

Ramsey D Smith:
Yeah.

Tisa Rabun-Marshall:
It’s an interesting idea that retirement is a destination. But yeah,

Bruno Caron:
Hehehehe.

Tisa Rabun-Marshall:
there’s

Bruno Caron:
Hehehehe.

Tisa Rabun-Marshall:
got to be a path or a map to get there. Right? So yeah.

Paul Tyler:
Well,

David Macchia:
For sure.

Paul Tyler:
maybe just shift the conversation just a little bit because, you know, clearly there’s this… there’s a supply and demand problem that’s not easy to… easy to figure out how to solve. What about other… the roles of other players in making it easier to get playing support? Put two on the table. I’m very curious to get both your perspectives and hear if it was discussed. One is the workplace. Here in the US, for whatever historical reason we’ve attached your healthcare benefits to your employer, right? Now during the pandemic, employers are offering mental health assistance. It’s almost a race for… the benefits you can offer to keep your employees happy, not looking for jobs and recruit others, should financial planning be a component that should be baked into every single plan? The other is the government, Ramsey. Should the government just say, you must… You know, we made this Secure Act 3.0 is you must buy an annuity. You know, I mean, what… Two players. You know, David, I’ll start with you. Can employers do more? Should the government do more?

David Macchia:
I wish I had a crystal ball, but I will tell you my guess. I think that the revolution may be led in plan, where the, and now Ramsey is probably better one to comment on this because he’s innovating in this area, but I can see 401k developing into literally one account for life. And when plan sponsors wanting to keep assets in plan and 401k turning into a post retirement vehicle. I think that would be revolutionary were it to happen. It would dislocate a lot of things and disrupt a lot of things when it happens, but I kind of feel it’s inevitable that it will happen. I don’t know, Ramsay, if you agree with me on that.

Ramsey D Smith:
So David, first off, very well said on all those salient points. These are the, on the panel that David and I were on, we were all asked to come up with sort of three key issues. So my three issues, if I can remember them correctly, one was that education cannot possibly be executed as quickly as personal financial plans need to be executed. So education is important. directionally important. It’s what we all do and And it will remain a key goal of what what all of us Sorry, I think I muted my mic. So I was saying that education is super important, but it. generally takes longer for any of us to get educated on what we need to do for our personal finances than it does for us, sort of the required action that needs to be taken. So it goes back to what I was saying about, I think a lot of this needs to be done for us, and I think that the best place to do that is in the workplace. Whether or not the government can do it, I mean, the government’s got its hands full with so many other things right now, including just making sure social security is adapted to the changing economic environment. My bet remains, on the workplace. I think the workplace is particularly valuable because we talked about something earlier, which was technology and trust. And I think technology and trust, the workplace can be a nexus point for both of those things. If you tend to trust your employer for a variety of reasons, you may not like your employer, but they provide a lot of services to you that you trust or accept. and sort of enroll with the punches, so I think that’s very important. And in the workplace, there are the resources to actually create technology that can deliver the services, so that’s certainly my view. And the last item I brought up, so I said it was. It was. Education is great but isn’t fast enough. The second one was the workplace is gonna be the place where the problem can be solved. And the last one is that we need to be simple and scalable which we’ve talked about previously. And that hits on David’s point that he just made about what was the, how did you describe it? The

David Macchia:
Wanna come for life?

Ramsey D Smith:
one account for life, yes, absolutely.

David Macchia:
You know,

Paul Tyler:
interest

David Macchia:
I think it’s ironic. I’m old enough to remember when I came into the insurance business that the insurance industry was sort of the America’s custodian of pension assets. And that shifted away to the defined benefit world and investment management world. And I think it’s ironic that the insurance industry may go back to more prominence in terms of pensions via the same disruptive force that caused it to decline. I just think that would be a strange and ironic outcome that is perhaps likely to happen.

Ramsey D Smith:
Let’s

Paul Tyler:
Yeah,

Ramsey D Smith:
take

Paul Tyler:
well…

Ramsey D Smith:
it one step further. Now to the entire, the challenge to the insurance industry is now’s your chance.

David Macchia:
Right.

Ramsey D Smith:
The mutual

David Macchia:
Right.

Ramsey D Smith:
fund industry ate our lunch for decades.

David Macchia:
Yeah.

Ramsey D Smith:
Now’s our chance to take it back.

Paul Tyler:
Yeah,

David Macchia:
That’s right.

Paul Tyler:
well, you know, on that note, I actually, my cousin actually sent me a book on the foundings of Vanguard, and I thought, yeah, okay, I know the story. I didn’t really know the story. For anybody who is interested, I don’t have the copy with me, but Vanguard didn’t happen the way you might have thought

David Macchia:
Yeah,

Paul Tyler:
it did, right?

David Macchia:
Bagel had

Paul Tyler:
And,

David Macchia:
a fight for it. He fought for that. He struggled.

Paul Tyler:
yeah, and if somebody said, you know, there’s, if you’re… You’re going to change something. There’s usually a good reason, and then there’s a real reason. And we will eventually, I’m confident we’ll get here, but it may not be quite the path we think. Well, we’re at the top of the time. Bruno, any last questions or thoughts here for our Steam panel?

Bruno Caron:
No, thank you for sharing that visit to Washington with basically a group of people that we’ve been lucky to have on the show. And please, through that time, if there’s anyone we have not invited, it’d be great to have them. And of course, some of the quality guests would be good to have again. But thanks for coming and sharing.

David Macchia:
That’s

Paul Tyler:
Yeah.

David Macchia:
my pleasure. By the way, it’s my honor to be on the same panel with Ramsey. I mean, I enjoyed it very much.

Ramsey D Smith:
Ditto right back

Paul Tyler:
Yeah.

Ramsey D Smith:
at you

Paul Tyler:
Well,

Bruno Caron:
I’d

Paul Tyler:
uh-

Bruno Caron:
say you’re both part of the intellectual community of the retirement income space.

Paul Tyler:
The intelligentsia, I like this.

Bruno Caron:
Intelligentsia,

Ramsey D Smith:
Yeah, yeah,

Bruno Caron:
sorry.

Ramsey D Smith:
but we should definitely want to make sure that we acknowledge the the Alliance for lifetime income I mean look we’re sort of inherently partners intellectual partners, you know in

David Macchia:
for

Ramsey D Smith:
our

David Macchia:
sure.

Ramsey D Smith:
in our Devoners in our Devers and It was really it was really a fantastic event was well organized It was well attended. It was really a remarkable thing. So it was delighted to have been invited by

Paul Tyler:
Yeah.

Ramsey D Smith:
them So thank you to the Alliance

Paul Tyler:
Yeah, well,

Bruno Caron:
Was it

Paul Tyler:
you

David Macchia:
Same

Paul Tyler:
know.

Bruno Caron:
as

David Macchia:
for

Bruno Caron:
fun

David Macchia:
me.

Bruno Caron:
as the Rolling Stone concert in Atlanta, or

David Macchia:
Hehehe

Bruno Caron:
how does that compare?

Ramsey D Smith:
Different fun, a different kind of fun, but the Alliance gets credit for that too, so.

Paul Tyler:
Yeah, well, hey, David, thanks for coming on here. I don’t know, do either of you know if they’re going to release synopsises or write-ups of your panels, if people who are listening would like to learn more?

David Macchia:
Good

Ramsey D Smith:
I

David Macchia:
question.

Ramsey D Smith:
think

David Macchia:
I

Ramsey D Smith:
it

David Macchia:
know

Ramsey D Smith:
may

David Macchia:
for

Ramsey D Smith:
be

David Macchia:
the

Ramsey D Smith:
from.

David Macchia:
members there was a

Ramsey D Smith:
Yeah.

Paul Tyler:
Okay,

David Macchia:
video feed. I’m

Ramsey D Smith:
Yeah.

David Macchia:
not

Paul Tyler:
yeah.

David Macchia:
sure if it extends beyond members.

Paul Tyler:
Okay, all right. Well, a good reason for companies to go out and join the Alliance for Lifetime Income, right? If this is good, there should be a good commercial for them, Ramsey.

Ramsey D Smith:
Ha.

David Macchia:
For sure.

Paul Tyler:
Very good commercial

Ramsey D Smith:
All right.

Paul Tyler:
for the next event. All right. Hey, well listen, thanks for your time, and I want to thank our listeners. Definitely share this episode. Share it with your friends. Give us comments, and join us again next week. for another interesting episode of That Annuity Show. Thanks.

Laura Dinan Haber192: A Recap of the Alliance for Lifetime Income Summit With David Macchia
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191: Making Sense of The Financial Markets with David Czerniecki

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How do you explain the turmoil in the financial markets to your clients? Today, we’re replaying a presentation that David Czerniecki, Chief Investment Officer for Nassau Financial Group recently gave to some of our top independent producers. Joe Jordan joins us as a guest host introducing the topic. To see the slides, watch the video version of this on our website.

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Episode Transcript

The discussion is not meant to provide any legal, tax, or investment advice with respect to the purchase of an insurance product. A comprehensive evaluation of a consumer’s needs and financial situation should always occur in order to help determine if an insurance product may be appropriate for each unique situation.

Transcript:

Laura Dinan Haber191: Making Sense of The Financial Markets with David Czerniecki
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190: The State Of The Annuity Market With Scott Hawkins

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Earlier this year, we hosted our second innovation in retirement event called Retiretech 2.0. Scott Hawkins, Managing Director and Head of insurance research at Conning delivered a keynote address on macro trends driving the annuity market today. We play his presentation on this show today.

Learn more about Nassau’s Retiretech Forum 2.0: https://imagine.nfg.com/retiretech-forum-2-0/

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Episode Transcript

The discussion is not meant to provide any legal, tax, or investment advice with respect to the purchase of an insurance product. A comprehensive evaluation of a consumer’s needs and financial situation should always occur in order to help determine if an insurance product may be appropriate for each unique situation.

Transcript:

00;00;00;00 – 00;00;25;12
Speaker 1
Welcome to that annuity show, the podcast that will make you an expert in explaining annuities to your clients. Give us 30 minutes each week and we’ll shave hours from your client presentations. Now here’s your host, Paul Tyler.

00;00;25;15 – 00;00;31;28
Speaker 2
Hi, this is Paul Tyler and welcome to another episode of that annuity show. Ramsey, how are you today?

00;00;31;29 – 00;00;34;23
Speaker 3
Fantastic. Happy Friday.

00;00;34;25 – 00;01;03;28
Speaker 2
Good. Well, you can say that again as it’s been a packed few months. We just I was just at the insurer Tech Hartford Conference on Tuesday and talked to a lot of our friends, a lot of overlap. In fact, Scott Hawkins from Corning was there. I had a chance to sit down and talk to him. And, you know, we actually had him at our retired tech event.

00;01;03;28 – 00;01;05;27
Speaker 2
Ramsey I thought he was a great speaker.

00;01;06;00 – 00;01;32;09
Speaker 3
Yeah, no, he provided a really great industry context, right? There’s a lot of there’s a lot of movement in the industry. There is the industry is growing. We’re seeing, as he put it, changes and names at the top. And as you and I discussed before the call, there’s there’s obviously, you know, an increase of concentration as have a lot of the businesses happening at the top of the league tables.

00;01;32;14 – 00;01;35;19
Speaker 3
But the names of change and that’s pretty significant.

00;01;35;21 – 00;02;10;03
Speaker 2
Yes. So anyway, we had a great conference. We’re going to be sort of slowly rolling content out on this podcast, content that we think will resonate with agents, advisors, people who work for carriers. Scott Clearly has a message that will deliver something for just about everybody who listens to the show. And as you said, there’s a lot of change and technology is right at the heart of a lot of the change that we’re seeing in the industry today.

00;02;10;06 – 00;02;30;20
Speaker 2
And, you know, Scott does an interesting teardown of the financials to actually quantitative. We show how the technology is spending. And I think also from a very unique perspective, how the the employee base is changing as well. So I don’t know any other thoughts. Ramsay, before we run the recording.

00;02;30;21 – 00;02;44;18
Speaker 3
Well, you know, on that last point, I thought it was very interesting that that he had commented that there will be an expanding role for for knowledge workers in our in our industry. I think that’s great in a world which is threatening knowledge workers.

00;02;44;20 – 00;03;15;13
Speaker 2
So it’s it’s going to take our all our jobs away. So with that, we’ll roll the tape and listen, give us feedback and we’ll look for more content like this in the coming weeks. Thanks. Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Morning. We do it again. Good morning, everyone. There’s the energy we need, Right, Anthony? I’m Tom Buckingham. I’m the chief growth officer at Nassau Financial Group, and I’m responsible for our retail annuity and Medicare supplement businesses.

00;03;15;15 – 00;03;34;15
Speaker 2
You’ll hear from some of my counterparts today as we transition between between sessions. I want to thank Paul and Laura for setting this up and for Anthony and Mary and anyone else who’s helping out with this. And Shiva in the Capgemini team for hosting us. This is a fantastic space. I think Paul and Shiva did a great job setting up the day.

00;03;34;16 – 00;04;01;04
Speaker 2
Why the focus on retire tax? Why is it important? And looking forward to hearing dialog today around that and how we can all help solve some of the problems that were outlined? I want to welcome Scott Hawkins from Corning. Scott is a managing director and head of Insurance Research at CONNING in Hartford. He’s been there for over 15 years and he’s been a great partner in the Hartford insurance ecosystem.

00;04;01;04 – 00;04;18;18
Speaker 2
I know we have several folks down from Hartford, but without further ado, I want to I have the pleasure today of introducing him and bring him up. And he’s going to talk about the state of the annuity industry, which I think ties in. Well with the interest we’ve had so far. So let’s give Scott a warm welcome.

00;04;18;20 – 00;04;53;06
Speaker 4
Thanks, Tom. Welcome. Good morning, everyone. I also want to extend my thanks to Paul and Laura and everyone at the Nassau team for inviting me here today to speak with you. As I said, you know, I am Scott Harkins. I’m with Connie. And make sure I get the right way to go. You it again down here? Yeah, I’m just trying to.

00;04;53;07 – 00;05;15;11
Speaker 4
There we go. We’re speaking to you today about the state of the annuity industry. Now, I know that I am the only person standing between you and lunch and networking, but I do want to spend about 20 minutes talking about this topic. Leave a little room for Q&A. I want to start by asking you a question. Why should you really care about the state of the annuity industry?

00;05;15;14 – 00;05;37;08
Speaker 4
Well, if you’re an insurer, this understands the competitive landscape that you’re in business in who you’re competing against, how that’s changing the landscape. If you’re a consumer or an advisor. Annuities will likely be one of the key product solutions for guaranteeing retirement income that you will have in your tools and understanding what’s going on in the annuity industry.

00;05;37;14 – 00;05;58;25
Speaker 4
It’s going to make you a better consumer and a better advisor. And if you’re a retired tech, understanding what’s going on in the annuity industry will help you better understand the needs and wants of the customers you’re trying to sell product to. Well, let me start first with a quick commercial. Who’s counting? How many of you know who Corning is?

00;05;58;25 – 00;06;20;05
Speaker 4
Raise your hands up. Wow. That’s really impressive. We are a global asset manager. We focus on managing assets for insurance companies like PNC and Health. We have four very large annuity clients that we manage assets for. One of the ways we distinguish ourselves in the marketplace is with our insurance research. That’s the group I head up. It’s about 20 individuals.

00;06;20;05 – 00;06;42;05
Speaker 4
We provide top level strategic research on the key issues and themes that are affecting profitability. Our customers and consumers are CEOs, CIOs, CFOs. But let me start with what I’m really hearing today. I want to touch base on the five themes we see in insurance research that’s affecting the annuity industry in 2023. Starting at the top is the economy.

00;06;42;05 – 00;07;13;06
Speaker 4
It’s always the economy going clockwise. I’ll touch base on competition. What’s going on in the competition within the annuity industry. And there the key words are consolidation. Consolidate and consolidation. Then I’m going to talk about the restructuring of the annuity balance sheets, the emergence of new players and the attention that that’s drawing and the opportunities that’s creating. I’ll then touch base on the secure Acts one and two, which is, we think, going to completely transform the annuity industry over the coming decade.

00;07;13;08 – 00;07;40;25
Speaker 4
And finally, I want to touch base on technology, an area that has helped driving innovation and efficiency across the insurance industry. With the annuity industry being no different, let’s start with the economy. What you’re seeing here is the impact of inflation and the Fed’s efforts to try and combat that. You’re looking at the ten year Treasury yield. That’s the spiky little line with the rate increases up through the end of the year.

00;07;41;00 – 00;08;06;08
Speaker 4
I don’t have the one that just occurred on that. That’s likely to continue. So why is the interest rate world and interest rates such an important thing? And why isn’t this increase good for annuities? Well, annuities are essentially spread products, especially on the fixed side. Those general account assets earn a return. Part of that return gets passed on to the contract holder in the form of a crediting rate.

00;08;06;10 – 00;08;27;11
Speaker 4
Some of those crediting rates, though, have been under pressure as interest rates have decreased. So there’s been a squeeze on the spread margins enjoyed by a lot of annuity insurers. That’s put pressure on profitability. Rising interest rates are a good thing for portfolio yields and ultimately for the crediting rates that are being paid to annuity clients. Let me give you an example of how that looks.

00;08;27;14 – 00;08;55;17
Speaker 4
What you’re looking at here is something we’ve been doing accounting research since 2010. The columns that you’re looking at or the actual book yields, that’s net investment income over average general account assets for the insurance industry, life insurance industry from 2010 through 2021. 2022. Data is just coming in, as you see, that has been going down from about 4.7% to somewhere around 3.8% over this ten year period.

00;08;55;20 – 00;09;20;18
Speaker 4
That’s the squeeze on profitability. Now, you’ll see the two lines out there, something we again have been doing since 2010 is trying to forecast where portfolio yields might go. The actuaries on our team can sort of project the assets rolling off what new sales would be coming in, what interest rates might do. The orange line was the early baseline scenario that we saw in the start of 2020 when we did our forecast.

00;09;20;21 – 00;09;50;28
Speaker 4
Remember the interest rate environment in still forecasting to go down? We continue to see a decrease in portfolio yields. But what actually happened last year, those interest rates went up and last year we reforecast and you see that the blue line. Finally, portfolio yields will start to increase and improve and that’s really important for the profitability of the insurance industry, but it also affects product sales because what’s going on in the economy are interest rates going up with crediting rates.

00;09;50;29 – 00;10;16;10
Speaker 4
Is the equity market volatile? Is going up. Those will determine the types of products that consumers generally like to buy. What you’re looking at here is the direct statutory premium by product for Vas in the dark blue, indexed in the medium blue and fixed annuities in the lighter blue. And you see the Vas have been bouncing along. They were extremely strong in 2021 because that distributors were able to go back to business.

00;10;16;12 – 00;10;41;20
Speaker 4
People could emerge from COVID. The economy was recovering. The stock market was relatively strong last year, not so much glimmer reports that 2022 VA sales were off about 20%. But that, of course, follows a 16% increase the year before. Now, when you look at that decrease, that’s really partially driven by the traditional variable annuities. It does not include the increase.

00;10;41;20 – 00;11;08;03
Speaker 4
It was about 6% last year for real estate sales. They are technically categorized as a VA and on a statutory filing, that’s where you will find them. What you will see though, is the huge spike in fixed rates in fixed annuity sales, crediting rates really drove that. And I’ll give you an example of that annuity rate watch dot com January 2020 two’s average crediting rate for a five year mega was 1.94%.

00;11;08;05 – 00;11;34;15
Speaker 4
In December they reported it was 4.34%. When you have that huge increase in crediting rates, you’re going to attract people who are saying, I can go in there, get the tax deferral for the fixed annuity, I get the option for a news organization when I do retire, I’m getting a pretty good crediting rate on that. What you see on the right hand side is our forecast at conning, because we forecast these for three years of what we think sales will continue to do.

00;11;34;17 – 00;12;01;03
Speaker 4
We think VA sales will recover partially driven by our relays, but also the fact that there will be continued interest. I’ll be lower for traditional Vas if interest rates continue to be strong. Fixed annuities will be popular and indexed Annuities are still popular, but we think all relays will take some of their thunder. So I’ll switch to the second area, which is the landscape that insurers are competing in.

00;12;01;05 – 00;12;31;14
Speaker 4
As I said, it’s one of concentration and consolidation. What you’re looking at here on the left hand side is the direct premium market share for the individual annuity line for 2017 through 2021. 2020 to date is just coming out, but it doesn’t really change the picture. I’ve just started to take a look at that. What you basically see is the top 25 insurers average about 80 to 83% of all direct premium that’s generated and the top ten do average about half of all that premium.

00;12;31;20 – 00;12;56;11
Speaker 4
It’s a very, very concentrated market in terms of who the big players are. And that’s important because these big players can command distributors shelf space and I’ll touch base on that a little bit later. But even though it’s concentrated, it is not stagnant. And I think this is an important thing. Chapter understanding because it drives a lot of the reason that annuity insurers are constantly looking to improve their product and attract and retain distributors and find a new solution.

00;12;56;14 – 00;13;22;11
Speaker 4
What you’re looking at on the right are the ranking position changes for the top 25 carriers last year, 2021 and what do I mean by a position change? Well, if you were 11th and you went to third or the other way around, you’ve moved eight spots in the ranking tables over that period of time. 13 of those 25 top 25 companies in 2021 had five or more place changes in this five year period of time.

00;13;22;14 – 00;13;47;15
Speaker 4
So even though it is concentrated, that ranking changes and our analysis shows what changes, that is a lot of product appeal which ties back to the market. If crediting rates are good and you’ve got a strong fixed annuity portfolio, sales will go up and your rankings will go up. On the other hand, if you’re a VA player and people are favoring our allies or fixed, your ranking might go down unless the market increases.

00;13;47;18 – 00;14;18;13
Speaker 4
So concentrated but fluid and that fluidity is what drives a lot of product development, a lot of sales to try and always maintain or increase your rankings. When talk about consolidation, what you’re looking at here is now shifting to the distributors that are out there. This is the M&A activity by year 18 through 2022 for asset managers, insurance agencies and broker dealers, asset managers, re registered investment advisors.

00;14;18;13 – 00;14;37;26
Speaker 4
Our eyes, as you see here that’s been bouncing around has been increasing. It’s been a trend that we’ve been following and we see a couple of reasons why it’s going to likely continue. First, you have a lot of agencies and asset advisors, managers who are looking to retire. They’re my age or older and they’re looking to sell their business on.

00;14;37;29 – 00;15;00;18
Speaker 4
Second reason, the cost of doing business is going up because of the regulatory issues that you have the need to invest in technology to meet those regulatory changes as well. Streamline your business. And then finally, you have the fact that there is private equity backing a lot of what we would refer to as aggregators. Those aggregators are looking to go out and acquire a lot of small firms that are looking to sell their books of businesses.

00;15;00;20 – 00;15;20;15
Speaker 4
What does this mean? If you’re an annuity insurer, you’re competing for shelf space. You’re looking to always attract and retain that. And when there’s an acquisition, you might lose that shelf space or you might have to compete in order to maintain that because the new buyer may have a different set of of of products that they want to represent.

00;15;20;17 – 00;15;51;00
Speaker 4
So this is going on. We think it’s going to continue to go on this year and for the likely future. One reason is seen here what you’re looking at here are the number of insurance agencies on the left and the number of investment advisory firms on the right by the number of employees that work for them. You will see that in both cases, the vast majority of the distributors that are out there are small shops, five employees or less.

00;15;51;03 – 00;16;12;28
Speaker 4
There’s an awful lot of these companies out here. And remember, I mentioned they’re facing issues around the need to pay for technology. They’re thinking about retirement. That’s sort of the supply for a lot of these aggregators. Makes it a very tough business to be an advisor. Always has been, always will be for the insurance companies. So the annuity carriers.

00;16;13;00 – 00;16;36;00
Speaker 4
This also means that their wholesaling operations have to be top notch because they now have to reach a lot of small shops. They have to be really efficient at scale, means they have to establish relationships with Imo’s. They can effectively go out and manage those relationships. The technologies that they’re using are changing the nature of both. Imo’s We see the I’m most competing more on the technologies they can now offer to these small shops.

00;16;36;02 – 00;16;59;12
Speaker 4
Come join our firm, our group. You’ll get access to better technology, but also the new the insurers themselves, their wholesalers have to go out and offer this material. So M&A is going to continue because of private equity and a lot of the reasons I mentioned. But there’s an awful lot of shops and annuity insurers are going to have to continue to focus on servicing a lot of small advisory firms.

00;16;59;15 – 00;17;23;02
Speaker 4
I want to switch to the third area that is shaping and has reshaped this annuity industry, and that’s the restructuring of the annuity balance sheets that are done by the annuity insurers. For us, it’s a question of supply and demand. You see the supply on the left. Those are the insurance companies out there that have and still have large blocks of annuity liabilities on their balance sheets.

00;17;23;02 – 00;17;41;29
Speaker 4
They have those reserves. They need the assets to back those up. A lot of those are looking to remove those liabilities off their balance sheets. And they’re doing it for a couple of reasons. First, a lot of those blocks of business have crediting rates on those fixed annuities that are higher than what they’re earning on their portfolios. That margin squeeze I was referring to.

00;17;41;29 – 00;18;11;03
Speaker 4
Right. They want to get that off because of the profitability on those older bucks earnings volatility. Fixed annuities, interest rates go down. You need to increase reserves and statutory basis. You see those reserves impacting the bottom line o your VA business. Well, equity markets get volatile. Two things happen. You have to increase reserves to cover the guaranteed benefits you put in there, but also the robust hedging programs that you have in place to manage that become more expensive when markets are volatile.

00;18;11;06 – 00;18;34;02
Speaker 4
And third, insurers are looking to redeploy that capital to other areas that they might find have higher growth potential for their business or simply to return to shareholders. Now, on the demand side, you’ve seen the emergence of new insurers. Reinsurers often backed by asset management companies or private equity firms that are out there actively acquiring closed, blocked business.

00;18;34;04 – 00;18;54;28
Speaker 4
They’re also starting to write business. And I’ll talk a little bit more about these in detail in just a moment. But from our perspective, this dynamic will continue because there’s still a lot of assets out there. A lot of insurance companies are looking to redeploy capital and remove some of those. And the desire among those buyers of those liabilities still remains and it’s likely to increase.

00;18;54;28 – 00;19;17;27
Speaker 4
And by the way, we happen to think the emergence of these new carriers is actually a positive for the annuity industry because what they represent is new capital coming into the annuity space, buying liabilities and supporting growth. And we’ve looked at the need for capital to come in and support the annuity industry. It’s going to be great over the next ten years as we start to realize the benefits of the Secure Act.

00;19;17;29 – 00;19;44;09
Speaker 4
The annuity industry will need capital, it will need to attract it, and other examples of companies are doing it. So who are some of these? What you’re looking at? There are just the high level insurance restructurings since 2017, 20, 2022. You see the names here. These are multibillion dollar transfers of liabilities from an established carrier to one of these new companies coming in here.

00;19;44;11 – 00;20;06;03
Speaker 4
It is a really, really important activity. It’s reshaping the business and they are starting to really expand their business to start writing new business. In fact, if you look, I just pulled the numbers. I’m just going to look at it. But the number one company that generated direct individual annuity premium in 2022 on a statutory basis was one of these players.

00;20;06;06 – 00;20;26;09
Speaker 4
I won’t give the same away, but it starts with an A that would vary by product. I want to be very clear on that. Different products have different leaders, but overall that company was these companies are writing business and in doing so they’re also attracting the attention of regulators and consumer groups who are uncertain about what’s going on with them.

00;20;26;12 – 00;20;48;13
Speaker 4
They look at the fact that they are owned by private equity companies or asset management companies, and they’re uncertain about that relationship. And that’s attracting a lot of regulatory attention from the NRC, S.E.C. and Congress. Part of that, we think and I’ve been writing a lot about this, I’ll talk later if if you want to talk. We think part of that is the misunderstanding by groups looking at it.

00;20;48;13 – 00;21;16;29
Speaker 4
The don’t understand the reinsurance that they’re using, why they’re being offshored and how they’re structuring their business. Part of it, though, is because some of those companies are not the most transparent or opaque when it comes to being able to understand their business model and where risk lies. But here’s what’s happening with this business, with these players. As more and more of those companies were created, they started going after the same blocks of business.

00;21;17;01 – 00;21;41;18
Speaker 4
The early entrants were able to acquire those closed fixed income blocks at a really great ROI. More competition has led to higher costs and lower ROIC for those carriers. As a result, we see them already starting to move beyond looking for closed block business or writing new business. These are the five areas we think and have already seen some of these players move into variable annuities.

00;21;41;20 – 00;22;12;00
Speaker 4
There’s a lot of variable annuity liabilities out there. Last year we saw Talcott repacking some up. We also saw a venerable picking some of those up, as well as Talcott picked up some universal life from second gear, secondary guarantees, variable annuities, individual life insurance, we think will be liabilities that they’ll be looking at pension risk transfer. For those of you that don’t know, that’s when a defined benefit plan takes a block of its retirees and transfers those liabilities to an insurance company through an annuity contract.

00;22;12;02 – 00;22;31;07
Speaker 4
Some of these companies are already actively involved with this, as well as some of the large established players. Pensioners transfers will continue to go. Funding agreement backed securities had been a very hot market up until last year. We’ll see how they’ve done. But a funding agreement is a type of annuity contract sold on an institutional basis similar to a.

00;22;31;10 – 00;22;58;01
Speaker 4
Those can be packaged up into a asset backed security and sold an institutional investor. Oftentimes, those are stable value funds that end inside of for one K through playing in that space and finally purchasing credit origination platforms such as an aircraft leasing company. What you see there is companies acquiring a source of private credit, which these companies are using to increase their investment return by buying the sources of credit.

00;22;58;01 – 00;23;25;12
Speaker 4
They can fund that themselves. I want to switch now to the Secure Act and what we think will be the big market that you’re looking at here. So variations of this earlier, but this is the retirement plan assets since 2000 broken down by DC plans DB plans IRAs and that little green block are annuities. There are some annuities by the way, inside IRAs and Eisai tracks them that way.

00;23;25;14 – 00;23;45;15
Speaker 4
This is a great opportunity for insurers. Now, they’ve been playing in this space for a while, but the secure acts really open up the market for DC plans to come in here because it removes some of the hindrances around plan sponsors fiduciary concerns about putting an implant annuity. This is opening up this market, but it’s going to take time.

00;23;45;18 – 00;24;08;18
Speaker 4
The carriers have to build the networks to interface with the plan. Sponsors and the record keepers, and that goes both ways. That will take time, but will not happen overnight. But we do anticipate over the coming decade, DC plans for one K plans will become a major source of annuity growth. This is what we look at when we were looking at secure 2.0 act.

00;24;08;20 – 00;24;32;01
Speaker 4
What this really is doing is is creating a four generation opportunity for the annuity insurers, right? Traditionally, we’ve been focused a lot on baby boomers because they were the ones who been saving and now moving into retirement. Right. But with secure 2.0 and secure 1.0, that’s opening up the DC plan space for savers and Generation X millennials and soon to be Generation Z’s.

00;24;32;03 – 00;24;56;02
Speaker 4
What does this mean and why is this so important? Because think about it. The 4001k, which is the currently the bedrock for most people’s retirement savings, was never, ever designed to be a retirement income solution. It was a retirement savings solution. It became the default savings solution. And now people are trying to figure out how do I take these assets and turn it to a retirement income?

00;24;56;04 – 00;25;20;26
Speaker 4
Secure 2.0. With the introduction of any plan annuities has those get built up? Turn the 401k into a true retirement plan. People can accumulate assets and then have the accumulation built into it. When they do retire, annuity insurers will be looking at how they build that out. It opens up a new generation and makes the for one key, in our opinion, a true retirement product.

00;25;20;28 – 00;25;42;06
Speaker 4
I mentioned that annuity insurers had been involved in the for on case space, usually as record keepers or and as you see here, mutual fund companies putting plans in there. We think that, you know, this is going to continue. They’re not going to be getting rid of their mutual fund businesses. But it also starts to point out the bigger thing about the annuity industry.

00;25;42;08 – 00;26;09;28
Speaker 4
At the end of the day, large annuity players are asset managers themselves, whether they get those assets from an annuity sale for a before one k company from a pr T, it doesn’t matter. They’re all focused on gathering and managing assets. If they build out the secure 2.0 act and realize that and they increase sales of spheres to more retirees, will we see a focus shift within these companies to managing longevity risk and how are they going to do that?

00;26;10;04 – 00;26;31;26
Speaker 4
We’ve seen that in the UK since 2000. As a UK, insurers that have large blocks of annuities on their balance sheets have looked to manage longevity risk through things like longevity, reinsurance. Finally, I just want to close on the thing that I know that a lot of you are probably going to be interested about. That’s insurance technology and retired tech.

00;26;31;28 – 00;27;00;08
Speaker 4
We use insurance technology accounting because that’s an encompassing faith phrase that covers everything, that deals with any technology that touches the insurance industry. So here’s what you’re looking at here. This is the statutory amortized expenses for the life annuity industry in billions from 2008 through 2020. You see around 2013, 14, it really starts to increase. Now, here’s something that puts this number in context.

00;27;00;11 – 00;27;28;17
Speaker 4
For every dollar of reserve liabilities that were increased over this period of time, for every dollar of new business liabilities created. Insurer spent three times that on technology. They’ve been investing heavily in modernizing and transforming their back offices, their user experiences, their age and expenses. This has been across the board big companies, small companies, mutual stock. It is a big thing and hasn’t had an impact.

00;27;28;17 – 00;27;53;13
Speaker 4
That’s the question we will often get asked. Can I see how this is actually playing out on my and my income? Because I’m spending all this money in significant investments? Well, one way we look at it is to sort of say, can you see an improvement in productivity? What you’re looking at here in the dark blue is direct life annuity premium written per employee in thousands.

00;27;53;16 – 00;28;21;21
Speaker 4
The lighter blue line are the number of employees over this period of time, direct premium written has increased about 52%, while headcount has only went up about 13%. Now to us, that suggests that this technology investment is paying dividends. Insurers are able to do more business with fewer people, and the people they have are focused on doing the highly value added activities that support growth and profitability.

00;28;21;23 – 00;28;53;26
Speaker 4
So far, so good, but it’s also transformed the nature of work within the insurance industry. And you see that here 2000 to 2021. This is the change in employees by major occupational groups within the life insurance industry. Over this period of time, office and admin support occupations have seen a 20% decrease in the number of employees in those fields in the insurance industry.

00;28;53;29 – 00;29;31;20
Speaker 4
Meanwhile, computer and mathematical operations increased about 58%. Managerial skills increase as well. You’ll also notice something else. Look at the $101,530 161 $910. That’s the average salary for somebody in this industry in those fields. They’ve gotten rid of a lot of low paid employees that were doing the administrative clerical tasks. Their jobs have been automated. They’ve been replaced with very, very expensive, highly demanded expertise and skills.

00;29;31;23 – 00;29;55;27
Speaker 4
Those employees are also sought by other financial service companies. And as a result, there’s a huge warrant talent. Rackspace Technology did a survey last year. I think it was about 1400 insurance tech officers and they said the lack of available technology, talent was their number one challenge in achieving growth over the next three years. Now, we’ve had discussions with insurers.

00;29;55;27 – 00;30;21;23
Speaker 4
You know, a lot of times we’ve talked a couple of years ago, if you’re a small regional insurer outside of a large metropolitan area, it was tough to attract that talent. More recently, conversations have shown that with a work from home environment and encouragement that is coming to create some solution to this war for talent. So that’s good for those companies because they can now attract the talent they need.

00;30;21;25 – 00;30;38;04
Speaker 4
Finally, I just want to close base with what we think, and this is what we do accounting twice a year. We forecast the overall industry’s profitability and premiums. This is out of date because we’re just in the middle of doing the new one. Contact me in about two months and I will tell you what the new numbers are.

00;30;38;07 – 00;30;59;02
Speaker 4
But overall, when we look at the annuity space, here’s what we see driving the business forward. One, the demographic trends that Paul mentioned remain in place. People will continue to need to save for retirement and generate retirement income that’s driving sales. We think premium will go up. It will vary from product to product, but overall premium growth will remain positive.

00;30;59;04 – 00;31;21;22
Speaker 4
Profitability, though, is a little bit more difficult because there’s three big factors on a statutory basis that affect profitability. One is reserves. What will reserve changes do? And that’s depends upon interest rates and equity markets. What will happen as far as the need to do transfers from the separate accounts that comes into play? And finally, what will reinsurance do?

00;31;21;23 – 00;31;45;18
Speaker 4
We think reinsurance will continue, and reinsurance on a statutory basis tends to have a negative impact on overall revenue. And with that, I have to play for my compliance department the obligatory compliance slides. They’re happy now, but I’m happy to take any of your questions. I think we’ve got about 2 minutes left for 3 minutes. Otherwise I’ll talk to you at the networking appointment.

00;31;45;20 – 00;31;49;16
Speaker 4
Hey, Warren, how you doing?

00;31;49;19 – 00;32;02;05
Unknown
Heard stresses and strains of the personal financial sector on charge. Okay.

00;32;02;08 – 00;32;26;13
Speaker 4
So. So the question was. So the question was, given the recent stresses in the in the banking system that we’ve seen, how will that to what extent will that affect some of the trends and issues I’ve talked about here? The most direct impact, I think, right now, and one that I think is probably germane and many of you in this audience are thinking about as well as what’s going to be the impact on technology, especially as startup firms are unknown yet.

00;32;26;16 – 00;32;45;29
Speaker 4
I mean, at least they were made, you know, for for a CRB, they at least got their money there. But what will that do to the overall funding and capital availability for startups? You know, you look around, he’s already seen that there was some reticent over 2022 to 4 for new startups. I think that that’s the biggest issue.

00;32;46;02 – 00;33;07;28
Speaker 4
The other issue is what’s it going to do to the interest rates? Will the Fed continue to raise interest rates back off slightly? I don’t make a business of predicting what the Fed will do. I think that something beyond my pay grade. But again, if you saw interest rates drive fixed annuity sales to a great extent and also in the equity market volatility comes out will affect VA sales.

00;33;08;04 – 00;33;14;05
Speaker 4
So I think what the economy will do as a result will be a driver of sales. Stephanie, what.

00;33;14;05 – 00;33;25;20
Unknown
Do you see about the young people joining the workforce and not really saying why am I saving money for the next 60 years for my.

00;33;25;22 – 00;33;46;10
Speaker 4
The question was, what about what would we say to a young person entering the workforce today who’s trying to say, you know, why should I save for something that’s going to happen in 40, 50, 60 years down the road? What I can barely afford at my Starbucks or Peet’s Coffee, I think that is something in a way that will have to happen once they get in there.

00;33;46;10 – 00;34;12;11
Speaker 4
And some of the things in the Secure Act, I think, make that attractive. The ability to have your student loans matched as an opportunity. That’s the thing that will encourage younger savers. I think the fact that they can actually now do automatic enrollment starting in 2025 for new plans with automatic increases that will help generate sales down the road, get people thinking about it, and then simple things like on your 401k statement, how many of you noticed that actually says what your guaranteed annuity income is going to be?

00;34;12;13 – 00;34;41;03
Speaker 4
That’s put in there too, so that people will start to think this is not just a pile of money, this is my retirement income. And so it’s an educational process. I think that’s a crucial thing. But I think some of these changes from secure actor designed to try and enhance that awareness. And with that, I think my time is up, but I’m happy to talk at lunchtime or in time elsewhere on any of these.

00;34;41;06 – 00;35;04;21
Speaker 1
And with that, we’re going to take a break for lunch and networking. We’re going to welcome you all back for some eco resources, some remarks in a few minutes. But please make yourselves at home. Thank you. Thanks for listening. If you’ve enjoyed the show, please rate and recommend us on iTunes, Stitcher, Overcast, or wherever you get your podcasts, you can also get more information at that annuity show dot com.

Laura Dinan Haber190: The State Of The Annuity Market With Scott Hawkins
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Episode 189: How To Build A Market Advising 401(k) Plans with Bonnie Treichel

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With the passage of the SECURE Act 1.0 and 2.0, agents and advisors have a greater opportunity than ever before to help individuals navigate the complexities of their 401(k) plan. Today on our show, Bonnie Treichel, Chief Solutions Officer at Endeavor Retirement, discusses these opportunities and the requirements to enter this space.

Links mentioned in the show:

https://www.linkedin.com/in/bonnietreichel/

https://endeavor-retirement.com/

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Episode Transcript

The discussion is not meant to provide any legal, tax, or investment advice with respect to the purchase of an insurance product. A comprehensive evaluation of a consumer’s needs and financial situation should always occur in order to help determine if an insurance product may be appropriate for each unique situation.

Ramsey D Smith:
Hi and welcome to That Annuity Show. So today we have myself, Ramsey Smith, and Bruno Caren recording live from Atlanta, Georgia and Montreal, Quebec respectively. And our regular lead host, Paul, is out. So we’re going to see what we can do today. We’re very excited about our guest today, Bonnie Trickel, who is the founder of Endeavor Retirement. As many of you in the audience may know, certainly have talked about it a lot. I personally have the view that the opportunity in in plan for annuities is probably the largest. largest and most important asset gathering opportunity for the insurance industry in the next 10 or 15 years. And more importantly, it’s super important for American consumers and retirees. And Bonnie Treichel has been a real leader in this space. So we’re very much looking forward to chatting with her today. So with that, Bonnie, welcome to that Annuity Show. We’re happy to have you. Tell us a bit about yourself and then about Endeavor Retirement.

Bonnie Treichel:
Wonderful. Well, good morning and thank you for having me. I’m really excited to be here on the show this morning Again, my name is Bonnie Trichol. I am live from Kansas City Where I grew up before spending about 15 years on the West Coast. So I’m really excited to talk a little bit about Endeavor Retirement as well as a new law firm that we’ve launched Endeavor Law. Endeavor Retirement, you know, we were kind of talking a little bit before the show about like what is my why and Endeavor Retirement came out of this idea that really advisors needed an opportunity to have resources that for smaller RIAs who want to stay independent and they need those plug and play resources, that’s really where they can come to our firm and they can get their retirement plans to really serve their plan sponsor clients and participants in the most effective and efficient way possible and that’s why Endeavor Retirement was born. So it’s a consulting firm, we work primarily with advisors. One of the other opportunities that we’ve had is to do a lot of training and that training comes through two different partners in the industry that have been really good partners. The American Retirement Association’s division of NAPA, so the plan advisor section and that’s where we’ve created some training including about coming out soon, probably this summer, which is the retirement income certificate. So advisors will be able to sit through this online training program and then get a certificate at the end, but they’ll really learn the basics, some of which we’ll talk about today in the in-plan retirement income space. The other place that I’ve spent some time with a really good partner in the industry is Broadridge’s FI360. Again, they’ve brought together a consortium, the Retirement Income Consortium, and I’ve done a lot of work with them to that program to help create the prudent practices for selecting in-plan retirement income options. So that’s really where I get kind of my excitement for a lot of what we’re doing right now is creating that training for advisors, trying to take these complex topics, break them down, make them simple so that advisors can consume them, and most importantly, go share them with plan sponsors and participants.

Ramsey D Smith:
All right, well thank you for that. So I can’t resist, you mentioned that you also have a law firm that you just started. So tell us a little bit about the role of the law firm and then the next thing we’ll do is we’ll define in plan for the audience for whoever hasn’t focused on it yet. So first of all, tell us about the law firm.

Bonnie Treichel:
Yeah, absolutely. So we started seeing a need again, you know, all of this comes from where we’re watching the need from clients. And so we started seeing a need from some of our advisors that they needed, uh, access to legal advice for themselves, but also for their plan sponsor clients. So, uh, the law firm was again born out of the same model of how can we have cost effective resources for both advisors and their plan sponsor clients. So the model is really, uh, we make it our business to know your business and become integrated into those really help them to keep their legal costs down. And then on the plan sponsor side, really trying to make it cost effective for plan sponsors to do the right thing. So when you think of a VCP filing, for example, trying to do that in a flat fee environment to really help them effectively correct what they need to and be able to move forward. So it’s been a lot of fun starting to launch that second business and do that with partners in the industry.

Ramsey D Smith:
Well, look, that makes a lot of sense to me because what I found since I’ve gotten into this space is that there seem to be like two or three lawyers whose names keep coming up, right, in webinars, et cetera. So it’s good to know there’s some additional competition there.

Bonnie Treichel:
Competition and collaboration. You

Ramsey D Smith:
Well,

Bonnie Treichel:
know, there

Ramsey D Smith:
yeah.

Bonnie Treichel:
are some great attorneys who’ve been just awesome mentors. You know, I enjoy getting to spend time with like a Fred Rich, right? You know,

Ramsey D Smith:
Mm-hmm.

Bonnie Treichel:
I’m sure that’s one of the names you hear coming up over and over.

Ramsey D Smith:
Like 99% of the time that’s the name we hear.

Bonnie Treichel:
That’s right, that’s right. But you know, some of these are just great, great mentors that you can learn a lot from and then help deploy that to additional advisors and plan sponsors.

Ramsey D Smith:
Got it. Okay. So let’s get into it. In plan. What, what is the, what is the in plan opportunity? What are, what are, what are in plan annuities? What are we talking about here for our, for our, for sort of, for our broader audience?

Bonnie Treichel:
Yeah, good question. So, you know, for advisors, it’s funny, when I when I go out and I present, I’m getting a lot of different questions. Some people are further along on their in-plan journey than others who are starting right at the beginning start line here. And so when we think about it and take a step back, it’s like, what is in-plan annuities? Or what are these in-plan retirement income solutions compared to the retail side? And I think, you know, Ramsey, we were talking about how are we defining these solutions? So maybe I’ll take a step back and ask, I think many people are familiar with some of these options that they’re really not new. They’re just getting a lot of new buzz and a lot of new headlines, right? So many of these solutions, just, for example, like Pru’s income flex, right? That’s been around for a very long time. And there’s many others not to pick on Pru one way or the other, right? But it’s just, that’s a name that many of us are familiar with. That’s the type of solution that we’re talking about for several years. I think the question becomes, and let’s come back to this kind of in plan versus out of plan in a minute.

Ramsey D Smith:
Can I ask one question just very quickly?

Bonnie Treichel:
Yeah.

Ramsey D Smith:
Because I think this is great. When you say advisors, specifically what kind of advisors? Because sometimes it might be insurance advisors, sometimes it might be RAs, when we use that term on the show. So I wanna make sure like, what kinds of advisors, for which kinds of advisors is this discussion most relevant? Yeah.

Bonnie Treichel:
Great question. When we’re talking about in-plan retirement income solutions, this is going to be a conversation for someone who’s working with a retirement plan. So a 401k, 403b, those types of plans where you would be adding this solution in the 401k or in the 403b as opposed to selling it in the retail space after an individual has retired and come to you and said, hey, I’d like to purchase this annuity.

Ramsey D Smith:
And what licenses would they need to have? Like, what is this? Is it Series 65? Is it

Bonnie Treichel:
Ha.

Ramsey D Smith:
just an insurance license? What is with a typical? I don’t want to take this too far off track, but I just want to make sure that we want everybody in the audience to know what they need to do in order to sort of be a player in this space.

Bonnie Treichel:
Yeah, so you’re raising actually a really, really great question, which

Ramsey D Smith:
Yeah.

Bonnie Treichel:
is if I am a typical retirement plan advisor, let’s say I’m at an SEC registered firm, an RIA, and I have, for example, my Series 65, the question keeps coming up, do I need an insurance license to do this? What I will say is first, always check with your compliance department. Second, I’m not giving you legal advice, but in most

Ramsey D Smith:
Unless

Bonnie Treichel:
instances…

Ramsey D Smith:
I pay for it at Endeavor Law.

Bonnie Treichel:
That’s right. That’s right. You can pay for it and then I will. But not to the masses. So the question becomes, do you need an insurance license for most of these newer solutions? You should be evaluating that on a solution by solution basis and of course, checking with your compliance department. But what I’m seeing with most of these newer solutions coming to market is that they’re getting the insurance license at the solution level. So for example, that I’m gonna call it DCIO or wholesaler, they’re getting their insurance licenses so that the individual advisor is not required to because that individual advisor is not actually, they’re not making that recommendation of the insurance piece themselves. So again, we could go down a compliance rabbit hole,

Ramsey D Smith:
that’s

Bonnie Treichel:
but

Ramsey D Smith:
fine

Bonnie Treichel:
in general,

Ramsey D Smith:
okay but

Bonnie Treichel:
I think

Ramsey D Smith:
they do

Bonnie Treichel:
that

Ramsey D Smith:
have to be the basic issues they have to be a fiduciary

Bonnie Treichel:
Yeah, I mean, I think so well again, it depends on the role they take so I think

Ramsey D Smith:
Okay.

Bonnie Treichel:
some advisors This is a great conversation because some advisors may take an education only approach

Ramsey D Smith:
Okay?

Bonnie Treichel:
and they may just educate on Retirement income right

Ramsey D Smith:
Okay.

Bonnie Treichel:
so they might educate their plan sponsor They might educate participants and they might decide to work with Someone else in the industry who’s actually going to make that recommendation of the retirement income option now more likely is going to be the case where instead the advisor, the retirement plan advisor, is going to act as a 321, for example, fiduciary under ERISA, and they would actually make that recommendation. But I think it could go either way. So I think advisors have an opportunity to take whatever role they’d like and of course reflect that in their agreement and so forth.

Ramsey D Smith:
Okay, great, thank you. Sorry for moving it to that, but I wanted to make sure,

Bonnie Treichel:
Yeah.

Ramsey D Smith:
I wanna make sure that like, I wanna make sure that folks in the audience understand sort of what they need to pursue the opportunity. So, good.

Bonnie Treichel:
Yeah, so I mean, I think if I interject for a second, we

Ramsey D Smith:
Yeah.

Bonnie Treichel:
recap. I think the big point, if I’m a listener and I’m an advisor, it’s, this is a conversation for retirement plan advisors where on a solution by solution basis, they need to make sure they are evaluating, do they have the proper licenses? And third, checking with their compliance department and making sure they’re in line with that, because I think you’re raising a hugely important point.

Ramsey D Smith:
Okie doke. All right. And so then I had interrupted you were on a role before talking about talking about defining in plan. So if I can we can bring get back to where we left off there would love to do that. So we were defining

Bonnie Treichel:
Oh.

Ramsey D Smith:
in plan.

Bonnie Treichel:
Ramsey, I could get on a roll on this topic and talk for three hours. So you’d really have to stop me. So

Ramsey D Smith:
Okay.

Bonnie Treichel:
when we think about in-plan, I think the question is coming up again, language is important, how we define these things are important. And I think in many ways we’re not totally there yet, right? So I think I define in-plan as something where a plan sponsor is going to make that recommend, not make the recommendation, but the plan sponsor is going to make that selection, right? So there’s some sort of fiduciary oversight for having this option in the plan. I think maybe I’ll turn it over to you because I think you have a different definition of what

Ramsey D Smith:
Ha.

Bonnie Treichel:
in plan versus out of plan is. And I think it’s important because it depends on how

Ramsey D Smith:
Sure.

Bonnie Treichel:
we look at that.

Ramsey D Smith:
So for the audience’s benefit, we were having a discussion before we hit record about the definition of in plan because there are lots of different providers in the space and each of them takes a different approach. As I said at the time, I think Bonnie’s definition, strictly speaking, is probably the right one in that anything that occurs inside the plan, right, irrespective of the timing of when an annuity kicks in, either in the accumulation or decumulation period, is subject to the appropriate level of oversight that Bonnie helps people execute. As somebody who’s sort of focused on the product side and trying to see sort of broader and earlier adoption, for me, the definition of in-plan, or I should say the most effective version of in-plan in my view involves bringing in annuities during the accumulation phase accumulation phase. So anyway, that’s my differentiation. But Bruna, let’s bring you in. Bruna, what are some of your thoughts in this space? So I’m gonna remind everybody, Bruna wrote a book on this topic. So Bruna’s insight’s very important here.

Bruno Caron:
Well thanks and

Bonnie Treichel:
and be a…

Bruno Caron:
I want to go back to the income part that you did mention. When

Bonnie Treichel:
win.

Bruno Caron:
everyone retires, people can have multiple foreign case, multiple IRAs, and you brought the word fiduciary. When you’re fiduciary, technically you want to make sure that you take every single step to make sure that you’ve done the right thing. some fiduciaries to go on the very conservative side and let’s say it’s credit quality, or you’ll go at the, you know, AAA, you know, that kind of approach. When we talk about income,

Bonnie Treichel:
about income.

Bruno Caron:
retirement income, it’s all about striking that right balance. I mean, some people have a lot of pension money and, you know, recommending more income is not necessarily the right answer, but at the same time,

Bonnie Treichel:
But at

Bruno Caron:
more,

Bonnie Treichel:
the same time,

Bruno Caron:
a lot

Bonnie Treichel:
more

Bruno Caron:
of people

Bonnie Treichel:
a lot

Bruno Caron:
don’t

Bonnie Treichel:
of

Bruno Caron:
have enough income. And that’s why we have this conversation today. My question

Bonnie Treichel:
My

Bruno Caron:
is,

Bonnie Treichel:
question

Bruno Caron:
in a fiduciary

Bonnie Treichel:
is, and if you do share your…

Bruno Caron:
context, what are some of the boundaries and some of the guidelines in order to strike that right balance?

Bonnie Treichel:
Yeah, I think that’s a great question. So if I’m a retirement plan advisor and or I’m that plan sponsor and I’m making that fiduciary decision to add an in-plan option to the retirement plan, what are those fiduciary considerations? At the highest level, I think you have a consideration of when we think about the income conversation, it’s am I going to go with something that has a for my plan and its participants based on their demographics. And Bruno, you brought up a good point, right? If I’ve already got a DB plan at this company, do I need to add something with another guarantee? If I have no DB plan, like many of the companies out there today, then that’s gonna be taken into consideration. So step one is do I need a guarantee or not? Manage payout or not? Then when we go from there, then we’re going to start looking at things like if we’re going the guarantee route, this if you’re going to utilize the safe harbor, does this meet the requirements of the safe harbor? And then we go beyond that and have to look at things like balancing the cost and what are the services provided. And when I talk about services provided, those are even things as simple as like what is that employee experience or participant experience? How are they going to understand how to utilize this thing that we’re giving them? But you’re exactly right Bruno, you know, in retirement plans it’s so different than the retail space because as a whole, and we deal with this with target date funds too, right? How are we meeting the needs of this diverse population and looking at them as a whole because we still have to make one decision? So when one participant needs one thing, do we change that for the other 300? And so I think that’s what you’re getting at is like, how does that fiduciary overall look at that to then make that recommendation or determination?

Bruno Caron:
Absolutely. And, you know, one, to your point, I mean, that one employee can be there for, you know, two years in their thirties, while other employees can be there for 40 years and are now close to retirement. There’s one decision that needs to be made for everyone where, you know, these are completely different considerations and demographics and, you know, point in time in people’s lives. So the fact that, you know, those options have to be. available universally

Bonnie Treichel:
universally

Bruno Caron:
within that

Bonnie Treichel:
within

Bruno Caron:
one plan,

Bonnie Treichel:
that one plan.

Bruno Caron:
it makes it tricky

Bonnie Treichel:
It makes it

Bruno Caron:
because

Bonnie Treichel:
tricky.

Bruno Caron:
everyone has their own little story within

Bonnie Treichel:
story within.

Bruno Caron:
the plan.

Ramsey D Smith:
So, you know, it’s interesting. I think this feeds into what I think is an interesting tension in this in any place where there’s some kind of innovation, which is that, and Bonnie, to your point, like all the issues that we identify here already in some sense are paralleled in target date funds. But target date funds have been one of the most important sort of vectors for creating sort of retirement solution for millions of people, right? So I guess the… The question is, you know, how we, what do you think are, what do you think are some of the impediments to adoption here? There’s, so there’ve been some, there’ve been some recent articles, there’s an article in the Wall Street Journal about what Infidelity and State Street are doing, and there’s a lot more buzz, which I think we’re all very excited about. But, you know, what do you think, what do you think is sort of the arc of greater adoption for InPlan over the course of the next three or four years?

Bonnie Treichel:
The three big things that always come

Ramsey D Smith:
Mm-hmm.

Bonnie Treichel:
up

Ramsey D Smith:
Mm-hmm.

Bonnie Treichel:
are cost, complexity, portability. I think those

Ramsey D Smith:
Yeah.

Bonnie Treichel:
are always the three things that come up and

Ramsey D Smith:
Yeah.

Bonnie Treichel:
we can dig into those a little bit more and then where that arc goes because I think that’s the important question. But the three things that you always hear as the questions or big pushback, you can give a great presentation and talk about it, but then it’s, these are too expensive and or the question of what if someone pays for this but they don’t actually use it? to the question of, am I tied to this record keeper forever if I select this income option on this record keeper? How could I move that later if I wanna fire the record keeper, so the portability issue? And then complexity, hey, these are just really complex. And that applies both at the advisor level and the plan sponsor level. I think one of the questions from advisors that I’m getting is, hey, if I’m not making extra money on this, or how am I gonna make extra money? Like, this is a lot of work to learn all of this. So how am I getting paid to learn all this stuff? And Bruno, go back to what you said about this is, you’re a fiduciary, it’s your job to learn it, and it’s your job to know it and recommend it. But again, we have to really think about, how do we overcome those three barriers? One, I think, yes, it’s complex, but I was doing a presentation, I don’t know if you know Mike Sanders from Cap Trust, but he just had such a good quote from this presentation, which was, these are like target date funds 15 years ago. do your first one, learn as you go, and it’ll get easier over time. And I think that was so true, you know, he’s had some success with implementation of some of these solutions. And I think they are complex, but sometimes we’re making them tougher than they are. And so if we just really, you know, break it down, use some of those tools and resources that are really becoming available, it’s not as hard as it seems. So I think that’s one. The cost aspect, when you look at the cost, in plan versus the retail space or when you look at even just over time the cost of how these solutions they are getting much more affordable from what they were ten years ago. So I think you know the cost we could have a whole discussion on fees and cost but I think that is something that’s becoming much more manageable and the portability I would say when we think about that arc of success the portability is coming. So I think there’s a lot of people doing a lot of work and I’m sure both of you could could speak a lot to that but the through some of the middleware and the technology. It’s awesome to see and it’s coming. Give it, I think, eight to 12 months and you’ll really see some of that start to open up a bit more.

Ramsey D Smith:
So there had been some announcements, right? So T had joined retirement clearinghouse and then there was at least one other announcement. So, I mean, and do all these speak to sort of the increased portability capability that’s coming?

Bonnie Treichel:
Yeah, I think so, because I think as this is starting to kind of, for a long time, my belief, and I’d be curious what you guys think, it’s kind of this chicken or egg, right? So who’s

Ramsey D Smith:
Yeah.

Bonnie Treichel:
going to spend the money to start to build the bridge first? And so someone’s got to start, but who’s going to start first and who’s going to spend that money to do it? And then once it starts, everyone else will follow, but someone’s got to start. So I think those announcements, Ramsey, to your point, that’s demonstrating the start of what’s to come. You know, I think, what does that mean for the retirement plan? advisor, for those who have been saying, I don’t want to spend the time on this, I think it’s the time to say, hey, I don’t have to be ready to implement, but I have to be, and to steal something from Tameco, I have to be at least income curious. I’ve got to at least be curious enough to learn a bit to start a conversation with a plan sponsor.

Ramsey D Smith:
So in my view, maybe people are a little bit early, right? But when this moves, it’s gonna move quickly. And if one wants to be relevant the next five, six, seven or eight, nine years and continue growing their businesses, this is a skill set that’s important to, important to

Bruno Caron:
Thanks for watching!

Ramsey D Smith:
really be focused on. So now you had asked sort of our further thoughts in the space and the other announcement I think was I guess from Empower that was also talking about some things that they were looking to do. You know. The record keepers have a very important role here. They have a lot at stake. They have a hard job and it’s a business that has tight margins and they have a lot of moving parts. And so in my mind, when you start seeing record keepers speaking more openly about plans in this space, that to me sounds like a very, very good part of the fact pattern. And I know what your thoughts are on that.

Bonnie Treichel:
No, I totally agree. I think, you know, so back to the kind of the record keeper chicken or egg thing,

Ramsey D Smith:
Yeah.

Bonnie Treichel:
it’s like record keepers, they do, they have compressed margins, they’re now dealing with secure 2.0 and all the rebuilds there. When they start to pay attention and one of them is doing it, they’ve all got to follow. When you think of kind of the big three or the big five in the record keeping space, once one or two are doing it, the rest have to follow. And so I think it pushes, retirement income space. One of the things, when I first started looking into retirement income, you know, I don’t have the annuity background that both of you do. I have the fiduciary background. So when I first started looking into this space, I was like, oh, is this just kind of the industry’s like flavor of the month thing, right? Like this is the passing thing and you know, you have to learn it because it’s what everyone’s gonna talk about for six months and then we’re onto the next kind of flavor of the month sort of thing, right? The industry kind of goes through things where there’s things that pop up. the legislative and regulatory background pushing this forward. there’s no way to ignore it because it’s here to stay. Like this isn’t the kind of just like fleeting, it’ll come and go. I think there’s so many things pushing it forward and really just looking at that regulatory push that from several years back, we’ve got just so much guidance pushing it forward, as well as with Secure One and Two, you really just can’t ignore it. It demonstrates that it’s here to stay.

Bruno Caron:
And to add on top of that just the fundamental need of people literally aging in that particular demographic without the DB plans. It’s it’s poised to your point to it’s not just something we can’t ignore. It’s just it’s an opportunity for for the industry. And to to to to piggyback on on Ramsey’s point, I you know, we have to take the. the time because it’s your job. It’s not just the flavor of

Bonnie Treichel:
the

Bruno Caron:
your

Bonnie Treichel:
flavor.

Bruno Caron:
month. I like your chicken the egg analogy because you’re right, people won’t have the medal for being the first one but then everybody will have to follow. So on that note, I think you mentioned some sort of training that’s coming up. Would you like to expand a little more on that particular offering?

Bonnie Treichel:
Yeah, absolutely. You know, again, I think the American Retirement Association does a really great job about making training available for retirement plan advisors. So for example, they put out the ESGK program where folks can learn totally for free about ESG, the basics of it, how to run a prudent process. Same thing here, ARA and NAPA again, have brought together some education partners to fund the certificate program that will come out and it will be probably a three or four hour online program where folks can go in, they can learn the basics of, you know, why are we talking about retirement income? How does this apply to my business and how can I use it to, you know, attract and retain clients? And what is a prudent process? How do I run this prudent process? And the nice thing is, ARA collaborated with FI 360 on that. So the prudent practices coming from FI 360 and that group, will be brought in so that if I’m an advisor, I can really get a good understanding of what is the language, what do I need to know, and how do I actually run a prudent process as a fiduciary to be making these recommendations. So I’m really excited about that program. And I think it gives advisors a lot of free resources, like Retirement Income Consortium, they have those prudent practices available. They just released an IPS. So if you needed to make updates to your IPS for retirement income solutions, And so there’s a lot of these things becoming available that are objective third-party not pushing a product. So I’m really excited about that

Ramsey D Smith:
Can you define IPS for the broader audience?

Bonnie Treichel:
Yeah, good point investment policy statement

Ramsey D Smith:
Okay, all right. So an area that I’ve found a bit curious is the sort of the size of plans for which, this is relevant in the first order, and the second order is sort of the who serves each sort of tier of plan by size. So. For example, like for a very large plan, do RAs look with very large plans or more sort of small and mid-sized businesses? How do we think about sort of the advisor audience? Where are they typically aiming to help, help in this case companies build out their 401k plans? What’s a typical plan size?

Bonnie Treichel:
Oh, good question. You know, I think that… Retirement plan advisors and consultants who are coming from RIAs really can go all sizes of the market, right? So they might work with a billion dollar plan. They might work with a million dollar plan. In my background, I was an ERISA attorney and then I was at an RIA and that was before I started Endeavor. But when I was at the RIA, you know, I had a book of business where I had a startup plan. I had a couple of really small plans and then I had a couple that were billion dollar plans. So I think when we think about RIAs and who they’re targeting or independent advisors or any retirement plan advisor, it’s all sizes of the market. Certainly once you get up market, it’s a bit of a different kind of process, but there’s a large range of where retirement plan advisors can focus. When you think about that in the retirement income space and those recommendations, again, there’s application to all sizes of the market. I think different products and solutions fit better. different market segments depending on some of those solutions but absolutely retirement plan advisors you know it’s more about finding like what is your space and then going after that you know are you going to be in the micro market and really leverage secure and all of those opportunities or are you going to be more in that 20 to 50 million market and kind of stick stick there and be really efficient so it’s about finding your space

Ramsey D Smith:
Right, super. So is there anything else that, we’re almost out of time, is there anything else that

Bruno Caron:
Thanks for watching!

Ramsey D Smith:
you think we’ve missed Bonnie? Any other elements we wanna make sure we leave our audience with? Like look, we’d love everybody in the audience to get certified in your program and start marketing the implant opportunity over time. Are there any other things that we should be, we make sure that we leave them with?

Bonnie Treichel:
I think one thing I would just mention is that this is take the product side out of it. When we think about retirement income and in-plan retirement income options, I think sometimes the product piece is leading the conversation and not, I think going back to Bruno, a point you made. Let’s start with what is the need of the plan and its participants and then go from there to determine, okay, what is the type of solution we need and how can we meet that, as opposed to starting with the product conversation and then fitting that into the need. So when we think about this just from what is the action step from an advisor who listens today in the retirement plan space, it’s really, you know, one, just start to get educated, two, learn about the language, and three, start having some of these conversations with your plan sponsors to understand what is the need, start looking at the demographics of those plans and figure out if there’s going to be a fit in the future. But think about it from a need aspect, not a product aspect.

Ramsey D Smith:
That is such an important point and and unfortunately many of us guilty as charged you know as financial services professionals being product focused we sometimes default to that in a way that we shouldn’t so thank you for thank you for bringing that up so Bruno any any parting thoughts.

Bruno Caron:
The last thing, I love the other word you mentioned, the collaboration. And I think that we’re all, you know, if everyone’s trying to do this on their own, I think that’s going to be perceived for better, for worse as, you know, oh, you’re just trying to sell a product. But the fact that there’s association consortium and alliances that are coming together. to bring that message forward and bring it across. Final thoughts, do you care to offer some thoughts on how that collaboration took place? How much did it require to bring sometimes competitors at the same table and try to join force and collaborate?

Bonnie Treichel:
Yeah, that’s a great point. But. I do think the collaboration aspect is what’s critically important to making this happen. And one of the reasons is going back to that idea of consistent language, because if we don’t collaborate and get our head around what is the language and the industry doesn’t have consistent language, then they cannot train advisors. Advisors cannot train plan sponsors, and this will never be adopted. So it really does start with how do we get all these folks on the same page from the industry perspective to have that trickle down effect. that collaboration happen, you know, it really, from my perspective, it’s these, you know, strong leaders like Brian Graff at ARA, getting people to come together to, to put a program in place, as well as John Faustino at Broadridge FI 360, really just reaching out and explaining that same story, right? Hey, there is a need. We really have this need. How do we bridge that gap? And then showing the way, oh, we can have this, this program where everyone’s going to benefit. lift all ships. And so I think a lot of people have bought into that, that if we all come together and do it together, it’s going to have a better outcome. You know, if someone buys solution A and starts actually implementing and seeing adoption, then employer B is going to say, oh, yeah, okay, this is working. And even if they don’t select solution A, they’re still going to like it’s just going to push it forward for everyone. And that’s really what’s going to make it happen.

Ramsey D Smith:
All right, well, thank you very much. And I firmly agree with you, both of you, on the broader point that at this early stage of this particular business model. Um, we need as broader adoption. So, you know, there’s a thin line between competition and collaboration, right? Cause really what we’re trying to do is sort of change, change the overall paradigm. Well, Bonnie, thank you very much for, for spending the time with us. And I’m sure we’re going to want to have you back sometime again, soon. Uh, Bruno, always great to have you. It was great to see you and,

Bruno Caron:
Likewise.

Ramsey D Smith:
uh, and, uh, Paul and our other friends will be back. I’m sure. Uh, on. on the next episode. And so Bonnie, actually before we leave, what is the best place for people to get in contact with you? What’s the best ways to work with your law firm, with Endeavor Retirement, et cetera?

Bonnie Treichel:
Yeah, well you can always follow me on LinkedIn or on Twitter, but my email address is bonnieatendeavor-retirement.com.

Ramsey D Smith:
All right, well, thank you very much. Okay, would love to get feedback from the audience on this and any other episode that we have. We’re always constantly trying to improve and we’d love the support you’ve given us and we look forward to seeing all of you again on that Annuity Show. Take care. Let me stop this.

Laura Dinan HaberEpisode 189: How To Build A Market Advising 401(k) Plans with Bonnie Treichel
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Episode 188: Predicting the Banking Crisis Through Machine Learning With Barbara Matthews

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Returning guest Barbara Matthews, Founder and CEO of BCMStrategy, Inc joins us for a timely discussion of the public financial policy and the ability of machine learning to separate signal from noise. We cover crypto-currency intermediation, SVB, interest rates, COVID subsidies and the early insight that her machine learning model provides.

Links mentioned in the show:

https://www.linkedin.com/in/barbaracmatthews/

https://measuringpolicyvolatility.substack.com/

https://www.bcmstrategy2.com/

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Episode Transcript

The discussion is not meant to provide any legal, tax, or investment advice with respect to the purchase of an insurance product. A comprehensive evaluation of a consumer’s needs and financial situation should always occur in order to help determine if an insurance product may be appropriate for each unique situation.

Paul Tyler:

Hi, this is Paul Tyler and welcome to another episode of That Annuity Show. And Ramsey, good to see you.

Ramsey D Smith:

Always good to be back.

Paul Tyler:

Yeah, well, we had a great guest on, and I’m looking at the date, this was December 28th, 2020. I’m thinking that was the deep,

Barbara C. Matthews:

Pandemic.

Ramsey D Smith:

Is that, is that

Paul Tyler:

dark,

Ramsey D Smith:

really the last time?

Paul Tyler:

that was the last time we were in the, like, throes of the pandemic. And we were talking about… policy, monetary policy, how to read it better, how to under interpret it better, and oh this thing called machine learning and like how to take un-text and turn it unstructured data into data. That isn’t the news at all, but fast-forward to the day we actually do have incredible policy issues we’re all kind of dealing with in the financial and economic issues that we’re dealing lot of different issues today and machine learning is suddenly on the tips of everybody’s tongue. So Ramsey, do you want to do the intro and set up the discussion?

Ramsey D Smith:

Sure, first of all, I’m just blown away that it has been that long. And again, it’s another sign of sort of the pandemic time warp. I can say that as we were thinking about just what a crazy macro environment we’re in right now, Barbara Matthews, our guest, came to mind very quickly as one of the first people we wanted to talk to to help us decode everything that’s going on. So she joins us today again. So great to have you back, Barbara. founder and CEO of BCM Strategy, Inc. And we look forward to having a great conversation about any number of things that have been going on, certainly this year, and importantly, helping us sort of better understand what we’re being told. How should we interpret the messaging and the words that we’re getting? So welcome back, Barbara.

Barbara C. Matthews:

Well, thanks for having me back. You guys ask great questions and this podcast is just fabulous. I’m delighted to be back.

Ramsey D Smith:

All right, so let’s get into it. So we were ahead of the show, we were chatting a little bit about some of the many things that have been going on and one of them was really around Fed policy and bank solvency. Those are two separate issues, but obviously they’ve also been pretty closely related in recent months as well. I remember sort of as there was a lot of messaging coming out of the government handle each of those issues, trying to figure out, well, everyone’s trying to figure out what are they really going to do, and now we know. Help us understand how you looked at that whole process and what were the things you saw as things were unfolding.

Barbara C. Matthews:

Absolutely. Thanks for the opportunity. It might be helpful for your listeners to explain what we do. Because

Ramsey D Smith:

Sure.

Barbara C. Matthews:

people are accustomed to thinking about looking at any policy suite, and they expect to hear a human provide analysis, or do their equivalent of the crystal ball. And we do something very different. And so it might be helpful to level set for a moment.

Ramsey D Smith:

Absolutely.

Barbara C. Matthews:

So what my company does, we have a system have patented technology that measures the momentum and the volatility in public policy. And so our machine reads every day more than any human could in a 24 hour period in general, but then it puts a number on it and it measures it without using sentiment analysis. So we’re measuring, if you will, if you think about the old where there’s smoke, there’s fire. So we’re finding the smoke. numbers from language, that’s what the patented process does, it turns words into numbers, because we’re doing that predominantly, but not exclusively, from the official sector. It means you can also see the difference between what is going on in the media, what the journalists are reporting. We do take in, we have data mining licenses with Thomson Reuters and Dow Jones, strategic partnership with Dow Jones. 95-90% of our inputs are what policymakers are actually saying and doing, because we think what a policymaker says matters. It matters a lot. And they will tell you what they want to do and what they’re going to do. You just have to learn how to listen. And because I have been in public policy, I have trained my machine to listen for the signals hiding in plain sight. policymaker. Our machine listens like a senior policymaker. And so that’s why we are able to identify a number of signals instead of just repeating back to everyone the echo chamber of what’s happening on Twitter and in the headlines. So your question specifically was about regulatory policy, monetary policy, and I can give you some examples from our own. We started a substack podcast this year in January. I’m inspired by you guys.

Ramsey D Smith:

Tell us the name of it, please.

Barbara C. Matthews:

It’s measuring policy volatility.substack.com. So Fridays, it’s once a week. So Fridays, it’s digital currency policy. Saturdays, it’s climate finance policy. Sundays, it’s monetary policy. And we use our data, we read our data, we point out to people what our data shows you. And so what that meant was, because we started in January, January, we identified right away, I think we were the first to identify, that the new regulatory stance of the federal banking regulators was going to dramatically decrease liquidity for cryptocurrency intermediaries. They issued a big statement January 3rd, our system caught it, I podcasted about it. They said effectively, they actually said it. You

Paul Tyler:

Cue,

Barbara C. Matthews:

don’t

Paul Tyler:

cue,

Barbara C. Matthews:

actually

Paul Tyler:

cue.

Barbara C. Matthews:

have to outlaw crypto intermediation. All you have to do is say, hey, heads up, bank examiners are gonna view this as an unsafe and unsound banking practice, and that just sends a chilling environment. And then they did it again in February.

Paul Tyler:

Okay, so maybe just stop there and

Barbara C. Matthews:

Yeah.

Paul Tyler:

we’ll just make sure everybody who is listening hears this, because what you said is really significant. Disintermediation, what was the word you used? How do you describe the

Barbara C. Matthews:

Chilling effect.

Paul Tyler:

chilling effect of the cryptocurrency intermediaries? And this is interesting, what makes our currency work? I mean,

Barbara C. Matthews:

Yep.

Paul Tyler:

I should ask you, but my definition is you’ve got a central bank, I’m in here that sets monetary policy and controls lending rates, sort of makes sure a currency is stable. You don’t have that in cryptocurrency. Now effectively some of those companies were, right? Coinbase, you know, go through the list. They effectively were market makers, Barbara. Am I misinterpreting this or

Barbara C. Matthews:

No,

Paul Tyler:

would you say it better than I did?

Barbara C. Matthews:

not at all. And that’s actually a great point about the market makers. Because although most people think of the crypto space, and it’s not just crypto, it’s also stable coins that maintain a one-to-one peg with the US dollar. But these are not hermetically sealed environments. There are on-ramps and off-ramps to the US dollar, and that goes through the banking system. In addition, They actually need US dollars or some hard currency to buy the computers, to pay the people. You know, people still need some kind of hard currency to pay for food. You can’t use crypto to pay your grocery bill, your utilities bill, your mortgage or your rent. So there are on and off ramps between the crypto space and the banking system where there are US dollars. you know, our system basically set up this big alert, said, heads up, you know, it’s an unsafe and sound banking practice. We’re going to see a constraint on access to credit for a range of crypto intermediaries and market makers, like you said, like, and, you know, and sure enough,

Paul Tyler:

Yeah.

Barbara C. Matthews:

you know, Coinbase has been in the news. Not a

Paul Tyler:

Right.

Barbara C. Matthews:

surprise. They’re not the only ones, but, you know, Binance is having trouble getting their bank account. I mean, it’s an issue.

Paul Tyler:

So Ramsey is a client of mine, I’m Coinbase or competitor. Ramsey says, Paul, I wanna cash out my Bitcoin, one of my currencies, but I don’t have somebody on the other end of the transaction. I’m gonna have to borrow money to pay him, correct? And

Barbara C. Matthews:

That’s

Paul Tyler:

where do

Barbara C. Matthews:

what

Paul Tyler:

I borrow

Barbara C. Matthews:

you could, yeah.

Paul Tyler:

the money? So that’s the point where if I’m Coinbase and I want to go get money, you’re saying policy makers said, maybe charge Paul with more money. how it happened.

Barbara C. Matthews:

Yeah, well, so it was kind of banking regulation is this. It’s a lot about nudge. And there’s a whole field of economics associated with nudging. But basically, the the policymakers said was really, we’re going to view with suspicion and we’re going to think it’s an unsafe banking practice if you provide intermediation services. So that’s deposit act. Intermediation is broad. It’s deposits. You you brought up the lending use case. of some kind of a loan, you know, it’s a big deal. And then they did it again in February.

Paul Tyler:

February.

Barbara C. Matthews:

They did it again in February, the second

Paul Tyler:

So you

Barbara C. Matthews:

time.

Paul Tyler:

saw it in January, you saw it in February,

Barbara C. Matthews:

Yeah.

Paul Tyler:

and one of those blow

Barbara C. Matthews:

Yeah,

Paul Tyler:

up.

Barbara C. Matthews:

so fast forward then to March, a crypto intermediary, Silvergate, declares bankruptcy. They’re like, we can’t. We’re done. We’re done. And it’s not like the crypto industry was doing well. I mean, last year was legendary in terms of the number of implosions. And that’s when the monetary policy problem kicked in. Because when they went down, the Silicon Valley Bank And then on top of it, you know, the crypto space has been financed in large part by a lot of venture capital companies and venture capital individuals, all who banked at SVB. And they’re like, oh, we want our money. We want our deposits back. And the reality is, is that no bank can actually withstand a run period. Doesn’t really matter. I mean, it wasn’t quite a run yet. SVB was like, okay, fine. We’re going to liquidate our secure our treasury securities. because those treasury securities weren’t worth as much as they were when they originally bought them. Why were they not worth as much? Because interest rates started going up. So the value of a sovereign fixed income instrument, the value of it decreases over time when interest rates go up, because someone can buy a new bond with a higher interest rate. So the value of your old bond with low interest rate kind of goes to the… Then this is super important in the annuities business. this, of course, I don’t have to tell you that. So there’s SCB. They start liquidating their Treasury securities at a loss, but this only spooks the market more, accelerates into a full-on deposit run. And then for good measure, the FDIC closed Signature Bank at the same time, which was the other major intermediary in the crypto space. There’s a massive implosion in crypto, banking system. And then the question became, because this happened right, like two weeks before the next monetary policy meeting, the question became, will policymakers raise interest rates again in the middle of a financial stability situation? So we looked at the data. We looked at the language data. We looked at what policymakers were saying. We also looked at actual data. So this is something an analyst could do. And part of what we’re doing is we’re people how to, you know, it’s a leap for people to think of words as data, words as numbers. So we’re teaching people in Substack how to do this. And so we were like, well, look, you know, you guys, our audience is a lot of portfolio managers, a lot of advocates, portfolio managers, they’re going to do some research. I was like, oh, well, let’s see. Let’s see what the utilization rate is for that support structure that they created, the bank term funding program. Let’s look at the support structure they created to provide dollar liquidity to the international financial system. Well, utilization rates were really high. The market had calmed down. So we put the actual data together with the language data, and we told people on the Sunday, yes, the Fed is going to raise interest rates. And not just them. I mean, it was all the central banks, actually. They all did the same thing. But we used the data to tell them to say, look, you have to listen to what they’re telling you. And what they’re telling you is they want to hold firm. inflation, they’re still worried about a hot labor market. If you only looked at Twitter, if you only looked at social media, I don’t want to single out just one company, if you only looked at the headlines, the echo chamber, none of this really made it into the news. Reporters can only report so much. and illuminate a signal. Because

Ramsey D Smith:

So.

Barbara C. Matthews:

you can see it mathematically, you can see it jump, you can see the volume go up. And you’re like, oh, well, gotta pay attention to that.

Ramsey D Smith:

So where are all the various sources that you’re drawing your verbal data from?

Barbara C. Matthews:

Yes.

Ramsey D Smith:

Is it just direct policymaker language? Is it also Twitter? Is it also the mainstream media? What is the, yeah,

Barbara C. Matthews:

Great questions.

Ramsey D Smith:

where do you start with to filter down to what you think is the true signal? Because if you’re looking at everything, you’re gonna pick up some of the bias signals as well, right?

Barbara C. Matthews:

Yeah,

Ramsey D Smith:

filter this out.

Barbara C. Matthews:

exactly. Well, we start from the proposition, like I said, that what policymakers say matters, and people don’t

Ramsey D Smith:

Yeah.

Barbara C. Matthews:

hear it enough. And we are very committed to not having bias. On occasion, people do ask us to interpret or provide some normative analysis, and I resist that. I’m one of the few startups, I think, that actually turns down business, because I don’t want to corrupt the data. So we just take the language from policymakers, it’s publicly available. And I’d say that’s easily 85, 90% of our inputs. And that’s global. So every day we take a measure of what policymakers are saying around the world on the same issue. We do have data mining licenses with Thao Jones, who’s a strategic partner for us, and Thomson Reuters. And so what that means is that we’re not just generating one number. And for the quants in your portfolio managers and your listener base, what we actually generate a multivariate time series that permits the user to compare what policymakers are actually talking about with what major media is reporting. And the delta, the difference between the two, is a measure of your informational advantage when rhetoric media coverage is low, but policymaker activity is high.

Paul Tyler:

So it’s a little bit like Google Trends meets arbitrage.

Barbara C. Matthews:

I guess so. I guess

Ramsey D Smith:

I mean,

Barbara C. Matthews:

so, yeah.

Ramsey D Smith:

I guess my.

Barbara C. Matthews:

Yeah, but I don’t know exactly how they do Google Trends, so I don’t want

Ramsey D Smith:

Yeah.

Barbara C. Matthews:

to overdo

Paul Tyler:

Yeah, okay,

Barbara C. Matthews:

  1. But it’s

Paul Tyler:

okay.

Barbara C. Matthews:

a principle you get. You can compare different activity streams as it works.

Ramsey D Smith:

So my question is that, you know, how much does that delta vary over time? And

Barbara C. Matthews:

It’s

Ramsey D Smith:

do

Barbara C. Matthews:

really

Ramsey D Smith:

they ever meet?

Barbara C. Matthews:

interesting.

Ramsey D Smith:

Are they ever on top of each other? Is the delta

Barbara C. Matthews:

Yeah,

Ramsey D Smith:

ever

Barbara C. Matthews:

you know

Ramsey D Smith:

zero?

Barbara C. Matthews:

they

Ramsey D Smith:

Okay.

Barbara C. Matthews:

cross they cross I have come to the conclusion that when they when the when the lines cross We’re at an inflection point So for example if action levels are going up and they exceed rhetoric levels and it’s intuitive if you think about it But we patent we’re the first ones to do it and we patented the process to attach the numbers No one else can do it so I can tell you about it It was intuitive policymakers act and what happens next? So the dynamic, when something is really going on, action levels are gonna go up, and then it takes, depending on the issue, anywhere between a day to two weeks before the media coverage spikes. And conversely, but then there are some other patterns that are really interesting. So in digital currency, media coverage is always really high. you and persistently, I mean we’ve been generating this data since 2019, media hardly reports on central bank digital currencies. PS is a major competitor to the cryptos and they’re only just starting to get to a point where they’re actually going to compete in the market. So there’s this all this universe and we do that we do that and Ramsey I think you you’ve seen some of these charts. So The media coverage will be all over here for crypto. And in the meantime, policymakers are doing a lot of stuff to compete with cryptos by issuing, preparing to issue sovereign digital currency. And it’s like not in the news. Now, having said that, there are some crypto-specific news outlets that do a good job of covering this. But if you’re not a crypto fanatic, you have your pension and you have your annuity and you’re paying attention and you just want to know that you’re you’re and you want to engage in an intelligent way with your asset managers. You’re not going to be reading the crypto news coverage. You’re going to be reading the Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, you know. Anyway, so we’re measuring what everyone’s talking about.

Ramsey D Smith:

So then looking out sort of over the horizon a bit, right? So what are the some of the things that we should keep an eye out for? Where there’s that meaningful delta between what’s being talked about generally and kind of what we might expect? So central bank digital currencies, that’s interesting. I still remains to be seen whether or not they’ll be successful, I don’t know. But the first part is like, what’s the level of intentionality on the part of the central banks to actually try to make them successful? And then the next thing is inflation interest rates. Do you have some thoughts on any of those three?

Barbara C. Matthews:

All of the above and climate finance too, but anyway, all the above.

Ramsey D Smith:

All three, okay good. Oh,

Barbara C. Matthews:

Well, so you’re right, but all of the major reserve currencies now have very significant

Ramsey D Smith:

all right.

Barbara C. Matthews:

pilot programs underway. And they’re thinking very concretely, the ECB has promised they will have a decision in the autumn of this year about whether or not they’re going to try to issue a sovereign digital currency. I think the central banks are very serious. great job of exposing all of the faults and failings and vulnerabilities and frailties of the system. So yeah, pay attention to this because, you know, even if you’re invested in the FX market, you know, you wouldn’t price against it right now, but if you know it’s coming, there will come a moment when you’re going to want to pounce. You don’t want to miss that moment. You want to be in early enough where it’s smart but not so early that it’s, you know, risky. The monetary policy. I have taken in the podcast to putting together the language data related to financial stability and the language data related to inflation. And so right now we’re in the middle of the IMF World Bank spring meetings, G20 spring meetings. I will tell you, today’s a great week to be generating language data. I can’t exactly answer your question today because it’s only Tuesday. We’ve got a bunch more language data that has to come out. But the economic growth rates that the IMF released suggests strongly significant economic slowdowns in a lot of advanced economies. And that’s of course what the Fed wants. And what every central bank wants, they want to, ironically enough, they want to slow down the growth rates so that the pressure on prices comes down. And so I will be listening very carefully and more importantly, my system will be listening very carefully what they’re saying about whether financial stability issues or monetary, you know, the inflation rates are the driver. And then as a bonus, I’ll tell you that bank term funding program, it’s slated to end at the end of April, and the next monetary policy meeting is at the beginning of May. So I am personally, and this is just because I’m a geek, and I am at heart an analyst matter expert as well. Personally, I’m going to be watching like a hawk utilization rates. They’re published every week by the Fed. And because that’s what’s buying us financial stability. And so I will be looking at do they renew the program? Have utilization rates gone down? And then how are policymakers talking about financial stability? It’s enormously

Ramsey D Smith:

So do you think that there’s some likelihood that it will be extended? It’s just, I guess, for the audience’s

Barbara C. Matthews:

I don’t know

Ramsey D Smith:

benefit.

Barbara C. Matthews:

the short answer is I don’t know. So this is the thing about the language data.

Ramsey D Smith:

Yeah.

Barbara C. Matthews:

It’s not exactly a crystal ball.

Ramsey D Smith:

Sure.

Barbara C. Matthews:

The crystal ball comes from applying that data in machine learning artificial intelligence. We could have a really good conversation about that.

Paul Tyler:

We’re going to.

Ramsey D Smith:

Okay.

Barbara C. Matthews:

So I will tell you the narrow question about, will they raise rates or not? The last time I looked at the language data before Easter. Spoiler alert, Easter weekend, Christmas, New Year’s, not even worth it to look at it because nobody’s doing anything anyway.

Ramsey D Smith:

Yeah.

Barbara C. Matthews:

Activity levels are low. So last time I looked at it was right before New Year’s. And I was at the IMF World Bank. I’m a member of the Bretton Woods Committee. I was at the Bretton Woods Committee session on climate finance yesterday. You know, I’ve been at these events, I’ve been at these meetings foot. It does not have that vibe at all. There is, if anything, and this is just totally reading between the lines, I have the impression that so far a gentle decrease in growth rates, most economists will view that with a bit of a sigh of relief and they’ll say, okay, maybe for good measure they’ll increase one more time just to solidify the trend. and then stop. Because the mood in these meetings so far, it’s really still in the week, but the meetings so far, there’s no panic. In fact, when the IMF managing director yesterday kicked off the climate finance sessions at the Bretton Woods Committee, and this was a public session, broadcast, when she kicked it off, she ended with kind of striking note, she said, we can survive inflation. We can survive a recession. So, head of the IMF, you’d be thinking that way, is stunning to me in general. And then the third part of that was, but we cannot survive climate change, very dour.

Ramsey D Smith:

Is that how it went? It went

Barbara C. Matthews:

That’s what she

Ramsey D Smith:

A,

Barbara C. Matthews:

said,

Ramsey D Smith:

B, and then C? Wow.

Barbara C. Matthews:

A, B, and then C. And that tells

Paul Tyler:

Interesting.

Barbara C. Matthews:

you, that sequence tells you a lot too,

Ramsey D Smith:

Sure does, yeah.

Barbara C. Matthews:

And then the last part of it was to make the case for informed policies that ensure we can both survive and thrive despite a shift in the climate. I thought it was enormously interesting, not just as a rhetorical device, but for those economists, and I’m sorry to stray into the substance here, but for those economists that believe the necessarily requires higher pricing, not just higher pricing for carbon, but just higher energy prices in total because it’s not as efficient. It’s, you know, it is more expensive. It may be renewable, but it’s more expensive and it’s distribution issues are not anyway, but either way it’s gonna be more expensive. To have the head of the IMF thinking in those ways, I thought was just illuminating.

Paul Tyler:

Well, maybe we just double click on that topic because climate is one of these issues that has massive ramifications, especially with the financial services market. I put climate with ESG trends. We’ve had a lot of noise, Barbara. Read the papers, states taking on companies for investment policies, controversy back and forth. If you looked at the policy statements probably the leading question based on what you just said. Are we serious about making these… are these changes going to happen or do you see noise in the policy in terms of how we may implement some of these climate mandates, climate directives that we’ve seen coming out in the last few years?

Barbara C. Matthews:

Well, that is a leading question. Well, you know, I worked in Congress, and I worked at the Treasury Department, and I worked at the State Department. I’m gonna tell you, there’s always noise in public policy. Always, always. But you are right to ask the trend question. One of the things that I like to do is I like to see where the money goes. It’s because I’m a Treasury person, what can I tell you? Where’s the money going? You know, all of the billions, if not trillions really, in subsidies under the Inflation Reduction Act and the COVID Relief Act in Europe are, as they deploy into the economy, yes, they are inflationary. So the title of the act is a complete misnomer. But they are going to change the landscape for energy and not just energy, but consumer vehicles and really all transportation. that that is permanent. I think there’s a bigger, within finance itself, we have much harder issues that the central banks have been grappling with. This is actually where we do generate data. It’s a very niche area though. If you want to calculate the net present value of an asset, and then you want to identify your risk around changes in that value, you need to have some assumptions about the future. And this is a tremendously difficult challenge that pits finance again. Even the finance people that want to be forward-leaning here, it pits them against a lot of activists. Because the science, math-based process for estimating risk of loss… is very different from a political promise, we will decrease temperature rise. As a former policymaker, I know it’s important to be ambitious, but that’s such a, you know.

Ramsey D Smith:

ideas versus

Barbara C. Matthews:

Policymakers

Ramsey D Smith:

execution.

Barbara C. Matthews:

used

Paul Tyler:

you

Barbara C. Matthews:

to like make promises they could actually deliver on. This is a, you know, it is an ambitious thing to say and then work backwards from there. So anyway, this is going to be a jagged line. Policy is path dependent, but it is not a linear path. And we might want to talk about that another time, just because the climate issues are and even the process of disclosing to investors and the role that investment advisors have in either servicing the needs of their savers that seek to have a forward-leaning, creative positive incentive, the market for green bonds. There’s a universe in here that language. And so we measure when there’s momentum behind the language.

Ramsey D Smith:

So

Paul Tyler:

Play of… Yeah.

Ramsey D Smith:

Paul, I know you wanted to talk about chat GPT. And so I think we’re probably going to

Paul Tyler:

Yeah,

Ramsey D Smith:

do that

Paul Tyler:

we’re

Ramsey D Smith:

quickly

Paul Tyler:

probably

Ramsey D Smith:

before

Paul Tyler:

there.

Ramsey D Smith:

we run out of time. Yeah.

Barbara C. Matthews:

Yeah.

Paul Tyler:

Yeah, well, let’s open the hood

Barbara C. Matthews:

Yeah.

Paul Tyler:

a bit, and I’ll kind of set this up for machine learning. We’ve all been, it’s been around forever. I mean, forever since like the 80s. You know, it was, probably in my mind, machine learning was, gee, why do I see the orange button on the website versus the blue one? Oh, we’ve kind of trained the machine to figure out which people click more on. recommendations, product recommendations. Oh, I kinda like that. Netflix comes along, wow, that actually was a good movie. Ramsey must have watched it and it showed up in my

Barbara C. Matthews:

Thank

Paul Tyler:

feed to, oh

Barbara C. Matthews:

you.

Paul Tyler:

my God, what’s happening here? But machine learning is very basic, is about training. And I think of Google as a product, I’m trying to think what it’s called, now they’ve changed the name a couple times, but you go to a website and I wanna do a registration. Google has this great free service for me to put up This is not a bot coming in, and I have to go and check all these pictures and identify fire hydrants. Now,

Barbara C. Matthews:

Yeah.

Paul Tyler:

isn’t Google using that to basically train their driving service, Barbara? Isn’t that sort of the

Barbara C. Matthews:

Yeah,

Paul Tyler:

guts of this?

Barbara C. Matthews:

oh yeah, absolutely. And by the way, it’s not free. It’s not free. It is only free in the sense that you have not provided them cash or crypto. It’s not free. You’ve given them two things that are super valuable. One is your time and the second is your knowledge. Your knowledge. So you’re right, machine learning. Absolutely. It’s pattern recognition. It’s statistics. And so But the better the pattern recognition, which is intuitive actually. There’s a lot of very fancy language and very complicated computer architecture that does it. But at its core, it’s just pattern recognition. And it can be very personalized, so that’s the third thing that you’re giving up is your privacy. Because it’s not just Google. The, you know, you’re giving them a lot of information. The value proposition to use, you’re going to get back really good automatic recommendations. But you’re also letting them use your data in the pool for others. And so you can also see a center of gravity. The downside is if you are an outlier for whatever reason, you’re just going to be funneled into the medium and the median. You know, for some people that’s not optimal. The other issue with the training is bias, potential bias, and there’s a lot to talk about there. But when CHAT GPT kind of made a big at the start of this year, people started seeing that you could actually use it as a research assistant. I mean, that is tremendous. So it can go out and it can read everything. And this is why I said wait into this off of bias. Because you have to really know what the model was trained on. So people laugh that there are times that chat-chip-y-t will give a crazy, erroneous answer. Well, that’s not because there’s a problem with the machine necessarily. That’s because there’s a problem with the training data. It trained on the wrong thing. So it does really well, systems for over a decade have been doing really well on medical documents because medical documents don’t really have your medical research that’s not very normative it’s not very subjective it’s very science based the minute you start talking about other things that are more subjective it becomes a lot harder so ask Chad GPT to tell you about the Soviet Union depending on your political priorities and your perspective what you get back you may That’s a challenge when you think about public policy, which is very values-based. it becomes even harder. Which is why when we set out to do what we do, we deliberately did not include any normative filters at all. We are only measuring momentum. And we don’t tell, you know, we don’t tell the machine, well, this is a good thing or a bad thing. But there are people who will, they’ll use sentiment analysis to tell you, well, and then to see the challenge with training data. So there are many people who will just kind of say, okay, fine, we’re going to, policymakers say matters, so we’re gonna take sentiment and we’re gonna figure out are they feeling good, are they feeling positive, and monetary policy, are they feeling hawkish or doveish? And they kind of missed the boat, having written a lot of these speeches for myself and for various ambassadors, cabinet level people, chairmen of those committees on Congress. The formula, I love it, I love it, I love it, I love it, but I’m sorry, I’m going to do the opposite. Sentiment analysis is gonna say, oh, they loved it! Conversely, it’s a challenge, it’s a problem, there are risks, do it anyway. Sentiment analysis will tell you, oh, they’re negative on this. So we chose not to use any sentiment analysis. It’s a unique decision. Not a lot of people in the industry have taken that route. There’s a lot that we could talk about for other kinds of bias. Geolocation data, mortgage rates data.

Paul Tyler:

you

Barbara C. Matthews:

that you’ve got to be really, really, really, and then if you take the position, and many in finance do take the position, that for example, many types of mortgage lending have been biased for a long time. If you train on the market data, you’re just gonna perpetuate. And that’s the last thing about public policy that I think is really important for people to understand. The purpose of public policy is to make a change. It is to create a break in the time series to do things differently. And that’s why the signal matters. And that’s why when you’re training data in the mortgage market, you’ve got to really think about whether you want to stay with the trend, even though in finance, the trend is your friend. Sometimes it’s not going to be. And when the trend conflicts with the policy makers you’re saying, and you go with the trend, you are setting yourself up Big risks to be on the wrong side.

Paul Tyler:

Let’s see, Ramsey, how are we doing for time here?

Ramsey D Smith:

I think we’re actually over the allotted time, unfortunately.

Barbara C. Matthews:

So sorry.

Paul Tyler:

Yeah, no, Barbara, we’ve gotta talk more. A lot of questions on that topic for you, but you’ve got a very, if I were to net it out, tell me if I’m right or wrong, you’ve got a very unique set of data that has been trained by some people who really understand how to mark up or make sense of the words. And it must be unique. You must be in a unique position in the marketplace at this point.

Barbara C. Matthews:

think we’re pioneers. We’re on the innovation frontier and that’s an exciting place to be. We are what happens when policymakers understand how to use the technology. That’s how I think about it. And we don’t actually mark it up. The machine marks it up automatically. You know,

Paul Tyler:

Yeah.

Barbara C. Matthews:

there are companies who pretend they’re in AI, but what they really have is an army of graduate students in the back room marking up text. That’s not what we’re doing. Our system actually marks

Paul Tyler:

Interesting.

Ramsey D Smith:

to.

Paul Tyler:

Okay.

Barbara C. Matthews:

also ask great questions. I’m happy to come back whenever you like. And

Paul Tyler:

Thank you.

Barbara C. Matthews:

I’m a great I love your podcast. So I’m happy to listen in as well. Thanks for having me.

Paul Tyler:

Excellent. We’ll put

Ramsey D Smith:

sure.

Paul Tyler:

all the links to your show and your sub stack in the notes. Ramsey, thanks.

Ramsey D Smith:

Pleasure.

Paul Tyler:

It was great. Barbara, love to have you back and continue these discussions. So anyway, listen, give us feedback. We love it. And join us again next week for another episode of That Annuity Show. Thanks.

Barbara C. Matthews:

Thanks so much.

Laura Dinan HaberEpisode 188: Predicting the Banking Crisis Through Machine Learning With Barbara Matthews
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Episode 184: The Next Steps In FIA Index Recommendations with Branislav Nikolic and Jay Watson

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In a turbulent economic time, recommending client allocations in FIA indices has never been harder. Our friends at The Index Standard, Branislav Nikolic and Jay Watson join us today to talk about the latest iterations on their rating models.

Links mentioned in the show:

https://www.theindexstandard.com

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Episode Transcript

The discussion is not meant to provide any legal, tax, or investment advice with respect to the purchase of an insurance product. A comprehensive evaluation of a consumer’s needs and financial situation should always occur in order to help determine if an insurance product may be appropriate for each unique situation.

paul_tyler:
This is Paul Tyler, and welcome to another episode of that annuity show and I’m glad to join everybody back. I safely made it back from Toby in Egypt for a two weeks trip, and in Bruno, I didn’t tell you this before, but I actually found out there was an ancient Egyptian prince who apparently had an annuity way back

bruno_caron:
Uh,

paul_tyler:
in Mesopotamia,

bruno_caron:
uh,

paul_tyler:
and was given almost like a cup on payment every year. But You found some interesting news that we probably should have high lighted earlier around the Nobel Prize in winter. and uh, uh, One more reason why annuities should be looked at by a lot of people.

bruno_caron:
Right, well, not that much of a recent news than the Egyptians having annuities,

paul_tyler:
Yeah,

bruno_caron:
but indeed, indeed, Benbernatki, who won the Noble prize winner, not not that long ago, joined a long list of noble prize winners who at the very least have you know, push forward the concept and the implementation of annuities. So I think that’s a that. That’s another step step forward and step in the right direction.

paul_tyler:
Yeah, he, tsa, How are you Good this morning?

tisa_rabun_marshall:
I’m good this morning. I’m just slow to get off a mute in case there’s you know, some noise distractions,

paul_tyler:
All right?

tisa_rabun_marshall:
but great to be here this morning

paul_tyler:
Okay, well, Ramsey, let’s see. can you connect the dots between Nobel prize winners and Egypt, Shan, nobles, perhaps, and annuities and the topic

ramsey_d_smith:
Well,

paul_tyler:
we’re going to cover today.

ramsey_d_smith:
the only thing I can say is that that at one point my freshmen are sophomore year in college. Ben Bernanki was teaching me beginning beginning economics. I forget it was introductory macro, introductory micro, so always very very happy to see him doing well out in the world, And it’s interesting. So you mentioned that there was an. I think you just mentioned there was an Egyptian Egyptian annuity. My wife handed me in art. All about a perpetual bond owned by Yale, as it happens from Holland, that dates back to the fifteen hundreds. they’re still collecting. Literally, they’re still collecting a handful of uros every year on the back of that. So

paul_tyler:
Uh, uh,

ramsey_d_smith:
the there there a number there, a number of really phenomenal examples. But listen, The most important thing we have going on today is that we are joined by two special people from our lead sponsor. The Index standard. They’ve been our lead sponde For a year now, and for those of you listen to the show and at the beginning I believe we’ve got a. We’ve got a one minute intro. We talk about what they do is they bring clarity to the growing and inherently complex world of industies that are part of the fixindexinuities that so many people that listen to our show are probably involved in selling. So we think it’s a very important service and they are. They’re launching some some new initiative As we speak, and that’s what we’re going to talk about today. So first, I’m gonna introduce Bronislav Nicolitch, who is head of insurance at At Index Standard Brneslov recently joined from from Chanic, Let him talk a little bit about his his new role in his transition and we’re also joined by J. Watson, who is calling from London again. Yet further proof that we are an international show. Ah, and J is head of Analytic at head of Analytic at At Index Standard, and is a long standing colleague of the founder Index Standard, Lawrence Black, who is who is a great friend of the show as well, So With that Branaslove, bring us up to speed. tell us about your latest.

branislav_nikolic:
Thank you, Ramsey, it’s my absolute pleasure to be here. Actually, last time I was in the show was actually my day two or day three after joining the Index standard, So I was really fresh fresh of the boat. So yeah, as you said, like, I’ve joined Fromchanics, where I was leading research and everything that focused about retiring, complaning and anuities, and inclusion of annuities, whether it’s a retail or or in plan, and making making a shift index Standard where I really am looking into index solutions in either of the settings, But it’s insurance. It’s a annuities, index index, life insurance, and starting to look into in plan solutions, they are more and more willing to look and adopt index indexanuities, So a pleasure to be here and looking forward to our chat.

ramsey_d_smith:
J. Tell us a little bit more about yourself. Yeah,

jay_watson:
Thanks for that, my name is J. Watson. I joined the next standard just under two years ago, and prior to that, for best part of two decades, I worked in investment banking. most of that at Barkley’s capital, and most of that time was spent designing the industies that we’re talking about today, so across the different asset classes on a global basis, So based in London. That accounts for my accent, And I’ve known Lawrence for very many years. We were colleagues over the years, and I joined when Lawrence founded the Index standard. I joined him quite soon afterwards, and I’m very happy to be part of our mission, which is to help people better understand these industries and how they can work well for individuals and retires.

ramsey_d_smith:
All right, so why don’t we get into it And by the way, I neglected to acknowledge that, So Bruno is calling from Montreal, and Branaslavis is normally in Toronto. Don’t know where you are today. So Canada is also very important part of our national presence. So Bronaslav, tell us about. Tell us about this this latest initiative that that you’re undertaking with the Index standard.

branislav_nikolic:
So what we have done it in the standard and again, even before I joined. I know what what a core mission was, as Ja said to help teople understand Complex in this is better understand how the impact the insurance solutions, and more important how to impact the retail products to end up in the in the hands of moms and pomps, So what we do is kind of like multimultilayered, so just to kind of remind those who ve heard of us are kind, introduced it to those who haven’t we, For ratings and forecasts for for industies, and with our ratings, we’re trying to show how well designed or how robust. industisare and talk about there. Overall design can bring those in common language, simple to understand, and with a forecast, we are trying to rely on what we call the wisdom of Wall Street, and basically try and see how these are gonna perform Over next next little while, in other words will take, an index will do a v n analysis on it. See how it relates to the capital, malice assumptions that are coming from Um. insurance, big insurance companies, banks as managers, and see how the industries themselves would react Going forward. Now that’s all good. But the main question, the even we’ve been asked was around. How do I apply that in inanuities and we, There was a lot of work. Um, and of trying to figure out what the simplest way. what’s the way that would make sense to to to to mom and pop to my grandma That I always like to bring in in the scenario that she would understand what we are what we are talking about right. So we first wanted to put these index forecast to annuity annuity designs, and see if we can get a forecast or the annuities based on on annuity parameters that are different from different carriers, different surrender periods, and so on, Yet the forecast, or what we call Net forecast credit for for the annuities, But then soon after the question, the question really started started to be be asked is how do I know where to locate my money with inane, So we understand that these industries themselves are like many portfolios that are highly optimized to react to different market events, Um target different levels of volatility. But now that I have many of these many portfolios and many of the creating strategies with, In a new, How do I locate within the annuity and how do I word redundancies? A lot of people were saying that they are seeing either binary locations to it, say five hundred cab strategy Or if there are multiple options, they would say have five options. I split fy ways. You have three options out three ways. And what we wanted to bring some rigor is how do you? How do you do that methodically, But then still keep it. Keep it simple enough. so so so people, Or at the receiving end of this can get something. Something out of it

bruno_caron:
So if you take it, you know from from from to your point, from you your grandmother’s perspective. Now, let’s start with the first step induces. if I’m presented as a consumer between two different induces, what would be the differentiating factor between your gold rating and your neutral rating? Like, What are those those differentiating factors between those, those particular rating of those those induces.

jay_watson:
Okay, I’ll try and answer this, Bruno. The first thing to say is that our rating system is entirely analytical, Is no subjectivity. It’s objective, so we look at a very large number of different aspects of the index design its performance. It’s the way it’s desined, How many parameters it uses what underlings. It has, a very, very large number of considerations On Consideration we score. We then add up that score to get a grand total score for a particular index, and then once we’ve got that number and number out of a hundred, we compare it with all of the similar induces, So for example, the dividend index we compare with another dividend index or a multi asset index, We compare with another multiaset, a set of multi acid indusies, So we compare like with like apples with apples. So there’s an analytic score And then with that Score we compare that score with the other similar indusies, and then we produce we bucket those scores. The top ones get platinum, the next group get gold, and so on, and so on. So it’s an analytical process that takes into account a great many different aspects of the index design. And then we rate that index versus

paul_tyler:
How does

jay_watson:
it pears.

paul_tyler:
the how does time factor into your analysis and particularly my time? You know, if I plan to retire, Say twenty years from now versus ten years. Uh, one index may be gold, I would presume and please tell me this. I would think one index maybe goal, because it consistently returns a sort of narrow range of fairly good outcomes or has in the past, and we project it for Or another, one may actually produce some really incredible outcomes if you look over a period of say ten years, but if we start to narrow down that range of time and say well, Paul, you know, you might be starting to think about retirement sooner rather than later. I’m taking a little bit of a risk that I’m not going to get appear at a time where this particular industry has generated very high returns.

jay_watson:
That’s a very good question. We don’t have a crystal ball we’d love to have, but we don’t. What we’re trying to do with our index ratings is figure out which industries are well engineered and therefore more likely to do well over the long term, versus those of perhaps less well engineered that may look good in their back testing phase when they were designed, but may perform less well to the future And they go live. So that’s the first thing. It’s not a crystal ball, but it’s a A figure of measure of quality. The second thing is to say we always advocate this and it’s nothing new. Diversification Very simply, do not put all of your eggs in one basket. There are great many industries out there that I’m happy to say are very well designed these days, but even so it makes sense to diversify so there are some industries that may have a hard time in certain environments. Many industries have had a hard time in the last year, with both equities and bonds selling off a very unusual circumstance, so it’s very difficult to. It’s almost impossible to predict what’s going to happen in the future. The best thing you can do is to be diversified Now, that’s exactly the approach that we advocate in our model applications for the fixing, fixed indexed annuities. There are many now that offer multiple In This is, and at first sight, that becomes bewildering. I can imagine if I shown this to my mother, Bless her, she would say, I simply, I’ve never heard of most of these industries. Yes and yes, the Blomberg aggregate. Yes, the rest know, so people are stuck Th. they’re presented with often very good choices, but don’t have an informed viewpoint on what to do. So that’s where we aim to help.

ramsey_d_smith:
So I would just this comment that that one of the toughest things we do in the world of industies is actually really truly understand. You know, when things are redundant and not, it’s really very difficult to do without looking under the hood. One of the examples I remember from my old days was Ou know. there’s the S. P. five hundred, And then there was the five hundred value index and there was the five hundred growth index. Five hundred has five hundred ish stocks, It. but each of those industies had three hundred and some odd stocks in each. So if you added them together, it didn’t actually equal the five hundred, because there are a lot of stocks that were actually in both industies. Right So you know that’s why. Now that is precisely why know the work that you’re doing is so important. Because it’s really. It’s really hard to do that without without really being able to look under the hood. So Brontaslav wanted to get your thoughts on on Or get get your insights on on some of the tools you use. So we, we had a. We had a discussion off line where we talked a little bit about different thoughts and some of the analytical tools that are used in this in this space, Monte Carlo, being one of them. So maybe tell us a little bit about sort of the tools you use to do this work, this important work. and and maybe what, some of the pros and cons are that emerging in the intellectual debate in the financial services industry?

branislav_nikolic:
Would be glad to Hanks for that. So so I

ramsey_d_smith:
Yeah,

branislav_nikolic:
think that the ties to pulls pulls question as well into What happens if we want to retire in five years? What it will happen if you want to retire in ten fifteen? You got to have the way to test this out. So you know little framework that exists that has been In question over over last last one or two of your episode was Is Monte Carlo a good approach, and I’ll go straight to say that like all models are wrong, some are useful and there are tools that can do certain things, or tools that can not do certain things, but we waste the test. So the question that Paul asked is like What if I want to can retire in five or just ten years? I think our general approach to forecasting is that you have to take a long term view, because the capital of market assumptions Coming from investment banks or asset managers are ten year capital market assumptions. So if you do our d n analysis and an index apply capital markets assumptions to it, you get ten year forecast for an index. So it’s important to understand that this is not Co. Index will do tomorrow six months from now, two years from now. That this is a relatively long view on an index. Part of what goes into into our process is simulating the out, Basically taking the capital of market assumptions allying than with our, with our index in the d, n A. and kind of seeing what what a future holds. now, I would think that that’s appropriate and good use of simulation framework. I think more importantly is how you present your results. I think that every every and any tool is very dangerous. It could become very dangerous if you either unknowingly or got for deliberately misrepresent Results out of a two. or, or, even if you, if you as a user don’t understand, Um, So so the analogy that what? what you’re referring to, couple of episodes back was that what came out on Lee linked in was. Oh, let’s ban Monte Carlo, you, Ben Monte Carlo. Like three quarters of finance will help Um next day, and people say you, while like

ramsey_d_smith:
Hm,

branislav_nikolic:
this worked for a long time, worked in so many contexts that it’s working very well. Now there is that there’s the aspect where we say Oh advice. There’s usually use these to convey the message. Advisors misinterpret the results. And to me that’s like saying car is a bad idea because you give car to my toddler. Oh, that can be dangerous, but it’s very useful otherwise so so that’s that’s That’s where here we stand. So what we do is we take capital market assumptions from the market, what we call the wisdom of the Wall Street. We apply this to the set of analytical tools to identify Um. exposures of the industries, then simulate based on a couple of market assumptions and those exposures to get the index forecast, and the lastly, we have to what was saying, fully algorithmic way of locating within within anuitysbasically, using the results in a proper way to come up with the with starting locations for for these products,

jay_watson:
If I can just jump in here. It’s perhaps worth saying that

branislav_nikolic:
M,

jay_watson:
we’ve been producing these raw forecasts for industies for a couple of years now, and people in general very interested in them, as as a counter to simply looking backwards. It’s always interesting to look at history to have a field for things, but we try and look forward as well, and that’s what our forecast do for industries. But what we found was people who say. Yeah, Well, Great, but what’s it going to do when it’s in an index when it’s in an annuity, when it’s in a crediting strategy, and in particular people we spoke to clients, and they say, Look, I’m being presented. My clients are being presented with a choice of forty percent of the s. n P over a year or a hundred and seventy five percent participation in this bank index. I’ve never heard of How do I choose How where do I start? So what we did builds on what brands Lave explained. We took our role index forecasts, and we simulate what an index will do in a particular crediting strategy. So we take into account the participation

branislav_nikolic:
M

jay_watson:
we take into account fees. we take into account the crediting frequency, et cetera, et Cetera, All of the aspects that are required, we account for all of those on We, And a simulation out over ten years. When this goes back to Paul’s question, to try and get a field, an understanding of what a given crediting strategy might do, and the results are very striking. There’s a big variation in the results depending on the industies depending on the crediting strategies. So this is, we think this is very useful information, and it’s the basis Of these are our forecast, net forecast credits, and we use that, as Brandes pointed out, as the basis for our model applications, among those crediting strategies

paul_tyler:
Yeah, it’s

jay_watson:
in a

paul_tyler:
up.

jay_watson:
given

branislav_nikolic:
And

jay_watson:
F.

branislav_nikolic:
Ramsey,

jay_watson:
A

branislav_nikolic:
one thing,

ramsey_d_smith:
Go ahead on left.

branislav_nikolic:
Ramsey, One thing that you, you asked and I think it’s worth mentioning here is that we are the guardians of assumptions, so we believe that among us, we have enough experience and hand book know how to keep the assumptions in check, so that they are aligned perfectly, and when we get a capital market assumptions, we don’t take it from a single source. We take it from over fifty sources, and we then come up with our own that can reflect, Um. all of those. So the variation there, we try to smooth it out again when we apply it into into into our process. The other one is that we use the results of Let’s a simulations. In one step. We don’t say. Oh, this is going to be a single number. We provide distributions of results, we pick out moderate, conservative and strong, and we present all the data. So I think it’s also important to talk about what goes into the model, what comes out of the model and how Interpreted. and we, Our model location says what I referred to as an ultimate Che, Cheat on how to use a fixed indexcenuity You see that All you see how you locate, you see what industries are. You see how this is rated. You see what expected forecasted performance of the industries in the raw form ice, as well as through the through the annuity land, or of Crete strategy lands. So you have a full story to tell. How does hundred seventy five percent Partipation, Or nowadays, numbers that are like in two, three or four hundred, there are starting to sound like very odd to again, some one like my gramma. You ould say. Oh, you’ll get three times the performance of an index. Are you sure you can do that for me? Like that sounds fishy. I’ll go with a one that gives me up to a hundred percent. So all of that and mix together presented in a clear and concise way is what E are what we are advocating for. So at the end and consumer and user has has a Chan, So of a better outcome,

tisa_rabun_marshall:
A question. Congratulations on Un launching the ratings, but I have a question on design. Even behind the scenes, I sit in a marketing seat, so I imagine there’s several hours sitting in a room, brain storming and thinking through what you rolled out the decisions around are. The psychology may be around six levels versus eight or six levels versus three ratings, and sort of using medals versus some other reference to good Our best. I’m just curious. some of the discussion may have had there, and my follow up question to that is you know, how do you get the consumer who is already skeptical to pick anything other than platinum or if something moved from watch to gold? Like, how do you make them feel like? Yeah, this is actually going to you know, be beneficial to you. It’s like it’s if it’s watch. it’s always watched forever. In all ways, I’m never going to trust that it moved up. Just really curious. Some of the psychology as you thought through the ratings in and on the scale.

jay_watson:
Okay. That’s a great question. You are absolutely right. We did scratch our heads for a long time on this and we came up with our rating Platinum, gold, silver, copper, Neutral, and watch. We wanted something that immediately conveyed better or less good. We thought about lots of different possibilities. Stars. somebody suggested dollar signs. We thought that was not a good idea. What we wanted to convey was a sense of quality in a very simple way, So I don’t know whether we’ve got that right, but we’re going to stick with it. The other question you ask about. should someone only ever choose platinum? The answer that is, no, broadly speaking, the top three or four of our six categories. They’re all. They’re all good, But the platinum we think is the best, All of the platinum gold Silver. Those are all really well engineered industries, so you should be confident with any of those, and in particular those ratings they do move around through time of an index Is Platinum doesn’t necessarily stay platinum forever. We take into account in the the analysis of that score, that rating we take into account the Forecast performance of the index. Also, it’s live performance compared to its back tested performance. So as an index become live for a longer and longer, we give more weight to that live performance. If that’s good, then that will have a greater waiting. So if an index is rated silver, say it may go up. so the ratings do change not very much, their broadly sta, But they do change from month to month, But they do not lurch from platinum

ramsey_d_smith:
M.

jay_watson:
down to watch back up to gold again. there was no yo oing around. We were were confident when we designed the scoring structure that it would be stable, but it would move gently over time if I appropriate.

tisa_rabun_marshall:
Thanks,

paul_tyler:
I do think communicating potential outcomes is incredible, incredibly complicated. Love. the idea of an icon, M. now, I think of how we show ranges of outcomes today and it’s it’s difficult. I think our illustrations to you, so I think we show um, best, worst and last, and ironically, the last can actually be better than the best. The way the illustration rules work, and try to explain that to six year old consumer. Another one way we’ve we’ve looked at this, you know, brown, love, I think I’ve shared some of this work with you. We’ve looked at distribution outcomes. Now we’ve been doing this, you know, In a mirror looking backwards, and you start becatsome. Very interesting results. Some of these industies generate. You’re thinking of distribute normal distribution, cure very wide tails, Some very high peaks, So I’m sure there are many many covets, But you know all things being equal, you have an index. The goal of our of any type of guide is should be in my mind to help a sixty year old achieve safely achieve their retirement objective. Suppose we have fund A, that say shows, or projects that will generate, on average, say six percent return, And M with a standard deviation of say one or two per cent, so low, but very tight curve of outcomes, and we have almost same exact industy with averages nine percent, But the standard deviation is wider, meaning the chances of going you know lower than that more conservative fund is it could happen which which one gets the platinum, which one gets gold. Or have I just total Trashed your and walked over your model?

branislav_nikolic:
So you open, you opened two very important questions.

jay_watson:
Should I answer

branislav_nikolic:
I

jay_watson:
that,

branislav_nikolic:
think I think you should the last one, but I think you opened the very very very two very important questions. One is about the sales practices and illustration practices which we can get into you can get into, and the other one is Um, What’s what’s the preference? You started talking like means and stoundedeviations, And I did some that I in my schooling, But the key here is that My grandma doesn’t doesn’t understand a single word that you just said, So I think what what may work for for some one like her is like, Are you preferring index that’s hitting singles and doubles in baseball terms, or you’re looking for someone who is hitting home runs and which you prefer? It’s your thing. On average. they’re going to have the same number of rounds in the season to take a long term, So that’s the first thing, But the other one is that you mentioned illustration practices and impassionate about this one. It’s that I think they are. They’re kind of product of their time. If you go back to an n I cereals came about. It was like in early twenty tents, which just about two thousand eight. and I think that the last really meant to show. If two thousand eight happened, What what would the out can be? Now you? You move that rolling window away from two thousand eight, and last really becomes that you’re looking into the raging blue market hat we’ve seen. Now you’re starting To see a little bit of twenty, twenty, twenty or twenty twenty two coming in, but over all like eight out of out of those ten years are still phenomenal, so I think those are due to be to be adjusted to kind of prevent. what what I think is. It’s cheating that something that was meant to do a good thing include a widely bad outcome in those illustrations. Now in its place you are seeing the best possible thing that can happen to you. So so then and then, the third question that you asked is about How does the performance impact our rating, So I’ll go ahead and ask ask J to to give you give you the explanation there, Because that’s basically a difference between ratings and forecasts.

jay_watson:
Yeah, the answer Paul is, we do take into account our forecasts, but it’s only one of the things we look at. We’re not just looking for the index with the highest forecast. Put all your eggs in that basket. That’s not the approach we advocate. As I say, we’re trying to give an appraisal of how well engineered an index is how well how robust it is. Is it likely or less likely to do what it’s supposed to do? That’s what we’re looking for. And so to your question, Should somebody choose six percent return expected return with a vol of one and a half? By the way, that would be if you could find that index. Tell me, that’s amazing versus nine per cent with a Vol. Can’t remember what higher it depends. Is the preference. as brands said, it’s the preference of the end investor and that’s where the advisors come in in helping those end clients make a decision. Do you happy with singles? Oh, you’re happy with nothing. Nothing and then maybe the occasional home run. it’s up to the client. So our role as we see it is to try and put in front of people that information to help them make an informed choice. Help guide their own clients to what is most appropriate for

branislav_nikolic:
So

jay_watson:
those

branislav_nikolic:
is

jay_watson:
clients.

branislav_nikolic:
it fair if if I simplify it may be the other way that, if you’re look into our ratings, that will tell you that will describe the index. It would take everything that the index has to offer into consideration, and it would can tell you whether the index keeps its promise. In other words, whether the design that showed very well in design phase, or back to days carried into the future. Whether the mechanism works as described, How are the metrics coming out for for for Next mechanism? And then you combine that with a forecast, But you then can compare the forward looking view on how the index would perform, and you would say ideally you would pick like metal index, platinum, gold or silver, with a very stable return profile in the forecast, that doesn’t deviate much between conservative, moderate or strong, and then you look into even into the past, and say that now, last end Years or last twenty years, this index was returning five or six per cent. For we’re looking. we see somewhere between four and seven. That means that that’s indicative of what might might might have happened, but I think that’s that’s kind of. that’s harder to gage once you get into into the annuity and I think this is the last piece. and this. I was hoping that that was your question. Like how much you working of spending in the room, thinking about how to simplify the location with an annuity and how do you present those Results? So maybe maybe we want to talk. Talk about that for for for a second, And then do you want to want to lead it off, or do you want me just to say that again? The idea was there to make it simple. Make it. I’ll go it mic again, so there is no. there is no secret sauce in it. Everything is there. everything is disclosed and we want to give the option, especially in today’s hot higher than than what we’ve seen of our last year’s interest or environment given to F. A. There still fixed anuities. How much of above and beyond the fixed rates are these strategies bringing to the table? And should you consider the fixed rate that it’s now short history, but historically high. And what not? Do you want to maybe talk? Talk about the process for a little bit.

jay_watson:
Yeah, sure, thanks. have so again, we’re acutely aware that people are presented with a long list of choices which re going to be very difficult to understand these strange terms on unusual indusyes, strange indusies. What we do for every single crediting strategy is calculate the expected returns of that crediting strategy, So in fact, we calculate the moderate, and also conservative and a strong number, sort of weaker the expected value, and then a good scenario. We do that for each index, Each crediting strategy linked to each index. That’s the first step and it’s a big effort. So there might be five, six, there might be twenty different crediting strategies across three or five. in. She is. For each index we pick out the crediting strategy with the highest expected return. This is the selection part of the process, So for each index, look at the crediting strategy linked to it and pick the one with the highest expected return. Next step Check is that higher than the fixed rate? It jolly well ought to be, Because if it’s not higher than the fixed rate, why would you Take the risk of allocating to an index which the expected return is less than the fixed rate, So it’s less than the fixed rate. We throw it away, we discard it. We also discard an index of the best of its crediting strategies. The expected return is substantially less than the best available in that F. A. So there’s a big selection process. We try and sort out the wheat from the chaff You like. Once we made that selection, we then have two possible model applications. We propose. Both of them are fundamentally simple and both of them are based on the idea of diversification. So having made that selection in our first model, we just allocate equally to each of those selected industries. very very simple. The other model is a little bit more sophisticated. We tilt The locations according to the forecast. The expected returns are forecast for those crediting strategies. And so if the forecast, the expected return is higher, we give it more weight. If it’s less, we give it less weight. So you’re taking a little bit of a view according to the expected returns, But in both cases the selection is the same. The selection is looking to pick out for each index, the crediting strategies, which over the long Term, we think calculations show, demonstrate indicate will produce the highest returns over the long term.

bruno_caron:
Yes,

jay_watson:
Does that make

bruno_caron:
absolutely.

jay_watson:
sense? Everyone?

bruno_caron:
And it’s a very complex approach obviously to to help again to take Bronslab’s grandma and everybody else out there. Of course, you touched on diversification significantly earlier on. How is diversification achieved in the context of what you just said, Like having that algoritam picking and choosing different. You know, comparing

jay_watson:
Sure,

bruno_caron:
The the the expected return, Um. How is diversification achieved through this this process?

jay_watson:
Okay, Well, let me let me express it a different way. What we don’t do. You might be tempted if you have the for every crediting strategy of the expected return. Say Ha, there’s the highest one. Let’s put everything in that We don’t think that’s sensible. What we do is for each index we allocate where we check that the crediting the best crediting strategy for that index is not below the fixed rate or not too low. And then, if assuming that’s okay, then it gets an allocation. That’s the diversification we allocate to all of the industries where the crediting strategies are good to very good.

ramsey_d_smith:
So my comment? So Bruno? Actually? Did you have another follow one there before I jump in. Just going to say Bruno. Yes, it is it is. It is a complex process, but it’s also a a complex problem right, so industys, even simple induses have complexity, some of which I alluded to before. and then you know, many of the industries that are in in this space are even more complex because they’ve got lots of different rules and they’ve got Utility controls and lots of things like that. And so then there’s a. There’s a process valuating them at that level, And then you put them on to A and do an f. I a chasse. and suddenly you have all these right symmetries that are brought in because you’ve got you’ve got caps and things, so, I mean, I don’t know how one could actually sort of see fit to be able to optimize any of this without a very strong quantitative model, Which kind of brings us back to where we were with Ronesla earlier. Right

branislav_nikolic:
Oh,

ramsey_d_smith:
is at the end of the day you need a model, right, you need a model, and then, to the extent that you have a model, It, really, the discussion comes down to how robust are your in puts in your methodology, And so right, This whole discussion is really about like you know, you are describing the care that you put into those two critical elements to using this right. this sort of widely. Why The accepted way of evaluating evaluating the economic opportunity? So anyway, that’s that’s my. That’s

branislav_nikolic:
Oh,

paul_tyler:
Yeah,

ramsey_d_smith:
my twenty five cent summary. But did I did? I miss anything there, Bones love.

branislav_nikolic:
I think I think you get it. Get it right on and then Bruno, just to try to answer your question, Because again, I think the question that you ask like sounded simple, but I hear it as a very deep consequences. so one thing is that we try to read out redundancies in terms of strategies on the same index, because again those could be redundant. those could be all waiting. So for example, if you have an index and you have two strategies that perform the best You could say, Oh, give me half of one half of the other. You did not diversify. You just chose to different pay out structures on the same index. So that’s the first step how diversification comes into play. but we also rely on on diversification. Is that the carriers, when they are putting these in the sin like they are usually not redundant. So you, you wouldn’t have industries that are kind of carbon copy replica of one another with within the annuity, and the third one is diversity Cation. With respect to the fixed rate, a fixed rate is favorable compared to to those well performing strategies. So that kind of is kind of on a three levels of the versification that the dis offers Now, Could you could you go? Could you go deeper? Could you try to optimize? use use term that that Ramsey brought up like optimize? How can you optimize this? I think when you say optimize, people Go to mark of it. and like Moltiporfolio theory, and mean variant optimization, and the key with it a fixed in dexcnuities that allows us to be a little bit simpler to use a ittle bit more of a curistic approach. If if you want to call it is that you cannot lose money, these are principal protected product and you can really look into what’s the difference in my upside. Now you want to do this for, let’s say registered index annuities that you can lose the money. You definitely have to start measuring the downside and compare upside and downside and desk. This would kind of add you another level of the versification. Do you want to go for strategies? We can win big, but lose big occasionally, or you want go for a more stable stable return. So I think you’re asking a very deep question we’re trying to in a context of fixing eccenuities. answer it with a very simple solution. But there is a lot of lot of things that are going back on,

paul_tyler:
You know, this is a real problem,

jay_watson:
Ah,

paul_tyler:
our business that you are all solving, you know, and we’ve been a conferences. I’ve talked to Im. as we’ve talked some more top agents, and in selection is a very important issue. I think that really could benefit from. you know more support in the industry with the tools like yours. Um, I think last year You know the combination of bonds being down with stocks really heard a lot of these low vall induces, and I think the nejercoraction as I’ve heard from some agents is, I’m just going to put everything on the S and P five hundred, but that’s not the right solution for your clients. Necessarily

branislav_nikolic:
But you, sorry, I had to had to jump in you. you’re You’re saying two things you’re saying Control Industries didn’t work well last year, but going forward I’m going to put him into

paul_tyler:
Exactly.

branislav_nikolic:
how S impeded last year

paul_tyler:
I know Vranslavthere’s

branislav_nikolic:
Like these industries did a bit better than M. P,

paul_tyler:
Right

branislav_nikolic:
So

paul_tyler:
in going back. Going back to Ramsey’s point. We need structure around this

branislav_nikolic:
M,

paul_tyler:
and this is not a.

branislav_nikolic:
M,

paul_tyler:
You know, we’re not trying to time the market inside fix into exinuities. Nor should we. we need you know. J. that perspective look that encourages you know behavior that that creates outcomes that the products or designed to design to deliver. So I know we’ve got a lot more we can talk about Ramsey. Lot more more at the top of the hour. Um, you know, tis a. Do you you have any like last thoughts or comments on this topic?

tisa_rabun_marshall:
I mean, I think we all agree it’s complex, right and so I think this this rating system To de mystify it, break it down. make it simpler. So it’s interesting to hear you know some of the thoughts that went into building it, and um, I think I think it’s a step in the right direction, right to help

paul_tyler:
Yeah,

tisa_rabun_marshall:
the industry

bruno_caron:
Yeah,

tisa_rabun_marshall:
and to help the end consumer understand or make a decision in a different way,

paul_tyler:
Oh, an, I’d like to see our somer products and see the radiance you have here,

tisa_rabun_marshall:
Yeah.

paul_tyler:
Bruno, you, your last thoughts,

bruno_caron:
Well, I certainly applaud the indevor and the the initiative. I know I was in similar similar position not that long ago. and when things are going well and platinum and gold continued to be platinum and gold, you don’t necessarily get the metal. But when the boat starts rocking, then that’s when you get the tough question. So it’s It’s a tough. It’s a very difficult challenge and at the risk of stating the obvious, I know Complex environment, So yeah, I applaud the initiative well done,

paul_tyler:
Um, Ramsey,

branislav_nikolic:
Thank

paul_tyler:
bring

branislav_nikolic:
you.

paul_tyler:
us home.

ramsey_d_smith:
So

jay_watson:
Yeah,

ramsey_d_smith:
thanks again to Bronnaslav and J for being here. Hopefully, I should have pre summarized my my thoughts earlier. and so I think that your your question earlier about marketing this, and in the way it’s communicated super important. There’s everything about this. this, this challenge and opportunity is, it requires a lot of thought, everything from it, the quantitative progression to how we ate, He, and communicating it to the channel. So thanks to everybody for for another great episode, and thanks to the index standard for being such a great sponsor and friend of the show for the last year,

paul_tyler:
Yeah,

ramsey_d_smith:
Yeah.

paul_tyler:
hey, thank you all and

jay_watson:
It’s a pleasure,

paul_tyler:
once again thank

jay_watson:
thank

paul_tyler:
our

jay_watson:
you.

paul_tyler:
listeners. Listen. send us feed back. Call us. I get text. I get calls. I know everyone else does, and give us your opinions

bruno_caron:
M.

paul_tyler:
and we. we’ll continue this. the discussion, this topic. I think it’s really important for our business

bruno_caron:
M.

paul_tyler:
and join us kin next week for another episode of that annuity show.

Laura Dinan HaberEpisode 184: The Next Steps In FIA Index Recommendations with Branislav Nikolic and Jay Watson
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Episode 187: Making Sense Of The State Of The Economy With David Czerniecki

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Volatility seems to be the word of the day. Volatility in fuel prices. Volatility in the market. And of course, volatility in interest rates. David Czerniecki, the Chief Investment Officer of Nassau Financial Group joins our show today. He discusses current events and explains the difference in risk profiles between banks and insurance companies.

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Episode Transcript

The discussion is not meant to provide any legal, tax, or investment advice with respect to the purchase of an insurance product. A comprehensive evaluation of a consumer’s needs and financial situation should always occur in order to help determine if an insurance product may be appropriate for each unique situation.

paul_tyler:
Hi, this is Paul Tyler, and today I’d like to welcome David Zernicki, the Chief Investment Officer of NASA Financial Group to our show. Today is our quarterly review of the state of the economy. David, welcome.

david:
Thanks Paul, good to be here.

paul_tyler:
Yeah, thanks for making time. I know your time is precious these days. And the state of the economy is in quite a state.

david:
Mm-hmm. That’s indeed.

paul_tyler:
Now, the CPI, which we’ve been watching intensely, we’ve had a lot of conversations about over the last year or so. CPI finally looks like the inflation may be slowing. So do you think the Fed is finally winning the war or starting to win the war against inflation with all the rate hikes.

david:
We do, Paul. They are making progress, as we’ve stated in the past. It takes time for the rate-hiking mechanism to flow through to the real economy. The Fed’s tools are powerful but blunt, and so the rise in rates is having a dampening effect. I think there are a couple things going on. One is that, again, continued improvement in the supply chain, trade activity, and the you know, all the port jams are, you know, cleared. Things of that nature has helped, particularly on the good side. So we’ve seen progress there. Services costs are still up, and labor costs are still up, which is, we would expect, because labor tends to be more sticky. If I give you a raise, Paul, you’re not going to give it back when CPI comes down, which is why I didn’t give you a raise when you asked for one last week. But, no, seriously though, Paul. You know, so it does tend bit more sticky and the mechanism tends to be a little bit slower. The other thing is increases in rates will tend to slow economic activity and I’m sure we’re going to talk about that today, but slow down in economic activity will reduce demand for things and that too is disinflationary. So you are seeing traction. We don’t know when we’ll sort of get back to that 2% percent target but we are moving in that direction.

paul_tyler:
Yeah, well, this is good news.

david:
Thank you.

paul_tyler:
We’ve also had conversations in the past about how rising fuel prices works its way into almost every commodity we buy. Now, good news is that I’m driving past freeways on the Merit and 84, the numbers are going down. Now, how long does it take typically, or do you think it will take for those lower fuel prices to work its way through, you know, shipping cost of goods and things coming in from other countries.

david:
Sure. So, again, I think similar to the broader inflation context, it does take a while. One of the things that economists look at, in particular the Fed, is what they call core inflation, or core PCE, personal consumption expenditures. That’s their favorite number. And what that factors out is food and energy. Now, if, you know, for most working Americans, them so they haven’t the Fed tell you we’re factoring that out. You might as well factor out A or two, right? But the reason they do that is because the pricing mechanisms there are much quicker. So energy prices as we’ve all seen swing around week to week and pretty volatily at times. But what’s really happening? You’re starting to see inflation come down a bit. You are seeing some slowing in economic activity. And so less inflation. Reducing commodity prices, especially oil. And so therefore, you see that at the pump rapidly or more quickly, it’s transmitted. But also, slowing economic activity reduces demand for oil. And that’s what you’re starting to see pricing a little bit here, is people’s forward expectations of how much oil we’ll need for, not just to fill our cars, but to make plastics to build things, as we’ve talked about. somehow or other petrochemicals is everywhere and the less demand for goods and services, you know, the less demand there is for oil and so you’re starting to see that play through. I think you’ll continue to see volatility in oil. Geopolitical factors of course have been a big player there, independent of inflation and that’s not gone away, okay? But you are seeing slower economic forecasts both domestically abroad, particularly in China, which is a consumer of oil because they’re big manufacturing platform. So you are seeing it start to play through and I think that generally the trend will continue. Although I don’t think we’re going to see $10 oil anytime soon.

paul_tyler:
Yeah, let’s hope not.

david:
Right.

paul_tyler:
You use the word volatility a couple of times. Now, one thing that’s been exceptionally volatile over the last few months have been interest rates, short-term rates,

david:
Bye.

paul_tyler:
long-term rates. How do we make sense out of what’s happening with interest rates?

david:
A number of factors play into rates and we could spend a long time on all of these things, but let me just hit a few highlights. It’s clearly the level of rates, particularly in the short end, is set by institutions such as the Fed, the ECB, the Bank of China, etc., etc. So you’re seeing some of the volatility just coming from their actions. The longer term rate tends to be set by the market and the market will be putting into that. You’re factoring in. about where we’re headed from an inflation perspective. So to give a very simple example, if the market believes that the Fed is getting inflation under control, you would expect the longer end of the curve to come down because we’re not worried about the purchasing power of our paycheck 10 years down the line. And so you start to see rates come down. If we think the Fed doesn’t have it under control, you’ll see rates go up a lot. But other factors that play into rates are, outlook on GDP and economy. Well, the Fed is the, If that is raising rates right now to fight inflation, will they start cutting rates to fight a recession? So that’s a place. And now clearly from the past couple of weeks, a lot more economic uncertainty leads to a lot more volatility. If you take the view that we’re headed into recession and I take the view that we’re going to achieve self-lending, guess what? We have a market because you and I don’t agree on what the level of rates should be. And so we’re willing to trade around that. If your position is extreme, which it might be right now. are nervous and my position is you know adamant and firm you’re gonna have a lot more vol as we you and I try to trade so you’ll see that the other thing is and is is rates also reflect risk not just prices and so what you’re seeing is risk has dramatically repriced in the last couple of weeks that people have become more concerned about financial institutions about the general state of Again, if we go into a, let’s say a deep and prolonged recession, we’re not calling for that, but let’s just say that with a case. You wanna be compensated as an investor a lot higher to cover you for that. And so your expectation or our rates in return just changed dramatically.

paul_tyler:
You mentioned financial institutions, David, so you open the door here.

david:
Yeah.

paul_tyler:
It’s hard to have a conversation these days without talking about some of the bank’s in the news. Now, to what extent do you think bank failures reflect more in the state of the technology industry versus, say, a rise in interest rates?

david:
Um I, it is a little tough to parse, but, and usually there are some catalysts to some of these problems and challenges, and I think it’s easy to somewhat extrapolate and say, look, what happened in Silicon Valley Bank was unique to the tech space, it was an odd confluence of factors, it was an odd network, Paul, if I’m running a giant, giant, well-known venture capital fund, and I have lots of companies that I’m invested with, not to mention the network of folks that I’ve known in that industry for years because I’ve invested with the previous generation and the previous generation and the previous generation of tech companies. And I am worried about deposits at Silicon Valley Bank. I’m not just calling up the bank and saying, send me my money. I’m calling every one of my counterparts, constituents, my portfolio companies and saying, get your money out. So you can see how in that scenario, that network, that fabric of that space reacted very rapidly and very extremely to a concern. It’s a little bit of the thing of yelling fire in the movie theater. There we go. Okay. Okay. Okay. Okay. Okay. Okay. Okay. Okay. Okay. Okay. Okay. Okay. Okay. So there is an element of that, but I do think that is somewhat unique to Silicon Valley Bank. What that sparked is a general level of concern around mismatches of assets and liabilities in other smaller, I wouldn’t say poorly capitalized banks, but maybe not super well capitalized banks. The, you know, the Jagundo banks in our country, right, the big money center global banks are very living wills and they have significant restrictions on what they can and cannot do. They are monitored very, very closely, but we have thousands of banks in the country. It’s hard to monitor all of them very, very closely. And so Silicon Valley banks problems spook the market. Banking is a confidence game. People may forget, but we have what’s called fractional banking in this country. When you put $100 in the bank, They’re only keeping a few bucks around to give back to you on a given day because they’re putting that money to work in loans and Securities and things like that so that they can pay you an interest rate And so it’s not all there on any one day And I think what you’ve seen is a bit of a spooking of that It has largely been centered or focused on regional and smaller banks, but as you’re well aware we read the papers and Other issues of confidence have hit some of the bigger banks, not in the US, but international banks as well. Not just about fractional reserve banking and about mismatches of assets and liabilities, but other business issues have had an impact in the way folks have reacted in the sector.

paul_tyler:
Yeah, and I guess if you think about banks and insurance companies, some similarities, a lot of differences.

david:
future.

paul_tyler:
What is the difference in risk profile today of a bank and an insurance company? Maybe it’s a balance sheet comparison. I mean, what’s the best way to put these sectors in relative

david:
Yeah, no, that’s

paul_tyler:
comparison?

david:
a good question, Paul, because I think there’s a natural tendency to, you know, we are all in the financial services industry, you know, and we know that. And we do similar things, you know, a bank takes deposits and it makes loans, a traditional bank, an insurance company, you know, takes in premium and invests it in order to, you know, and we’re both doing the same thing. We’re providing a return to that investor, that depositor over time. So there’s that thematically. There’s that similarity. But, but insurance and banking is very different in other respects. You know, insurance companies generally speaking aren’t designed to be liquidity providers per se. Again, we go back to the example you put your $100 in the bank on Friday, on next Monday you decide you want to, you know, get lunch and you go take your $100 out and you expect them to give it to you. When you deposit, you know, when you purchase an insurance policy, an annuity or a life policy, you that you’ve signed up for a period of time before you can access that $100. It’s a little bit more like buying a CD, let’s say, right? And so we then turn around and invest that money along the lines of what we’ve promised to pay. So the asset and liability, so the liability is what we owe to you. Our assets are what we invest in in order to meet that obligation. The liability and the asset well matched with banking. Some of it is matched, but also there’s a lot of guesswork as to whether or not you’re going to show up on Monday because you need cash for your turkey sandwich. And so you get these disconnects, and so it can happen more rapidly in banking. Insurers have controls over that. We have surrender agreements, and we have contractual agreements with policyholders, And part of the way we’re able to do that is because we have more certainty around when we need to return that money. If I have to have your money there in the bank every day for you because I don’t know when you’re going to want your jerky sandwich, I can’t invest it the same way as we can as an insurance company. If you promise me I can have it for a year, we invest that $100 different.

paul_tyler:
Yeah. Well, listen, very interesting. Yeah, time, you know, time is valuable. And I think it sounds like the structure of the insurance policies in some way give us a little more buffer from those sudden runs that, you know, banks may be exposed to, which is should be reassuring for our policyholders. Well, David, listen, thank you so much for your time today. This is great. And listen, we’ll look forward to having you back again in another few months and hopefully we’ll have the Federal Reserve in our banking system will have navigated these rapids successfully. So thanks so much, David.

david:
You’re welcome, Paul. Thank you.

Nick DesrocherEpisode 187: Making Sense Of The State Of The Economy With David Czerniecki
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Episode 186: Simplifying Market Exposure and FIA Indices with Josh Mellberg

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Sometimes very basic questions can be hard to answer when it comes to annuities. One example – How much exposure does a specific vol-controlled index actually have to the market? Josh Mellberg joins us today to show how to use simple match to estimate relative exposure across different indices at one given point in time. The question may become more common as clients looks for ways to make up for declines in 2022.

Links mentioned in the show:

White Paper View only Linkhttps://www.canva.com/design/DAFb7vQeOtI/VF-N4Ox6DW9zlLJqhGFXdA/view?utm_content=DAFb7vQeOtI&utm_campaign=designshare&utm_medium=link2&utm_source=sharebutton

Risk Control Calculator: https://forms.zohopublic.com/secureinvestmentmanagement/form/RiskControlTool/formperma/bxij_AEky1gQM6kvYHzz1BtXOQAk-1XrOO2tmQ0y72I

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Episode Transcript

The discussion is not meant to provide any legal, tax, or investment advice with respect to the purchase of an insurance product. A comprehensive evaluation of a consumer’s needs and financial situation should always occur in order to help determine if an insurance product may be appropriate for each unique situation.

mark:
Thank you.

paul_tyler:
Hi, this is Paul Tyler and welcome to another episode of that annuity show. Ramsay, how are you this morning?

ramsey_d_smith:
I’m good, always happy to be here.

paul_tyler:
Good. Hey, looking forward to our innovation retirement event we’ve got cooking in New York on Monday. Can’t wait for your panel.

ramsey_d_smith:
Absolutely. One of the topics we’ll be talking about today, dovetails nicely with what we’ll be talking about on Mondays. This is great.

paul_tyler:
This is great. And Mark, wonderful to have you back.

mark:
Thanks Paul, it’s great to be back. It’s been a while and I’m glad to be back on the program.

paul_tyler:
Yeah, yeah, no, and you’ll be introducing a panel as well in New York, so looking forward to it on the, what’s the role of the advisors, right, going forward? How do we help them? How do we help clients get advice? So thanks for doing that. And we’ve got a great guest, returning guest, somebody we’ve done for a long time. Mark, do you wanna do the intros? I’m Mark Lerner, and I’m a CEO of the company.

mark:
Yeah, sure, I’m perfect timing in terms of the role of the advisor in the ever-changing world in terms of the marketplace. And it’s great to have Josh on. I’ve known Josh for over 10 years. Josh, I think you started your business back in 2006. And you’ve always had an incredible passion for education and marketing. And you’ve done a phenomenal job in terms of your outreach through infomercials and advertisements. I think you’ve reached over 14 million households over the years, primarily educating on the you know, guarantees of income in retirement and not guarantees and the benefits of annuities. And now you’re taking a different look at it in terms of the various indices and crediting strategies that are out there. And obviously the ball control strategies have come into play over the last several years, a big byproduct of low interest rates. And you see a concern in the marketplace in terms of understanding that. So I know you’re working on a white paper around this and you put together a really cool tool slash app, if you will. that I think does a great job in terms of really breaking it down to the fundamentals and giving the basics behind it. So without, why don’t you tell us a little bit about when this became a concern from your perspective in terms of the need for education and how you feel this approach is best suited in terms of reaching the, not only agent but end consumer.

joshua_mellberg:
You know, Mark, it’s never been better to be in this annuity environment that we’ve been in today. For almost 15 years, rates have been very low. And annuities provide protected growth, or they can provide income for life. And these insurance companies have gotten more and more innovative because interest rates have been so low for such a long time. And they’ve been trying to figure out how to get more return for the client or for the policyholder. And that’s where they created these amazing risk controls. What’s happened in this last year as interest rates spikes short term rates and longer term rates with the innovative products, it’s just put a lot more juice for the client’s potential for them to make some money or generate more income with this innovation of the products out there today.

mark:
And have you seen a shift in terms of, I guess, utilization? I mean, I guess if you look back three or four years, there was very high concentration in folks electing the volatility control structures and the

joshua_mellberg:
Mm-hmm.

mark:
bespoke indices. And again, you’re going to big buy product of the low rate environment and the impact on option budgets. And now with option budgets, you know, much higher than they were, participation rates caps on standardized indices higher. Now they’re starting to look at, you know, the full platform. This is where, I think, becomes important to really kind of understand, you know, what par rates are relative to each other in these different types of indices, and how to really best explain that in terms of the participation that you’re actually getting in that underlying credit behind the scenes.

joshua_mellberg:
Yeah, well over a decade ago it was pretty simple. You know, you get a cap of 10% or a monthly cap of 3%. And a lot of these companies, if they didn’t have a cap, maybe you get a percentage of the S&P 500 on a monthly average or annual point-to-point or so on. Now that these rates have increased, what the insurance carrier does is they take the interest rate and they take that rate by calls or they buy options on major indexes such as the S&P 500 NASDAQ or the innovative indexes that you guys make. The rates have and the risk controls, if it’s a one-year maturity date, the insurance company can get a certain amount of percentage, but if they go two years or three years out on a percentage, they can get more purchasing power or juice on the options, which allows the policy holder to get a lot more crediting rate. because for about 15 years, there’s only so much water you could squeeze out of that rock, and it’s really hard to get a client a rate that beats inflation. And so that’s where clients are looking at these more and more, because if you look at just last year, bonds were down close to 20%. S&P was down close to 20%. And inflation was almost double digits. is getting hit in three different ways. And that’s why people are trying to beat inflation safely. And that’s why these products have never been better.

ramsey_d_smith:
So one of the things that’s happened in the last, I’ll call it at this point, yeah, it’s almost 10 years since the first one of these came out and just full disclosure, this is a business that I ran in my prior life at one of the investment banks. One of the things that’s happened though is there’s been a proliferation of lots of different choices. And so how should people think about choosing, even within a single platform, there may be multiple different types that are offered. I mean, how can you help, how do you help your clients or the people that you advise to think about either allocating between those various indices or choosing one or the other?

joshua_mellberg:
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Well, I think financial advisors and policyholders are trying to put their arms around how much is my contract going to make. How do I measure that? Well, what has to happen for them to get a good return? And obviously, the policyholder has options. They can put their money in the fixed bucket yielding 4% to 5%, depending what company you choose. They can choose an S&P 500 option that has no cap and a lot of the competitive rates out there are 50 to 70% participation rates. But then they have those innovative risk controls. And there are several hundred risk controls out there today. And how do you know which ones are good terms and how do you know which ones are not good terms? Because I remember back in 2007 when I actually had some clients in the index annuities, but they had monthly caps at the time. And I had a fairly upset client. And because I kind of said, well, you get market index upside, but you don’t have the downside. And I think that year they made five or 6% interest on their policy, but the market was up almost 20%. So there was a disconnect on what the client thought they were going to make and what the policy actually credited. And that became a pretty fast learning curve to say, well, how can I manage the client’s expectations? Because this is supposed to compete with savings vehicles. necessarily could be supposed to compete with investments. And so as these risk controls became more and more innovative, now you’re seeing participation rates at 100%, 200%, 300% or higher, and what 300% of what? And so what we did with our CFA is we kind of broke down a kind of a chart to help financial professionals understand what is your equity exposure? What is your participation rate in? of that is working for you today. And for those of you who can see the screen, I’ll share it with you. But one of the indexes that these are shared with is geared towards the VIX. The VIX is known as the Volatility, is a Volatility Control Index. It’s also known as the Fear Index. And you probably see this on CNBC You’ve heard about this in the past. But essentially, the VIX determines what the cost of an option is on the S&P 500 or US markets. The average VIX historically has been close to 16 and 1 half. And it changes. It changes depending if fear is high, if the VIX can spike, if fear is low, the VIX can drop. And you can see a little bit of the history of the VIX, but back in 2018, the VIX was the lowest 12. Just a few days ago, it hit as high as 31 recently. Why is that important? Well, if you were to purchase a call in the S&P 500 for, say, it’s a $100 call option at the price of $20, and then a month later, the VIX is at $30, and you bought that same call option, you would need almost 50% more dollars to buy the contract for if it was a VIX, it was at 30. And I share that with you because these vol controls you typically see, they’re issued in vol control fives, vol control sixes, vol control eights, vol control tens. And some of them go as high as 16 and 1 half. And why is that important? Well, if you take a look at a vol control

ramsey_d_smith:
Can I ask you to actually just to clarify

joshua_mellberg:
five,

ramsey_d_smith:
one thing? When you say a vol control five, seven, 10, because not every been in our audience may understand that. What you’re saying is that’s, that is the lower the number, the more strict the vol control is, and the higher the number is, the more wide the vol control is. Is that correct? Yeah.

joshua_mellberg:
That’s a good way of saying it. I’d also look at it from this way. The lower the vol control number, the less equity exposure you have. So the lower percentage that’s working for you today. So if the market goes up by 1%, the lower amount of your dollars are in equities, and maybe more money’s in cash or bonds, if you can look at it that way. So in this white paper here, this kind of shows an example where if you had a S&P 500 risk control five, which you can actually get those indexes and buy the vault controls on the S&P 500 if you chose to. But the Vault 5 and the VIXBIN at 20 today, that tells me five goes into 20, what percentage? Five goes into 20 is 25%. So that tells me you have 25% equity exposure with the VIXBIN 20

mark:
And

joshua_mellberg:
today.

mark:
Josh, I don’t know if you’re looking to have the white paper on the screen. It’s not currently on the screen. It’s still the volcadral indices.

joshua_mellberg:
Okay, let me show the white paper here. Maybe you can see it now.

mark:
Yes.

joshua_mellberg:
Yep. So essentially, what doesn’t change is the vol 5, or the vol 6, or vol 8. What does change is the VIX. So just probably about a week ago, when the banks were crashing, the VIX was as high as 30. So if you had a vol till it control 5 at 100% participation rate, 5 goes into 30 about 17%. So that means you would have 17% equity exposure if you bought that vol till it control directly. The reason I share that with you, And Paul, is that a lot of these indexes are giving 200% participation rates. So if the VIX is at 20 like it is today and you have a vol total to control 5, which only has a 25% equity exposure, your participation rate at 200% is really 50% equity exposure. So all that means is if the S&P 500 goes up by 1%, your equity exposure for that day was half percent, 50 percent of that. Does that make sense?

mark:
It does. In a sense, it’s a way of looking at it where 100% isn’t always 100% relative to the other variable factors that go into it. I guess one analogy to look at it from a different perspective is like on an income rider. You have roll-up rates and you’ve got payout factors. Just because you might have a higher roll-up rate does not necessarily mean the income’s going to be higher. It also depends on what that payout factor is to get to that net number. So you need to look at a couple different points of reference to really understand what your opportunity is in terms of getting a credit, correct? So I’m going to go ahead and do a quick quick review of what I’m going to be doing next. I’m going to be doing a quick review of what I’m going to be doing next. So you need to look at a couple different points of reference to really understand what your opportunity is in terms of getting a credit, correct? So I’m going to go ahead and do a quick review of what I’m going to be doing next. So I’m going to go ahead and do a quick review of what I’m going to be doing next. So I’m going to go ahead and do a quick review of what I’m

joshua_mellberg:
Exactly, exactly. So if we take another example here, if you had a risk control 10 on the index that you choose and 10 goes into 20 is 50 percent, well, in that example here, if you had a 200 percent participation rate and you had a risk control 10 and the VIX is at 20 today, you would actually have 100 percent equity exposure. So if the S&P, as an example, went up by 1 percent, you would also go up by 1 percent. like it did in 2018, and you had a risk control 10 at a 200% participation rate, your index account, your index would go up by 1%, you’d go grow by 166% for that day. So what’s great about this is the higher the risk control, think of it the more equity exposure potential you have. such as risk control five or six, then you need a much higher participation rate to have the same equity exposure. So if you looked at the chart below here, if you wanna have 100% participation rate of the equity, of the S&P to 500 a day, and you have a vol five, you need a 400% participation rate on that vol five to have it, the market goes up by one, you make 1%.

paul_tyler:
Y a-

joshua_mellberg:
But if you had a vol controls 10, If the market went up by 1%, you’d only need a 200% participation rate out of all control 10.

paul_tyler:
Yeah, I like Josh how this connects the dots. I think too often people look at the products we offer and you look at, to Mark’s point, you look at roll-up rates or you look at participation rates. Volatility controls have added sort of another element and I think it’s tough to sometimes put those together. Now, you spend a lot of time, as Mark said, connecting with 14 million households. Where are their heads right now? Now, bonds went down last year as did equity. We know it’s like, I think the third time in the last hundred years where that happened.

joshua_mellberg:
I mean.

paul_tyler:
But if I open up my 401k and I saw that my account went down 20%, this is interesting, right? Simple math. Gosh, how much does my account have to grow to get back to where I was? Oh, 25%. You know, is volatility, are volatility controls now something that less is better in this environment or are they going to say please in this whole crazy marketplace take some of their risk off the table.

joshua_mellberg:
Yeah, there’s a lot of the consumer right now is scared. They took a big hit. Those people that were prudent and diversified, they took a big hit in their bond funds, and streets went up, bonds went down. The stock funds went down, and inflation’s going up. So what’s helped them keep up with inflation a little bit is their houses prices for last year. Their house prices went up. This year, housing is expected to go down. And we don’t know what the market’s going to do. It’s going to kind of stuck in the muck and very volatile. because they feel inflation or shrinkflation, things are getting much more expensive, but they don’t want to lose their money. So they’re seeing losses as inflation goes up, and they don’t know who to trust. If you look at the banks, a lot of people are pulling their money out of the banks. What’s nice to say is not one insurance company with a fixed annuity or indexed annuity has ever lost principal. That’s what, not even when insurance companies went under, no one’s ever lost it. a dime. Policy holders always got their money out. So right now people are trying to get, try to protect their assets and how do you do that and how do you fight inflation safely. And even though my go rates are really great, they’re 5%, that’s not keeping up with inflation after taxes.

mark:
So I think one really important thing in terms of the innovation behind this, and we’ve talked about this on previous shows, and I know Paul and Ramsey have talked about it too, is that people tend to kind of fall waves, right? So when the income writers first

joshua_mellberg:
Thank

mark:
came

joshua_mellberg:
you.

mark:
out, you saw huge utilization, 80%, 90% utilization, and the timing made sense because it was after 2007, 2008, 2009 when those really became and people were scared. And they’re making decisions in terms of, they’re a long-term protection based on that. And then the market started doing really well, and then you saw people dialing back in terms of the utilization of that, thinking, hey, this is great, do I need to spend the money for a rider fee when I can make more of my credit rates and do systematic withdrawals? And then you get a little shake up of the market

joshua_mellberg:
Mm-hmm.

mark:
and you start to see these trends shift. And I think, looking at that analogy on the income riders, I think the same holds true on these crediting strategies. You know, back when interest rates were low, these came out optically, you know, those par rates were much higher, and you saw people really move towards that, and now you’re seeing a move back. I think the key here is that there’s not one that’s good or bad, you know, it’s really diversification in different market environments, and it’s having a portfolio that allows really the benefit of picking and choosing different opportunities in different market environments, because it’s not like you’re making a selection today that’s really only gonna impact based on today’s market. These are long-term programs for people’s retirement. And I think the more options, the better. And obviously, what you’re doing to educate, hey, I’m not saying one’s right, one’s wrong, but here’s how you got to look at the differential to balance it out and figure out which ones make sense for which part of your portfolio. So, I’m going to go ahead and do a quick recap. I’m going to go ahead and do a quick recap. I’m going to go ahead and do a quick recap.

joshua_mellberg:
Mark, this is why more than ever it makes sense for advisors to become fiduciaries and understand what indexes are the best ones to choose from. And I think that’s critical knowing how to pick which indexes are across the board. I’ll kind of walk you through a cool calculator we made, if you can see the screen. Basically how do you know which? number is right for you. Different companies are going to have different numbers. They can have a five or six or an eight or a 10. They go as high as 16 and a half. But if you put in the risk control number, 90% of the risk control vols are fives. You can just typically, it says vol five right next to it or on the index you choose. And then you can look up what the VIX is. You can by clicking this link, it’s 21.6 today. So I’ll just type in 21.6. And then what is the participation rate you’re getting? So some of these companies are paying 200, 300% participation rate. I’ll just put 200% in there. And what this shows is it shows what your approximate equity exposure today or participation rate on a vol five with the VIX being at 21. Well, today it would be at 23.15, but because you’re gonna 200% participation rate, your equity exposure is closer 3. But if you wanted 100% equity exposure, you would need to have a 431% participation rate. So if the S&P went up by 1%, you would also gain 1% for today. And so I share that with you because this kind of compares what you would need if you had a risk control 10, what would your estimated equity exposure be, or participation rate, which would be 46%. 100% equity exposure on a risk control then, what would you need? And if you had a risk control 16 and 1 half, and there’s a couple carriers that have higher risk controls like 10 or 16 and 1 half, then you would have 76% equity exposure on a risk control 16 and 1 half. But if you had 200% participation rate, it would be much higher than that. It’d be closer to 150% participation rate. So this just kind of points out that when choose indexes and vol controls, make sure you have if you have a low risk control, make sure it has a very high participation rate, or it’s okay to have a much lower participation rate if you have a higher vol control. The reason this is important, Mark and Paul, is I don’t think financial advisors and consumers really understand how much the money is growing today or what’s going to make over the year. How do you calculate that? It’s easy to calculate if you have a 50% participation

ramsey_d_smith:
Mm.

joshua_mellberg:
rate on the S&P 500, you make 10, that’s easy. But it’s not easy to see behind the scenes if the market goes way up how much of that gain did you make when the market rips.

mark:
Yeah, and obviously I think there’s other factors too in terms of like the volatility itself and how quickly that moves, what type of… you know, either a crediting period or a longer duration. And that’s why it’s important to obviously, number one, have the choices, right? And then number two, to be able

joshua_mellberg:
Thank you.

mark:
to monitor

joshua_mellberg:
Thank you.

mark:
it, you know, as you go looking at each term when it comes up for maturity and saying, okay, well, let’s maybe adjust based on where we either think the market’s going or experiences that we’ve had based on, you know, the allocations that were made prior to. So, I think that’s a good point. I think that’s a good point. I think that’s a good point.

paul_tyler:
So I’m curious, if Ramsay’s presenting this to me, Josh, when does he optimize for higher exposure and when does he optimize for lower? What’s, you know, if I’m the client, what would dictate going up or down? So, I’m curious, if Ramsay’s presenting this to me, Josh, when does he optimize for higher exposure and when does he optimize for lower? What’s, you know, if I’m the client, what would dictate going up or down?

joshua_mellberg:
Well, I think most advisors and most clients just say, oh, wow, I get 300% of the gains of that index. And they’re like, that’s pretty good. How is that possible? That’s what they think. It sounds too good to be true. And a 300% participation rate or 400% participation rate is not too good to be true because the vol control is very low. It’s in a way, it’s marking things up to mark things down, call the sale. So how do you know how much money is working for you in the market in a way? That’s kind of how I try to simplify it. It’s really simple. You can see the fixed bucket at 4% or 5%, or you can see the S&P 500 at 50% participation rate. You can measure that. But how do you measure how much money is really going up for you? And I think you have to look at what the VIX is at for the day or for the average for the year. And you got to look at your participation rate with the vol number. You have to have all three calculations to be able to say, do I have a shot of making 20% if the market really goes up? high ball toe to control, like a 16 and a half, you really do have a good shot of making double digits. But if you have a very low ball control and the VIX is high average for the year, then I think there’s going to be disappointment when the market rips by 20% and client statements come in at 5 and 6. But here again, if you look back in 2018, there was times where the VIX was only around 12, and this risk control 5s did really, well. So I just think we’re gonna have elevated volatility ever since the pandemic and it’s gonna be like that for the next couple years with all the things going on with inflation.

mark:
Ram’s here on mute.

ramsey_d_smith:
You got me now?

mark:
Yep.

ramsey_d_smith:
Sorry about that. It’s saying,

joshua_mellberg:
Yep, we can hear you.

ramsey_d_smith:
look, there’s a lot of really good and important science behind these volatility controlled indices. And to your point, Josh, essentially what dealers and asset managers do with these is they translate what would have been a participation rate or what

joshua_mellberg:
Thank

ramsey_d_smith:
would

joshua_mellberg:
you.

ramsey_d_smith:
have been a cap, they translated that into an asset allocation policy between a risky asset, i.e. equities, asset bonds, right? And for a, a, a, a, a vol control five, the relationship is going to be a lot more bonds, relatively speaking than stocks and for a risk control 16, it’s going to be the other way around. And so, you know, when it ends up being presented to the end consumer and they’re told they get, you know, a multiple percentage, like 300% of the, of all control index, we’re really what’s happening is to your point, that can be done because the index underlying index is less risky because less of the index is assets are allocated into the risky asset. So I think that having a tool that helps both advisors and their clients understand directionally what these things mean I think is super important. Because the underlying engineering, if you will, is really like it’s fairly complicated. But I think if people have that top line from a 1,000 foot understanding of what it means to have low vol, expensive, exposure versus high ball exposure, I think is important. And that gets people a long way to where they need to go to make a good decision.

mark:
Thank you.

joshua_mellberg:
Yeah, Ramsey, you hit the nail on the head. A lot of agents are looking at the illustrations and they’re backtesting. And they’re backtesting the hypotheticals and they’re backtesting on when volatilita is much lower. And so I guess the question would be is if you had a 25% participation rate on the S&P 500, would you go to a client and ask them if you’re going to average 8% per year and tell them they’re going to average 8% per year? I think the answer would be, most advisors would be no, you’re not going to average 8% with a 25% participation rate. And I think that a lot of the agents are looking at just the backtesting in a bull market when the market went straight up and when volatility was very low. And that’s not really fair to say what’s going to happen forecasting, what’s going to happen in the future, because volatility is much higher, rates are a lot higher, and the lower vol controls can do very well, but you have to have a 300% or 400% participation rate to really. compared to a volatile control 16 and a half or so.

paul_tyler:
So.

mark:
So it’s interesting. We have a really interesting dynamic on this podcast here today because Josh, you’re looking at from the standpoint of helping educate agents, advisors, consumers in terms of how these all play together. And Ramsey, you’ve developed one of the very first, if not the first ones of these strategies. So I guess a question from your perspective is Josh talks about the education behind it in terms of how they interplay with each other has the way these unfolded worked out the way that you anticipated initially when you designed. And then secondly is the behavior patterns along the lines of what you thought might happen in terms of the way that they’ve drawn attraction.

ramsey_d_smith:
Wow, so there’s a lot in that question. So first and foremost, one was this idea that in a low rate environment, you did wanna give people different ways to make money. For us, one of the most important things was to be able to take institutionally available investment strategies. So strategies that were only available institutions that we had developed at my prior firm and actually being to deliver them in an FIA and using that in a vol control context as something to provide another way to get exposure, like diversified exposure beyond just the S&P. So there was that piece of it for sure. I think to say beyond that what’s been amazing to me is how many of the indices there are now. So the first index was in 2012. Trader Vic with an insurance company whose name I won’t mention. And it was probably about three or four years until a lot of other ones started to come out and then it just took off. So now I think the interesting challenge is to give consumers and advisors some simpler decoder rings, if you will, to figure out how to make some decisions. Because the reality is, if you line up industries next to each other. As somebody who’s in the business, sometimes industries, indices all feel very different to me. One versus the other. But there are some big commonalities that I think people should focus on. So for example, sort of, the control levels and again the par rates they translate into I think are very important for people to understand. So they see it as a choice. It’s not magic, it’s just math, right? It’s really, it’s math. And so you want to give advisors and customers some Some good rules of thumb to help them with the math But having to get sort of deep into the science and I think that I think that tools that help you view that are you know are valuable

paul_tyler:
Yeah,

ramsey_d_smith:
Did I

paul_tyler:
I

ramsey_d_smith:
answer your group your question?

mark:
Yeah, no, very much so. Appreciate

ramsey_d_smith:
All right,

mark:
it.

ramsey_d_smith:
cool.

paul_tyler:
Yeah, Josh, I think bottom line what your tool does is allow advisors to have better conversations with clients and better inform them and set expectations that have a higher likelihood of showing up on a statement. And I don’t think we can

joshua_mellberg:
Thank

paul_tyler:
overestimate

joshua_mellberg:
you.

paul_tyler:
this. Mark, we get calls all the time from clients who’ve forgotten that they put money into a two-year strategy and they say, well, why don’t I see a zero return a year one. Well, let me remind

joshua_mellberg:
Mm-hmm.

paul_tyler:
you what a two-year, how a two-year strategy works. I don’t think we can underestimate the need to make these conversations as clear as possible in the beginning. So, Josh, tell us what’s next. We’ll certainly share your, we’ll share a link to your white paper, Mark. I think that’ll pass muster. I think what’s next this year? This is gonna become a valuable tool for advisors to use.

joshua_mellberg:
Yeah, if you download the white paper, it’ll kind of give an example of the history of the VIX. It will show what kind of rates you need to be equal to 100% equity exposure. And there’s a calculator link in it that you can plug in. There’s going to be so many great innovative indexes and participation rates that come out. And it’s great. And in competition, the consumer wins. The advisor wins. So I think the important thing is to, there’s a basic rule. It’s the thumb is if the risk control is let it go, it has a very high participation rate. And then the higher risk control number, like a 10 or 16 and a half, you can actually have more equity exposure and more gains for the client at a much lower participation rate because you just have more money working for you in the market. So I think that advisors and agents are gonna start doing their due diligence more than just who’s the manager behind the index. They’re gonna start looking at what is the risk control number and what does that mean and real returns for the forecasting

paul_tyler:
Yeah,

joshua_mellberg:
in the future.

paul_tyler:
well thank you. And Ramsey, any final thoughts or questions here?

ramsey_d_smith:
No, I just want to reiterate what I said. I think rules of thumb are very important in finance because finance is, finance generally speaking, whether at an institutional level or at a personal level is a natural tension between a great deal of precision on one side and on the other side, some really important rules of thumb. And in fact, my experience is that much of the finance will really relies on rules of thumb from day to day. So many of them are very, important. That’s probably for another podcast to go into some of those, but I think it’s valuable.

paul_tyler:
That’s great, Mark, you want to close for us.

mark:
Yeah, you know, I agree with Ramsey’s comments about kind of setting a baseline rules of thumb. And you know, what’s interesting is, you know, the product lines have changed so much over the years. And the one constant that we continuously hear out there is there’s complexity in these products and there’s a need for education. And I think that that’s not going to go away. And I think the more that we can set understandings out there and reach the masses through, you know, pathways that that Josh does very well. I think the more education, the better. So I think this is a great way to kind of help, you know, bring that pathway to not having them be so, you know, complex and misunderstood. So I think this is great. I think this is great.

paul_tyler:
Excellent. All right. Hey Josh, thanks for coming back and catching us up on what you’re doing. Mark Ramsey, thanks. And thanks to our listeners. Give us feedback. Send us comments. And otherwise, tune in next week for another episode of That Anoddy Show. Thanks.

Nick DesrocherEpisode 186: Simplifying Market Exposure and FIA Indices with Josh Mellberg
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