Retirement

191: Making Sense of The Financial Markets with David Czerniecki

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How do you explain the turmoil in the financial markets to your clients? Today, we’re replaying a presentation that David Czerniecki, Chief Investment Officer for Nassau Financial Group recently gave to some of our top independent producers. Joe Jordan joins us as a guest host introducing the topic. To see the slides, watch the video version of this on our website.

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Episode Transcript

The discussion is not meant to provide any legal, tax, or investment advice with respect to the purchase of an insurance product. A comprehensive evaluation of a consumer’s needs and financial situation should always occur in order to help determine if an insurance product may be appropriate for each unique situation.

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Laura Dinan Haber191: Making Sense of The Financial Markets with David Czerniecki
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190: The State Of The Annuity Market With Scott Hawkins

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Earlier this year, we hosted our second innovation in retirement event called Retiretech 2.0. Scott Hawkins, Managing Director and Head of insurance research at Conning delivered a keynote address on macro trends driving the annuity market today. We play his presentation on this show today.

Learn more about Nassau’s Retiretech Forum 2.0: https://imagine.nfg.com/retiretech-forum-2-0/

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Episode Transcript

The discussion is not meant to provide any legal, tax, or investment advice with respect to the purchase of an insurance product. A comprehensive evaluation of a consumer’s needs and financial situation should always occur in order to help determine if an insurance product may be appropriate for each unique situation.

Transcript:

00;00;00;00 – 00;00;25;12
Speaker 1
Welcome to that annuity show, the podcast that will make you an expert in explaining annuities to your clients. Give us 30 minutes each week and we’ll shave hours from your client presentations. Now here’s your host, Paul Tyler.

00;00;25;15 – 00;00;31;28
Speaker 2
Hi, this is Paul Tyler and welcome to another episode of that annuity show. Ramsey, how are you today?

00;00;31;29 – 00;00;34;23
Speaker 3
Fantastic. Happy Friday.

00;00;34;25 – 00;01;03;28
Speaker 2
Good. Well, you can say that again as it’s been a packed few months. We just I was just at the insurer Tech Hartford Conference on Tuesday and talked to a lot of our friends, a lot of overlap. In fact, Scott Hawkins from Corning was there. I had a chance to sit down and talk to him. And, you know, we actually had him at our retired tech event.

00;01;03;28 – 00;01;05;27
Speaker 2
Ramsey I thought he was a great speaker.

00;01;06;00 – 00;01;32;09
Speaker 3
Yeah, no, he provided a really great industry context, right? There’s a lot of there’s a lot of movement in the industry. There is the industry is growing. We’re seeing, as he put it, changes and names at the top. And as you and I discussed before the call, there’s there’s obviously, you know, an increase of concentration as have a lot of the businesses happening at the top of the league tables.

00;01;32;14 – 00;01;35;19
Speaker 3
But the names of change and that’s pretty significant.

00;01;35;21 – 00;02;10;03
Speaker 2
Yes. So anyway, we had a great conference. We’re going to be sort of slowly rolling content out on this podcast, content that we think will resonate with agents, advisors, people who work for carriers. Scott Clearly has a message that will deliver something for just about everybody who listens to the show. And as you said, there’s a lot of change and technology is right at the heart of a lot of the change that we’re seeing in the industry today.

00;02;10;06 – 00;02;30;20
Speaker 2
And, you know, Scott does an interesting teardown of the financials to actually quantitative. We show how the technology is spending. And I think also from a very unique perspective, how the the employee base is changing as well. So I don’t know any other thoughts. Ramsay, before we run the recording.

00;02;30;21 – 00;02;44;18
Speaker 3
Well, you know, on that last point, I thought it was very interesting that that he had commented that there will be an expanding role for for knowledge workers in our in our industry. I think that’s great in a world which is threatening knowledge workers.

00;02;44;20 – 00;03;15;13
Speaker 2
So it’s it’s going to take our all our jobs away. So with that, we’ll roll the tape and listen, give us feedback and we’ll look for more content like this in the coming weeks. Thanks. Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Morning. We do it again. Good morning, everyone. There’s the energy we need, Right, Anthony? I’m Tom Buckingham. I’m the chief growth officer at Nassau Financial Group, and I’m responsible for our retail annuity and Medicare supplement businesses.

00;03;15;15 – 00;03;34;15
Speaker 2
You’ll hear from some of my counterparts today as we transition between between sessions. I want to thank Paul and Laura for setting this up and for Anthony and Mary and anyone else who’s helping out with this. And Shiva in the Capgemini team for hosting us. This is a fantastic space. I think Paul and Shiva did a great job setting up the day.

00;03;34;16 – 00;04;01;04
Speaker 2
Why the focus on retire tax? Why is it important? And looking forward to hearing dialog today around that and how we can all help solve some of the problems that were outlined? I want to welcome Scott Hawkins from Corning. Scott is a managing director and head of Insurance Research at CONNING in Hartford. He’s been there for over 15 years and he’s been a great partner in the Hartford insurance ecosystem.

00;04;01;04 – 00;04;18;18
Speaker 2
I know we have several folks down from Hartford, but without further ado, I want to I have the pleasure today of introducing him and bring him up. And he’s going to talk about the state of the annuity industry, which I think ties in. Well with the interest we’ve had so far. So let’s give Scott a warm welcome.

00;04;18;20 – 00;04;53;06
Speaker 4
Thanks, Tom. Welcome. Good morning, everyone. I also want to extend my thanks to Paul and Laura and everyone at the Nassau team for inviting me here today to speak with you. As I said, you know, I am Scott Harkins. I’m with Connie. And make sure I get the right way to go. You it again down here? Yeah, I’m just trying to.

00;04;53;07 – 00;05;15;11
Speaker 4
There we go. We’re speaking to you today about the state of the annuity industry. Now, I know that I am the only person standing between you and lunch and networking, but I do want to spend about 20 minutes talking about this topic. Leave a little room for Q&A. I want to start by asking you a question. Why should you really care about the state of the annuity industry?

00;05;15;14 – 00;05;37;08
Speaker 4
Well, if you’re an insurer, this understands the competitive landscape that you’re in business in who you’re competing against, how that’s changing the landscape. If you’re a consumer or an advisor. Annuities will likely be one of the key product solutions for guaranteeing retirement income that you will have in your tools and understanding what’s going on in the annuity industry.

00;05;37;14 – 00;05;58;25
Speaker 4
It’s going to make you a better consumer and a better advisor. And if you’re a retired tech, understanding what’s going on in the annuity industry will help you better understand the needs and wants of the customers you’re trying to sell product to. Well, let me start first with a quick commercial. Who’s counting? How many of you know who Corning is?

00;05;58;25 – 00;06;20;05
Speaker 4
Raise your hands up. Wow. That’s really impressive. We are a global asset manager. We focus on managing assets for insurance companies like PNC and Health. We have four very large annuity clients that we manage assets for. One of the ways we distinguish ourselves in the marketplace is with our insurance research. That’s the group I head up. It’s about 20 individuals.

00;06;20;05 – 00;06;42;05
Speaker 4
We provide top level strategic research on the key issues and themes that are affecting profitability. Our customers and consumers are CEOs, CIOs, CFOs. But let me start with what I’m really hearing today. I want to touch base on the five themes we see in insurance research that’s affecting the annuity industry in 2023. Starting at the top is the economy.

00;06;42;05 – 00;07;13;06
Speaker 4
It’s always the economy going clockwise. I’ll touch base on competition. What’s going on in the competition within the annuity industry. And there the key words are consolidation. Consolidate and consolidation. Then I’m going to talk about the restructuring of the annuity balance sheets, the emergence of new players and the attention that that’s drawing and the opportunities that’s creating. I’ll then touch base on the secure Acts one and two, which is, we think, going to completely transform the annuity industry over the coming decade.

00;07;13;08 – 00;07;40;25
Speaker 4
And finally, I want to touch base on technology, an area that has helped driving innovation and efficiency across the insurance industry. With the annuity industry being no different, let’s start with the economy. What you’re seeing here is the impact of inflation and the Fed’s efforts to try and combat that. You’re looking at the ten year Treasury yield. That’s the spiky little line with the rate increases up through the end of the year.

00;07;41;00 – 00;08;06;08
Speaker 4
I don’t have the one that just occurred on that. That’s likely to continue. So why is the interest rate world and interest rates such an important thing? And why isn’t this increase good for annuities? Well, annuities are essentially spread products, especially on the fixed side. Those general account assets earn a return. Part of that return gets passed on to the contract holder in the form of a crediting rate.

00;08;06;10 – 00;08;27;11
Speaker 4
Some of those crediting rates, though, have been under pressure as interest rates have decreased. So there’s been a squeeze on the spread margins enjoyed by a lot of annuity insurers. That’s put pressure on profitability. Rising interest rates are a good thing for portfolio yields and ultimately for the crediting rates that are being paid to annuity clients. Let me give you an example of how that looks.

00;08;27;14 – 00;08;55;17
Speaker 4
What you’re looking at here is something we’ve been doing accounting research since 2010. The columns that you’re looking at or the actual book yields, that’s net investment income over average general account assets for the insurance industry, life insurance industry from 2010 through 2021. 2022. Data is just coming in, as you see, that has been going down from about 4.7% to somewhere around 3.8% over this ten year period.

00;08;55;20 – 00;09;20;18
Speaker 4
That’s the squeeze on profitability. Now, you’ll see the two lines out there, something we again have been doing since 2010 is trying to forecast where portfolio yields might go. The actuaries on our team can sort of project the assets rolling off what new sales would be coming in, what interest rates might do. The orange line was the early baseline scenario that we saw in the start of 2020 when we did our forecast.

00;09;20;21 – 00;09;50;28
Speaker 4
Remember the interest rate environment in still forecasting to go down? We continue to see a decrease in portfolio yields. But what actually happened last year, those interest rates went up and last year we reforecast and you see that the blue line. Finally, portfolio yields will start to increase and improve and that’s really important for the profitability of the insurance industry, but it also affects product sales because what’s going on in the economy are interest rates going up with crediting rates.

00;09;50;29 – 00;10;16;10
Speaker 4
Is the equity market volatile? Is going up. Those will determine the types of products that consumers generally like to buy. What you’re looking at here is the direct statutory premium by product for Vas in the dark blue, indexed in the medium blue and fixed annuities in the lighter blue. And you see the Vas have been bouncing along. They were extremely strong in 2021 because that distributors were able to go back to business.

00;10;16;12 – 00;10;41;20
Speaker 4
People could emerge from COVID. The economy was recovering. The stock market was relatively strong last year, not so much glimmer reports that 2022 VA sales were off about 20%. But that, of course, follows a 16% increase the year before. Now, when you look at that decrease, that’s really partially driven by the traditional variable annuities. It does not include the increase.

00;10;41;20 – 00;11;08;03
Speaker 4
It was about 6% last year for real estate sales. They are technically categorized as a VA and on a statutory filing, that’s where you will find them. What you will see though, is the huge spike in fixed rates in fixed annuity sales, crediting rates really drove that. And I’ll give you an example of that annuity rate watch dot com January 2020 two’s average crediting rate for a five year mega was 1.94%.

00;11;08;05 – 00;11;34;15
Speaker 4
In December they reported it was 4.34%. When you have that huge increase in crediting rates, you’re going to attract people who are saying, I can go in there, get the tax deferral for the fixed annuity, I get the option for a news organization when I do retire, I’m getting a pretty good crediting rate on that. What you see on the right hand side is our forecast at conning, because we forecast these for three years of what we think sales will continue to do.

00;11;34;17 – 00;12;01;03
Speaker 4
We think VA sales will recover partially driven by our relays, but also the fact that there will be continued interest. I’ll be lower for traditional Vas if interest rates continue to be strong. Fixed annuities will be popular and indexed Annuities are still popular, but we think all relays will take some of their thunder. So I’ll switch to the second area, which is the landscape that insurers are competing in.

00;12;01;05 – 00;12;31;14
Speaker 4
As I said, it’s one of concentration and consolidation. What you’re looking at here on the left hand side is the direct premium market share for the individual annuity line for 2017 through 2021. 2020 to date is just coming out, but it doesn’t really change the picture. I’ve just started to take a look at that. What you basically see is the top 25 insurers average about 80 to 83% of all direct premium that’s generated and the top ten do average about half of all that premium.

00;12;31;20 – 00;12;56;11
Speaker 4
It’s a very, very concentrated market in terms of who the big players are. And that’s important because these big players can command distributors shelf space and I’ll touch base on that a little bit later. But even though it’s concentrated, it is not stagnant. And I think this is an important thing. Chapter understanding because it drives a lot of the reason that annuity insurers are constantly looking to improve their product and attract and retain distributors and find a new solution.

00;12;56;14 – 00;13;22;11
Speaker 4
What you’re looking at on the right are the ranking position changes for the top 25 carriers last year, 2021 and what do I mean by a position change? Well, if you were 11th and you went to third or the other way around, you’ve moved eight spots in the ranking tables over that period of time. 13 of those 25 top 25 companies in 2021 had five or more place changes in this five year period of time.

00;13;22;14 – 00;13;47;15
Speaker 4
So even though it is concentrated, that ranking changes and our analysis shows what changes, that is a lot of product appeal which ties back to the market. If crediting rates are good and you’ve got a strong fixed annuity portfolio, sales will go up and your rankings will go up. On the other hand, if you’re a VA player and people are favoring our allies or fixed, your ranking might go down unless the market increases.

00;13;47;18 – 00;14;18;13
Speaker 4
So concentrated but fluid and that fluidity is what drives a lot of product development, a lot of sales to try and always maintain or increase your rankings. When talk about consolidation, what you’re looking at here is now shifting to the distributors that are out there. This is the M&A activity by year 18 through 2022 for asset managers, insurance agencies and broker dealers, asset managers, re registered investment advisors.

00;14;18;13 – 00;14;37;26
Speaker 4
Our eyes, as you see here that’s been bouncing around has been increasing. It’s been a trend that we’ve been following and we see a couple of reasons why it’s going to likely continue. First, you have a lot of agencies and asset advisors, managers who are looking to retire. They’re my age or older and they’re looking to sell their business on.

00;14;37;29 – 00;15;00;18
Speaker 4
Second reason, the cost of doing business is going up because of the regulatory issues that you have the need to invest in technology to meet those regulatory changes as well. Streamline your business. And then finally, you have the fact that there is private equity backing a lot of what we would refer to as aggregators. Those aggregators are looking to go out and acquire a lot of small firms that are looking to sell their books of businesses.

00;15;00;20 – 00;15;20;15
Speaker 4
What does this mean? If you’re an annuity insurer, you’re competing for shelf space. You’re looking to always attract and retain that. And when there’s an acquisition, you might lose that shelf space or you might have to compete in order to maintain that because the new buyer may have a different set of of of products that they want to represent.

00;15;20;17 – 00;15;51;00
Speaker 4
So this is going on. We think it’s going to continue to go on this year and for the likely future. One reason is seen here what you’re looking at here are the number of insurance agencies on the left and the number of investment advisory firms on the right by the number of employees that work for them. You will see that in both cases, the vast majority of the distributors that are out there are small shops, five employees or less.

00;15;51;03 – 00;16;12;28
Speaker 4
There’s an awful lot of these companies out here. And remember, I mentioned they’re facing issues around the need to pay for technology. They’re thinking about retirement. That’s sort of the supply for a lot of these aggregators. Makes it a very tough business to be an advisor. Always has been, always will be for the insurance companies. So the annuity carriers.

00;16;13;00 – 00;16;36;00
Speaker 4
This also means that their wholesaling operations have to be top notch because they now have to reach a lot of small shops. They have to be really efficient at scale, means they have to establish relationships with Imo’s. They can effectively go out and manage those relationships. The technologies that they’re using are changing the nature of both. Imo’s We see the I’m most competing more on the technologies they can now offer to these small shops.

00;16;36;02 – 00;16;59;12
Speaker 4
Come join our firm, our group. You’ll get access to better technology, but also the new the insurers themselves, their wholesalers have to go out and offer this material. So M&A is going to continue because of private equity and a lot of the reasons I mentioned. But there’s an awful lot of shops and annuity insurers are going to have to continue to focus on servicing a lot of small advisory firms.

00;16;59;15 – 00;17;23;02
Speaker 4
I want to switch to the third area that is shaping and has reshaped this annuity industry, and that’s the restructuring of the annuity balance sheets that are done by the annuity insurers. For us, it’s a question of supply and demand. You see the supply on the left. Those are the insurance companies out there that have and still have large blocks of annuity liabilities on their balance sheets.

00;17;23;02 – 00;17;41;29
Speaker 4
They have those reserves. They need the assets to back those up. A lot of those are looking to remove those liabilities off their balance sheets. And they’re doing it for a couple of reasons. First, a lot of those blocks of business have crediting rates on those fixed annuities that are higher than what they’re earning on their portfolios. That margin squeeze I was referring to.

00;17;41;29 – 00;18;11;03
Speaker 4
Right. They want to get that off because of the profitability on those older bucks earnings volatility. Fixed annuities, interest rates go down. You need to increase reserves and statutory basis. You see those reserves impacting the bottom line o your VA business. Well, equity markets get volatile. Two things happen. You have to increase reserves to cover the guaranteed benefits you put in there, but also the robust hedging programs that you have in place to manage that become more expensive when markets are volatile.

00;18;11;06 – 00;18;34;02
Speaker 4
And third, insurers are looking to redeploy that capital to other areas that they might find have higher growth potential for their business or simply to return to shareholders. Now, on the demand side, you’ve seen the emergence of new insurers. Reinsurers often backed by asset management companies or private equity firms that are out there actively acquiring closed, blocked business.

00;18;34;04 – 00;18;54;28
Speaker 4
They’re also starting to write business. And I’ll talk a little bit more about these in detail in just a moment. But from our perspective, this dynamic will continue because there’s still a lot of assets out there. A lot of insurance companies are looking to redeploy capital and remove some of those. And the desire among those buyers of those liabilities still remains and it’s likely to increase.

00;18;54;28 – 00;19;17;27
Speaker 4
And by the way, we happen to think the emergence of these new carriers is actually a positive for the annuity industry because what they represent is new capital coming into the annuity space, buying liabilities and supporting growth. And we’ve looked at the need for capital to come in and support the annuity industry. It’s going to be great over the next ten years as we start to realize the benefits of the Secure Act.

00;19;17;29 – 00;19;44;09
Speaker 4
The annuity industry will need capital, it will need to attract it, and other examples of companies are doing it. So who are some of these? What you’re looking at? There are just the high level insurance restructurings since 2017, 20, 2022. You see the names here. These are multibillion dollar transfers of liabilities from an established carrier to one of these new companies coming in here.

00;19;44;11 – 00;20;06;03
Speaker 4
It is a really, really important activity. It’s reshaping the business and they are starting to really expand their business to start writing new business. In fact, if you look, I just pulled the numbers. I’m just going to look at it. But the number one company that generated direct individual annuity premium in 2022 on a statutory basis was one of these players.

00;20;06;06 – 00;20;26;09
Speaker 4
I won’t give the same away, but it starts with an A that would vary by product. I want to be very clear on that. Different products have different leaders, but overall that company was these companies are writing business and in doing so they’re also attracting the attention of regulators and consumer groups who are uncertain about what’s going on with them.

00;20;26;12 – 00;20;48;13
Speaker 4
They look at the fact that they are owned by private equity companies or asset management companies, and they’re uncertain about that relationship. And that’s attracting a lot of regulatory attention from the NRC, S.E.C. and Congress. Part of that, we think and I’ve been writing a lot about this, I’ll talk later if if you want to talk. We think part of that is the misunderstanding by groups looking at it.

00;20;48;13 – 00;21;16;29
Speaker 4
The don’t understand the reinsurance that they’re using, why they’re being offshored and how they’re structuring their business. Part of it, though, is because some of those companies are not the most transparent or opaque when it comes to being able to understand their business model and where risk lies. But here’s what’s happening with this business, with these players. As more and more of those companies were created, they started going after the same blocks of business.

00;21;17;01 – 00;21;41;18
Speaker 4
The early entrants were able to acquire those closed fixed income blocks at a really great ROI. More competition has led to higher costs and lower ROIC for those carriers. As a result, we see them already starting to move beyond looking for closed block business or writing new business. These are the five areas we think and have already seen some of these players move into variable annuities.

00;21;41;20 – 00;22;12;00
Speaker 4
There’s a lot of variable annuity liabilities out there. Last year we saw Talcott repacking some up. We also saw a venerable picking some of those up, as well as Talcott picked up some universal life from second gear, secondary guarantees, variable annuities, individual life insurance, we think will be liabilities that they’ll be looking at pension risk transfer. For those of you that don’t know, that’s when a defined benefit plan takes a block of its retirees and transfers those liabilities to an insurance company through an annuity contract.

00;22;12;02 – 00;22;31;07
Speaker 4
Some of these companies are already actively involved with this, as well as some of the large established players. Pensioners transfers will continue to go. Funding agreement backed securities had been a very hot market up until last year. We’ll see how they’ve done. But a funding agreement is a type of annuity contract sold on an institutional basis similar to a.

00;22;31;10 – 00;22;58;01
Speaker 4
Those can be packaged up into a asset backed security and sold an institutional investor. Oftentimes, those are stable value funds that end inside of for one K through playing in that space and finally purchasing credit origination platforms such as an aircraft leasing company. What you see there is companies acquiring a source of private credit, which these companies are using to increase their investment return by buying the sources of credit.

00;22;58;01 – 00;23;25;12
Speaker 4
They can fund that themselves. I want to switch now to the Secure Act and what we think will be the big market that you’re looking at here. So variations of this earlier, but this is the retirement plan assets since 2000 broken down by DC plans DB plans IRAs and that little green block are annuities. There are some annuities by the way, inside IRAs and Eisai tracks them that way.

00;23;25;14 – 00;23;45;15
Speaker 4
This is a great opportunity for insurers. Now, they’ve been playing in this space for a while, but the secure acts really open up the market for DC plans to come in here because it removes some of the hindrances around plan sponsors fiduciary concerns about putting an implant annuity. This is opening up this market, but it’s going to take time.

00;23;45;18 – 00;24;08;18
Speaker 4
The carriers have to build the networks to interface with the plan. Sponsors and the record keepers, and that goes both ways. That will take time, but will not happen overnight. But we do anticipate over the coming decade, DC plans for one K plans will become a major source of annuity growth. This is what we look at when we were looking at secure 2.0 act.

00;24;08;20 – 00;24;32;01
Speaker 4
What this really is doing is is creating a four generation opportunity for the annuity insurers, right? Traditionally, we’ve been focused a lot on baby boomers because they were the ones who been saving and now moving into retirement. Right. But with secure 2.0 and secure 1.0, that’s opening up the DC plan space for savers and Generation X millennials and soon to be Generation Z’s.

00;24;32;03 – 00;24;56;02
Speaker 4
What does this mean and why is this so important? Because think about it. The 4001k, which is the currently the bedrock for most people’s retirement savings, was never, ever designed to be a retirement income solution. It was a retirement savings solution. It became the default savings solution. And now people are trying to figure out how do I take these assets and turn it to a retirement income?

00;24;56;04 – 00;25;20;26
Speaker 4
Secure 2.0. With the introduction of any plan annuities has those get built up? Turn the 401k into a true retirement plan. People can accumulate assets and then have the accumulation built into it. When they do retire, annuity insurers will be looking at how they build that out. It opens up a new generation and makes the for one key, in our opinion, a true retirement product.

00;25;20;28 – 00;25;42;06
Speaker 4
I mentioned that annuity insurers had been involved in the for on case space, usually as record keepers or and as you see here, mutual fund companies putting plans in there. We think that, you know, this is going to continue. They’re not going to be getting rid of their mutual fund businesses. But it also starts to point out the bigger thing about the annuity industry.

00;25;42;08 – 00;26;09;28
Speaker 4
At the end of the day, large annuity players are asset managers themselves, whether they get those assets from an annuity sale for a before one k company from a pr T, it doesn’t matter. They’re all focused on gathering and managing assets. If they build out the secure 2.0 act and realize that and they increase sales of spheres to more retirees, will we see a focus shift within these companies to managing longevity risk and how are they going to do that?

00;26;10;04 – 00;26;31;26
Speaker 4
We’ve seen that in the UK since 2000. As a UK, insurers that have large blocks of annuities on their balance sheets have looked to manage longevity risk through things like longevity, reinsurance. Finally, I just want to close on the thing that I know that a lot of you are probably going to be interested about. That’s insurance technology and retired tech.

00;26;31;28 – 00;27;00;08
Speaker 4
We use insurance technology accounting because that’s an encompassing faith phrase that covers everything, that deals with any technology that touches the insurance industry. So here’s what you’re looking at here. This is the statutory amortized expenses for the life annuity industry in billions from 2008 through 2020. You see around 2013, 14, it really starts to increase. Now, here’s something that puts this number in context.

00;27;00;11 – 00;27;28;17
Speaker 4
For every dollar of reserve liabilities that were increased over this period of time, for every dollar of new business liabilities created. Insurer spent three times that on technology. They’ve been investing heavily in modernizing and transforming their back offices, their user experiences, their age and expenses. This has been across the board big companies, small companies, mutual stock. It is a big thing and hasn’t had an impact.

00;27;28;17 – 00;27;53;13
Speaker 4
That’s the question we will often get asked. Can I see how this is actually playing out on my and my income? Because I’m spending all this money in significant investments? Well, one way we look at it is to sort of say, can you see an improvement in productivity? What you’re looking at here in the dark blue is direct life annuity premium written per employee in thousands.

00;27;53;16 – 00;28;21;21
Speaker 4
The lighter blue line are the number of employees over this period of time, direct premium written has increased about 52%, while headcount has only went up about 13%. Now to us, that suggests that this technology investment is paying dividends. Insurers are able to do more business with fewer people, and the people they have are focused on doing the highly value added activities that support growth and profitability.

00;28;21;23 – 00;28;53;26
Speaker 4
So far, so good, but it’s also transformed the nature of work within the insurance industry. And you see that here 2000 to 2021. This is the change in employees by major occupational groups within the life insurance industry. Over this period of time, office and admin support occupations have seen a 20% decrease in the number of employees in those fields in the insurance industry.

00;28;53;29 – 00;29;31;20
Speaker 4
Meanwhile, computer and mathematical operations increased about 58%. Managerial skills increase as well. You’ll also notice something else. Look at the $101,530 161 $910. That’s the average salary for somebody in this industry in those fields. They’ve gotten rid of a lot of low paid employees that were doing the administrative clerical tasks. Their jobs have been automated. They’ve been replaced with very, very expensive, highly demanded expertise and skills.

00;29;31;23 – 00;29;55;27
Speaker 4
Those employees are also sought by other financial service companies. And as a result, there’s a huge warrant talent. Rackspace Technology did a survey last year. I think it was about 1400 insurance tech officers and they said the lack of available technology, talent was their number one challenge in achieving growth over the next three years. Now, we’ve had discussions with insurers.

00;29;55;27 – 00;30;21;23
Speaker 4
You know, a lot of times we’ve talked a couple of years ago, if you’re a small regional insurer outside of a large metropolitan area, it was tough to attract that talent. More recently, conversations have shown that with a work from home environment and encouragement that is coming to create some solution to this war for talent. So that’s good for those companies because they can now attract the talent they need.

00;30;21;25 – 00;30;38;04
Speaker 4
Finally, I just want to close base with what we think, and this is what we do accounting twice a year. We forecast the overall industry’s profitability and premiums. This is out of date because we’re just in the middle of doing the new one. Contact me in about two months and I will tell you what the new numbers are.

00;30;38;07 – 00;30;59;02
Speaker 4
But overall, when we look at the annuity space, here’s what we see driving the business forward. One, the demographic trends that Paul mentioned remain in place. People will continue to need to save for retirement and generate retirement income that’s driving sales. We think premium will go up. It will vary from product to product, but overall premium growth will remain positive.

00;30;59;04 – 00;31;21;22
Speaker 4
Profitability, though, is a little bit more difficult because there’s three big factors on a statutory basis that affect profitability. One is reserves. What will reserve changes do? And that’s depends upon interest rates and equity markets. What will happen as far as the need to do transfers from the separate accounts that comes into play? And finally, what will reinsurance do?

00;31;21;23 – 00;31;45;18
Speaker 4
We think reinsurance will continue, and reinsurance on a statutory basis tends to have a negative impact on overall revenue. And with that, I have to play for my compliance department the obligatory compliance slides. They’re happy now, but I’m happy to take any of your questions. I think we’ve got about 2 minutes left for 3 minutes. Otherwise I’ll talk to you at the networking appointment.

00;31;45;20 – 00;31;49;16
Speaker 4
Hey, Warren, how you doing?

00;31;49;19 – 00;32;02;05
Unknown
Heard stresses and strains of the personal financial sector on charge. Okay.

00;32;02;08 – 00;32;26;13
Speaker 4
So. So the question was. So the question was, given the recent stresses in the in the banking system that we’ve seen, how will that to what extent will that affect some of the trends and issues I’ve talked about here? The most direct impact, I think, right now, and one that I think is probably germane and many of you in this audience are thinking about as well as what’s going to be the impact on technology, especially as startup firms are unknown yet.

00;32;26;16 – 00;32;45;29
Speaker 4
I mean, at least they were made, you know, for for a CRB, they at least got their money there. But what will that do to the overall funding and capital availability for startups? You know, you look around, he’s already seen that there was some reticent over 2022 to 4 for new startups. I think that that’s the biggest issue.

00;32;46;02 – 00;33;07;28
Speaker 4
The other issue is what’s it going to do to the interest rates? Will the Fed continue to raise interest rates back off slightly? I don’t make a business of predicting what the Fed will do. I think that something beyond my pay grade. But again, if you saw interest rates drive fixed annuity sales to a great extent and also in the equity market volatility comes out will affect VA sales.

00;33;08;04 – 00;33;14;05
Speaker 4
So I think what the economy will do as a result will be a driver of sales. Stephanie, what.

00;33;14;05 – 00;33;25;20
Unknown
Do you see about the young people joining the workforce and not really saying why am I saving money for the next 60 years for my.

00;33;25;22 – 00;33;46;10
Speaker 4
The question was, what about what would we say to a young person entering the workforce today who’s trying to say, you know, why should I save for something that’s going to happen in 40, 50, 60 years down the road? What I can barely afford at my Starbucks or Peet’s Coffee, I think that is something in a way that will have to happen once they get in there.

00;33;46;10 – 00;34;12;11
Speaker 4
And some of the things in the Secure Act, I think, make that attractive. The ability to have your student loans matched as an opportunity. That’s the thing that will encourage younger savers. I think the fact that they can actually now do automatic enrollment starting in 2025 for new plans with automatic increases that will help generate sales down the road, get people thinking about it, and then simple things like on your 401k statement, how many of you noticed that actually says what your guaranteed annuity income is going to be?

00;34;12;13 – 00;34;41;03
Speaker 4
That’s put in there too, so that people will start to think this is not just a pile of money, this is my retirement income. And so it’s an educational process. I think that’s a crucial thing. But I think some of these changes from secure actor designed to try and enhance that awareness. And with that, I think my time is up, but I’m happy to talk at lunchtime or in time elsewhere on any of these.

00;34;41;06 – 00;35;04;21
Speaker 1
And with that, we’re going to take a break for lunch and networking. We’re going to welcome you all back for some eco resources, some remarks in a few minutes. But please make yourselves at home. Thank you. Thanks for listening. If you’ve enjoyed the show, please rate and recommend us on iTunes, Stitcher, Overcast, or wherever you get your podcasts, you can also get more information at that annuity show dot com.

Laura Dinan Haber190: The State Of The Annuity Market With Scott Hawkins
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Episode 189: How To Build A Market Advising 401(k) Plans with Bonnie Treichel

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With the passage of the SECURE Act 1.0 and 2.0, agents and advisors have a greater opportunity than ever before to help individuals navigate the complexities of their 401(k) plan. Today on our show, Bonnie Treichel, Chief Solutions Officer at Endeavor Retirement, discusses these opportunities and the requirements to enter this space.

Links mentioned in the show:

https://www.linkedin.com/in/bonnietreichel/

https://endeavor-retirement.com/

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Episode Transcript

The discussion is not meant to provide any legal, tax, or investment advice with respect to the purchase of an insurance product. A comprehensive evaluation of a consumer’s needs and financial situation should always occur in order to help determine if an insurance product may be appropriate for each unique situation.

Ramsey D Smith:
Hi and welcome to That Annuity Show. So today we have myself, Ramsey Smith, and Bruno Caren recording live from Atlanta, Georgia and Montreal, Quebec respectively. And our regular lead host, Paul, is out. So we’re going to see what we can do today. We’re very excited about our guest today, Bonnie Trickel, who is the founder of Endeavor Retirement. As many of you in the audience may know, certainly have talked about it a lot. I personally have the view that the opportunity in in plan for annuities is probably the largest. largest and most important asset gathering opportunity for the insurance industry in the next 10 or 15 years. And more importantly, it’s super important for American consumers and retirees. And Bonnie Treichel has been a real leader in this space. So we’re very much looking forward to chatting with her today. So with that, Bonnie, welcome to that Annuity Show. We’re happy to have you. Tell us a bit about yourself and then about Endeavor Retirement.

Bonnie Treichel:
Wonderful. Well, good morning and thank you for having me. I’m really excited to be here on the show this morning Again, my name is Bonnie Trichol. I am live from Kansas City Where I grew up before spending about 15 years on the West Coast. So I’m really excited to talk a little bit about Endeavor Retirement as well as a new law firm that we’ve launched Endeavor Law. Endeavor Retirement, you know, we were kind of talking a little bit before the show about like what is my why and Endeavor Retirement came out of this idea that really advisors needed an opportunity to have resources that for smaller RIAs who want to stay independent and they need those plug and play resources, that’s really where they can come to our firm and they can get their retirement plans to really serve their plan sponsor clients and participants in the most effective and efficient way possible and that’s why Endeavor Retirement was born. So it’s a consulting firm, we work primarily with advisors. One of the other opportunities that we’ve had is to do a lot of training and that training comes through two different partners in the industry that have been really good partners. The American Retirement Association’s division of NAPA, so the plan advisor section and that’s where we’ve created some training including about coming out soon, probably this summer, which is the retirement income certificate. So advisors will be able to sit through this online training program and then get a certificate at the end, but they’ll really learn the basics, some of which we’ll talk about today in the in-plan retirement income space. The other place that I’ve spent some time with a really good partner in the industry is Broadridge’s FI360. Again, they’ve brought together a consortium, the Retirement Income Consortium, and I’ve done a lot of work with them to that program to help create the prudent practices for selecting in-plan retirement income options. So that’s really where I get kind of my excitement for a lot of what we’re doing right now is creating that training for advisors, trying to take these complex topics, break them down, make them simple so that advisors can consume them, and most importantly, go share them with plan sponsors and participants.

Ramsey D Smith:
All right, well thank you for that. So I can’t resist, you mentioned that you also have a law firm that you just started. So tell us a little bit about the role of the law firm and then the next thing we’ll do is we’ll define in plan for the audience for whoever hasn’t focused on it yet. So first of all, tell us about the law firm.

Bonnie Treichel:
Yeah, absolutely. So we started seeing a need again, you know, all of this comes from where we’re watching the need from clients. And so we started seeing a need from some of our advisors that they needed, uh, access to legal advice for themselves, but also for their plan sponsor clients. So, uh, the law firm was again born out of the same model of how can we have cost effective resources for both advisors and their plan sponsor clients. So the model is really, uh, we make it our business to know your business and become integrated into those really help them to keep their legal costs down. And then on the plan sponsor side, really trying to make it cost effective for plan sponsors to do the right thing. So when you think of a VCP filing, for example, trying to do that in a flat fee environment to really help them effectively correct what they need to and be able to move forward. So it’s been a lot of fun starting to launch that second business and do that with partners in the industry.

Ramsey D Smith:
Well, look, that makes a lot of sense to me because what I found since I’ve gotten into this space is that there seem to be like two or three lawyers whose names keep coming up, right, in webinars, et cetera. So it’s good to know there’s some additional competition there.

Bonnie Treichel:
Competition and collaboration. You

Ramsey D Smith:
Well,

Bonnie Treichel:
know, there

Ramsey D Smith:
yeah.

Bonnie Treichel:
are some great attorneys who’ve been just awesome mentors. You know, I enjoy getting to spend time with like a Fred Rich, right? You know,

Ramsey D Smith:
Mm-hmm.

Bonnie Treichel:
I’m sure that’s one of the names you hear coming up over and over.

Ramsey D Smith:
Like 99% of the time that’s the name we hear.

Bonnie Treichel:
That’s right, that’s right. But you know, some of these are just great, great mentors that you can learn a lot from and then help deploy that to additional advisors and plan sponsors.

Ramsey D Smith:
Got it. Okay. So let’s get into it. In plan. What, what is the, what is the in plan opportunity? What are, what are, what are in plan annuities? What are we talking about here for our, for our, for sort of, for our broader audience?

Bonnie Treichel:
Yeah, good question. So, you know, for advisors, it’s funny, when I when I go out and I present, I’m getting a lot of different questions. Some people are further along on their in-plan journey than others who are starting right at the beginning start line here. And so when we think about it and take a step back, it’s like, what is in-plan annuities? Or what are these in-plan retirement income solutions compared to the retail side? And I think, you know, Ramsey, we were talking about how are we defining these solutions? So maybe I’ll take a step back and ask, I think many people are familiar with some of these options that they’re really not new. They’re just getting a lot of new buzz and a lot of new headlines, right? So many of these solutions, just, for example, like Pru’s income flex, right? That’s been around for a very long time. And there’s many others not to pick on Pru one way or the other, right? But it’s just, that’s a name that many of us are familiar with. That’s the type of solution that we’re talking about for several years. I think the question becomes, and let’s come back to this kind of in plan versus out of plan in a minute.

Ramsey D Smith:
Can I ask one question just very quickly?

Bonnie Treichel:
Yeah.

Ramsey D Smith:
Because I think this is great. When you say advisors, specifically what kind of advisors? Because sometimes it might be insurance advisors, sometimes it might be RAs, when we use that term on the show. So I wanna make sure like, what kinds of advisors, for which kinds of advisors is this discussion most relevant? Yeah.

Bonnie Treichel:
Great question. When we’re talking about in-plan retirement income solutions, this is going to be a conversation for someone who’s working with a retirement plan. So a 401k, 403b, those types of plans where you would be adding this solution in the 401k or in the 403b as opposed to selling it in the retail space after an individual has retired and come to you and said, hey, I’d like to purchase this annuity.

Ramsey D Smith:
And what licenses would they need to have? Like, what is this? Is it Series 65? Is it

Bonnie Treichel:
Ha.

Ramsey D Smith:
just an insurance license? What is with a typical? I don’t want to take this too far off track, but I just want to make sure that we want everybody in the audience to know what they need to do in order to sort of be a player in this space.

Bonnie Treichel:
Yeah, so you’re raising actually a really, really great question, which

Ramsey D Smith:
Yeah.

Bonnie Treichel:
is if I am a typical retirement plan advisor, let’s say I’m at an SEC registered firm, an RIA, and I have, for example, my Series 65, the question keeps coming up, do I need an insurance license to do this? What I will say is first, always check with your compliance department. Second, I’m not giving you legal advice, but in most

Ramsey D Smith:
Unless

Bonnie Treichel:
instances…

Ramsey D Smith:
I pay for it at Endeavor Law.

Bonnie Treichel:
That’s right. That’s right. You can pay for it and then I will. But not to the masses. So the question becomes, do you need an insurance license for most of these newer solutions? You should be evaluating that on a solution by solution basis and of course, checking with your compliance department. But what I’m seeing with most of these newer solutions coming to market is that they’re getting the insurance license at the solution level. So for example, that I’m gonna call it DCIO or wholesaler, they’re getting their insurance licenses so that the individual advisor is not required to because that individual advisor is not actually, they’re not making that recommendation of the insurance piece themselves. So again, we could go down a compliance rabbit hole,

Ramsey D Smith:
that’s

Bonnie Treichel:
but

Ramsey D Smith:
fine

Bonnie Treichel:
in general,

Ramsey D Smith:
okay but

Bonnie Treichel:
I think

Ramsey D Smith:
they do

Bonnie Treichel:
that

Ramsey D Smith:
have to be the basic issues they have to be a fiduciary

Bonnie Treichel:
Yeah, I mean, I think so well again, it depends on the role they take so I think

Ramsey D Smith:
Okay.

Bonnie Treichel:
some advisors This is a great conversation because some advisors may take an education only approach

Ramsey D Smith:
Okay?

Bonnie Treichel:
and they may just educate on Retirement income right

Ramsey D Smith:
Okay.

Bonnie Treichel:
so they might educate their plan sponsor They might educate participants and they might decide to work with Someone else in the industry who’s actually going to make that recommendation of the retirement income option now more likely is going to be the case where instead the advisor, the retirement plan advisor, is going to act as a 321, for example, fiduciary under ERISA, and they would actually make that recommendation. But I think it could go either way. So I think advisors have an opportunity to take whatever role they’d like and of course reflect that in their agreement and so forth.

Ramsey D Smith:
Okay, great, thank you. Sorry for moving it to that, but I wanted to make sure,

Bonnie Treichel:
Yeah.

Ramsey D Smith:
I wanna make sure that like, I wanna make sure that folks in the audience understand sort of what they need to pursue the opportunity. So, good.

Bonnie Treichel:
Yeah, so I mean, I think if I interject for a second, we

Ramsey D Smith:
Yeah.

Bonnie Treichel:
recap. I think the big point, if I’m a listener and I’m an advisor, it’s, this is a conversation for retirement plan advisors where on a solution by solution basis, they need to make sure they are evaluating, do they have the proper licenses? And third, checking with their compliance department and making sure they’re in line with that, because I think you’re raising a hugely important point.

Ramsey D Smith:
Okie doke. All right. And so then I had interrupted you were on a role before talking about talking about defining in plan. So if I can we can bring get back to where we left off there would love to do that. So we were defining

Bonnie Treichel:
Oh.

Ramsey D Smith:
in plan.

Bonnie Treichel:
Ramsey, I could get on a roll on this topic and talk for three hours. So you’d really have to stop me. So

Ramsey D Smith:
Okay.

Bonnie Treichel:
when we think about in-plan, I think the question is coming up again, language is important, how we define these things are important. And I think in many ways we’re not totally there yet, right? So I think I define in-plan as something where a plan sponsor is going to make that recommend, not make the recommendation, but the plan sponsor is going to make that selection, right? So there’s some sort of fiduciary oversight for having this option in the plan. I think maybe I’ll turn it over to you because I think you have a different definition of what

Ramsey D Smith:
Ha.

Bonnie Treichel:
in plan versus out of plan is. And I think it’s important because it depends on how

Ramsey D Smith:
Sure.

Bonnie Treichel:
we look at that.

Ramsey D Smith:
So for the audience’s benefit, we were having a discussion before we hit record about the definition of in plan because there are lots of different providers in the space and each of them takes a different approach. As I said at the time, I think Bonnie’s definition, strictly speaking, is probably the right one in that anything that occurs inside the plan, right, irrespective of the timing of when an annuity kicks in, either in the accumulation or decumulation period, is subject to the appropriate level of oversight that Bonnie helps people execute. As somebody who’s sort of focused on the product side and trying to see sort of broader and earlier adoption, for me, the definition of in-plan, or I should say the most effective version of in-plan in my view involves bringing in annuities during the accumulation phase accumulation phase. So anyway, that’s my differentiation. But Bruna, let’s bring you in. Bruna, what are some of your thoughts in this space? So I’m gonna remind everybody, Bruna wrote a book on this topic. So Bruna’s insight’s very important here.

Bruno Caron:
Well thanks and

Bonnie Treichel:
and be a…

Bruno Caron:
I want to go back to the income part that you did mention. When

Bonnie Treichel:
win.

Bruno Caron:
everyone retires, people can have multiple foreign case, multiple IRAs, and you brought the word fiduciary. When you’re fiduciary, technically you want to make sure that you take every single step to make sure that you’ve done the right thing. some fiduciaries to go on the very conservative side and let’s say it’s credit quality, or you’ll go at the, you know, AAA, you know, that kind of approach. When we talk about income,

Bonnie Treichel:
about income.

Bruno Caron:
retirement income, it’s all about striking that right balance. I mean, some people have a lot of pension money and, you know, recommending more income is not necessarily the right answer, but at the same time,

Bonnie Treichel:
But at

Bruno Caron:
more,

Bonnie Treichel:
the same time,

Bruno Caron:
a lot

Bonnie Treichel:
more

Bruno Caron:
of people

Bonnie Treichel:
a lot

Bruno Caron:
don’t

Bonnie Treichel:
of

Bruno Caron:
have enough income. And that’s why we have this conversation today. My question

Bonnie Treichel:
My

Bruno Caron:
is,

Bonnie Treichel:
question

Bruno Caron:
in a fiduciary

Bonnie Treichel:
is, and if you do share your…

Bruno Caron:
context, what are some of the boundaries and some of the guidelines in order to strike that right balance?

Bonnie Treichel:
Yeah, I think that’s a great question. So if I’m a retirement plan advisor and or I’m that plan sponsor and I’m making that fiduciary decision to add an in-plan option to the retirement plan, what are those fiduciary considerations? At the highest level, I think you have a consideration of when we think about the income conversation, it’s am I going to go with something that has a for my plan and its participants based on their demographics. And Bruno, you brought up a good point, right? If I’ve already got a DB plan at this company, do I need to add something with another guarantee? If I have no DB plan, like many of the companies out there today, then that’s gonna be taken into consideration. So step one is do I need a guarantee or not? Manage payout or not? Then when we go from there, then we’re going to start looking at things like if we’re going the guarantee route, this if you’re going to utilize the safe harbor, does this meet the requirements of the safe harbor? And then we go beyond that and have to look at things like balancing the cost and what are the services provided. And when I talk about services provided, those are even things as simple as like what is that employee experience or participant experience? How are they going to understand how to utilize this thing that we’re giving them? But you’re exactly right Bruno, you know, in retirement plans it’s so different than the retail space because as a whole, and we deal with this with target date funds too, right? How are we meeting the needs of this diverse population and looking at them as a whole because we still have to make one decision? So when one participant needs one thing, do we change that for the other 300? And so I think that’s what you’re getting at is like, how does that fiduciary overall look at that to then make that recommendation or determination?

Bruno Caron:
Absolutely. And, you know, one, to your point, I mean, that one employee can be there for, you know, two years in their thirties, while other employees can be there for 40 years and are now close to retirement. There’s one decision that needs to be made for everyone where, you know, these are completely different considerations and demographics and, you know, point in time in people’s lives. So the fact that, you know, those options have to be. available universally

Bonnie Treichel:
universally

Bruno Caron:
within that

Bonnie Treichel:
within

Bruno Caron:
one plan,

Bonnie Treichel:
that one plan.

Bruno Caron:
it makes it tricky

Bonnie Treichel:
It makes it

Bruno Caron:
because

Bonnie Treichel:
tricky.

Bruno Caron:
everyone has their own little story within

Bonnie Treichel:
story within.

Bruno Caron:
the plan.

Ramsey D Smith:
So, you know, it’s interesting. I think this feeds into what I think is an interesting tension in this in any place where there’s some kind of innovation, which is that, and Bonnie, to your point, like all the issues that we identify here already in some sense are paralleled in target date funds. But target date funds have been one of the most important sort of vectors for creating sort of retirement solution for millions of people, right? So I guess the… The question is, you know, how we, what do you think are, what do you think are some of the impediments to adoption here? There’s, so there’ve been some, there’ve been some recent articles, there’s an article in the Wall Street Journal about what Infidelity and State Street are doing, and there’s a lot more buzz, which I think we’re all very excited about. But, you know, what do you think, what do you think is sort of the arc of greater adoption for InPlan over the course of the next three or four years?

Bonnie Treichel:
The three big things that always come

Ramsey D Smith:
Mm-hmm.

Bonnie Treichel:
up

Ramsey D Smith:
Mm-hmm.

Bonnie Treichel:
are cost, complexity, portability. I think those

Ramsey D Smith:
Yeah.

Bonnie Treichel:
are always the three things that come up and

Ramsey D Smith:
Yeah.

Bonnie Treichel:
we can dig into those a little bit more and then where that arc goes because I think that’s the important question. But the three things that you always hear as the questions or big pushback, you can give a great presentation and talk about it, but then it’s, these are too expensive and or the question of what if someone pays for this but they don’t actually use it? to the question of, am I tied to this record keeper forever if I select this income option on this record keeper? How could I move that later if I wanna fire the record keeper, so the portability issue? And then complexity, hey, these are just really complex. And that applies both at the advisor level and the plan sponsor level. I think one of the questions from advisors that I’m getting is, hey, if I’m not making extra money on this, or how am I gonna make extra money? Like, this is a lot of work to learn all of this. So how am I getting paid to learn all this stuff? And Bruno, go back to what you said about this is, you’re a fiduciary, it’s your job to learn it, and it’s your job to know it and recommend it. But again, we have to really think about, how do we overcome those three barriers? One, I think, yes, it’s complex, but I was doing a presentation, I don’t know if you know Mike Sanders from Cap Trust, but he just had such a good quote from this presentation, which was, these are like target date funds 15 years ago. do your first one, learn as you go, and it’ll get easier over time. And I think that was so true, you know, he’s had some success with implementation of some of these solutions. And I think they are complex, but sometimes we’re making them tougher than they are. And so if we just really, you know, break it down, use some of those tools and resources that are really becoming available, it’s not as hard as it seems. So I think that’s one. The cost aspect, when you look at the cost, in plan versus the retail space or when you look at even just over time the cost of how these solutions they are getting much more affordable from what they were ten years ago. So I think you know the cost we could have a whole discussion on fees and cost but I think that is something that’s becoming much more manageable and the portability I would say when we think about that arc of success the portability is coming. So I think there’s a lot of people doing a lot of work and I’m sure both of you could could speak a lot to that but the through some of the middleware and the technology. It’s awesome to see and it’s coming. Give it, I think, eight to 12 months and you’ll really see some of that start to open up a bit more.

Ramsey D Smith:
So there had been some announcements, right? So T had joined retirement clearinghouse and then there was at least one other announcement. So, I mean, and do all these speak to sort of the increased portability capability that’s coming?

Bonnie Treichel:
Yeah, I think so, because I think as this is starting to kind of, for a long time, my belief, and I’d be curious what you guys think, it’s kind of this chicken or egg, right? So who’s

Ramsey D Smith:
Yeah.

Bonnie Treichel:
going to spend the money to start to build the bridge first? And so someone’s got to start, but who’s going to start first and who’s going to spend that money to do it? And then once it starts, everyone else will follow, but someone’s got to start. So I think those announcements, Ramsey, to your point, that’s demonstrating the start of what’s to come. You know, I think, what does that mean for the retirement plan? advisor, for those who have been saying, I don’t want to spend the time on this, I think it’s the time to say, hey, I don’t have to be ready to implement, but I have to be, and to steal something from Tameco, I have to be at least income curious. I’ve got to at least be curious enough to learn a bit to start a conversation with a plan sponsor.

Ramsey D Smith:
So in my view, maybe people are a little bit early, right? But when this moves, it’s gonna move quickly. And if one wants to be relevant the next five, six, seven or eight, nine years and continue growing their businesses, this is a skill set that’s important to, important to

Bruno Caron:
Thanks for watching!

Ramsey D Smith:
really be focused on. So now you had asked sort of our further thoughts in the space and the other announcement I think was I guess from Empower that was also talking about some things that they were looking to do. You know. The record keepers have a very important role here. They have a lot at stake. They have a hard job and it’s a business that has tight margins and they have a lot of moving parts. And so in my mind, when you start seeing record keepers speaking more openly about plans in this space, that to me sounds like a very, very good part of the fact pattern. And I know what your thoughts are on that.

Bonnie Treichel:
No, I totally agree. I think, you know, so back to the kind of the record keeper chicken or egg thing,

Ramsey D Smith:
Yeah.

Bonnie Treichel:
it’s like record keepers, they do, they have compressed margins, they’re now dealing with secure 2.0 and all the rebuilds there. When they start to pay attention and one of them is doing it, they’ve all got to follow. When you think of kind of the big three or the big five in the record keeping space, once one or two are doing it, the rest have to follow. And so I think it pushes, retirement income space. One of the things, when I first started looking into retirement income, you know, I don’t have the annuity background that both of you do. I have the fiduciary background. So when I first started looking into this space, I was like, oh, is this just kind of the industry’s like flavor of the month thing, right? Like this is the passing thing and you know, you have to learn it because it’s what everyone’s gonna talk about for six months and then we’re onto the next kind of flavor of the month sort of thing, right? The industry kind of goes through things where there’s things that pop up. the legislative and regulatory background pushing this forward. there’s no way to ignore it because it’s here to stay. Like this isn’t the kind of just like fleeting, it’ll come and go. I think there’s so many things pushing it forward and really just looking at that regulatory push that from several years back, we’ve got just so much guidance pushing it forward, as well as with Secure One and Two, you really just can’t ignore it. It demonstrates that it’s here to stay.

Bruno Caron:
And to add on top of that just the fundamental need of people literally aging in that particular demographic without the DB plans. It’s it’s poised to your point to it’s not just something we can’t ignore. It’s just it’s an opportunity for for the industry. And to to to to piggyback on on Ramsey’s point, I you know, we have to take the. the time because it’s your job. It’s not just the flavor of

Bonnie Treichel:
the

Bruno Caron:
your

Bonnie Treichel:
flavor.

Bruno Caron:
month. I like your chicken the egg analogy because you’re right, people won’t have the medal for being the first one but then everybody will have to follow. So on that note, I think you mentioned some sort of training that’s coming up. Would you like to expand a little more on that particular offering?

Bonnie Treichel:
Yeah, absolutely. You know, again, I think the American Retirement Association does a really great job about making training available for retirement plan advisors. So for example, they put out the ESGK program where folks can learn totally for free about ESG, the basics of it, how to run a prudent process. Same thing here, ARA and NAPA again, have brought together some education partners to fund the certificate program that will come out and it will be probably a three or four hour online program where folks can go in, they can learn the basics of, you know, why are we talking about retirement income? How does this apply to my business and how can I use it to, you know, attract and retain clients? And what is a prudent process? How do I run this prudent process? And the nice thing is, ARA collaborated with FI 360 on that. So the prudent practices coming from FI 360 and that group, will be brought in so that if I’m an advisor, I can really get a good understanding of what is the language, what do I need to know, and how do I actually run a prudent process as a fiduciary to be making these recommendations. So I’m really excited about that program. And I think it gives advisors a lot of free resources, like Retirement Income Consortium, they have those prudent practices available. They just released an IPS. So if you needed to make updates to your IPS for retirement income solutions, And so there’s a lot of these things becoming available that are objective third-party not pushing a product. So I’m really excited about that

Ramsey D Smith:
Can you define IPS for the broader audience?

Bonnie Treichel:
Yeah, good point investment policy statement

Ramsey D Smith:
Okay, all right. So an area that I’ve found a bit curious is the sort of the size of plans for which, this is relevant in the first order, and the second order is sort of the who serves each sort of tier of plan by size. So. For example, like for a very large plan, do RAs look with very large plans or more sort of small and mid-sized businesses? How do we think about sort of the advisor audience? Where are they typically aiming to help, help in this case companies build out their 401k plans? What’s a typical plan size?

Bonnie Treichel:
Oh, good question. You know, I think that… Retirement plan advisors and consultants who are coming from RIAs really can go all sizes of the market, right? So they might work with a billion dollar plan. They might work with a million dollar plan. In my background, I was an ERISA attorney and then I was at an RIA and that was before I started Endeavor. But when I was at the RIA, you know, I had a book of business where I had a startup plan. I had a couple of really small plans and then I had a couple that were billion dollar plans. So I think when we think about RIAs and who they’re targeting or independent advisors or any retirement plan advisor, it’s all sizes of the market. Certainly once you get up market, it’s a bit of a different kind of process, but there’s a large range of where retirement plan advisors can focus. When you think about that in the retirement income space and those recommendations, again, there’s application to all sizes of the market. I think different products and solutions fit better. different market segments depending on some of those solutions but absolutely retirement plan advisors you know it’s more about finding like what is your space and then going after that you know are you going to be in the micro market and really leverage secure and all of those opportunities or are you going to be more in that 20 to 50 million market and kind of stick stick there and be really efficient so it’s about finding your space

Ramsey D Smith:
Right, super. So is there anything else that, we’re almost out of time, is there anything else that

Bruno Caron:
Thanks for watching!

Ramsey D Smith:
you think we’ve missed Bonnie? Any other elements we wanna make sure we leave our audience with? Like look, we’d love everybody in the audience to get certified in your program and start marketing the implant opportunity over time. Are there any other things that we should be, we make sure that we leave them with?

Bonnie Treichel:
I think one thing I would just mention is that this is take the product side out of it. When we think about retirement income and in-plan retirement income options, I think sometimes the product piece is leading the conversation and not, I think going back to Bruno, a point you made. Let’s start with what is the need of the plan and its participants and then go from there to determine, okay, what is the type of solution we need and how can we meet that, as opposed to starting with the product conversation and then fitting that into the need. So when we think about this just from what is the action step from an advisor who listens today in the retirement plan space, it’s really, you know, one, just start to get educated, two, learn about the language, and three, start having some of these conversations with your plan sponsors to understand what is the need, start looking at the demographics of those plans and figure out if there’s going to be a fit in the future. But think about it from a need aspect, not a product aspect.

Ramsey D Smith:
That is such an important point and and unfortunately many of us guilty as charged you know as financial services professionals being product focused we sometimes default to that in a way that we shouldn’t so thank you for thank you for bringing that up so Bruno any any parting thoughts.

Bruno Caron:
The last thing, I love the other word you mentioned, the collaboration. And I think that we’re all, you know, if everyone’s trying to do this on their own, I think that’s going to be perceived for better, for worse as, you know, oh, you’re just trying to sell a product. But the fact that there’s association consortium and alliances that are coming together. to bring that message forward and bring it across. Final thoughts, do you care to offer some thoughts on how that collaboration took place? How much did it require to bring sometimes competitors at the same table and try to join force and collaborate?

Bonnie Treichel:
Yeah, that’s a great point. But. I do think the collaboration aspect is what’s critically important to making this happen. And one of the reasons is going back to that idea of consistent language, because if we don’t collaborate and get our head around what is the language and the industry doesn’t have consistent language, then they cannot train advisors. Advisors cannot train plan sponsors, and this will never be adopted. So it really does start with how do we get all these folks on the same page from the industry perspective to have that trickle down effect. that collaboration happen, you know, it really, from my perspective, it’s these, you know, strong leaders like Brian Graff at ARA, getting people to come together to, to put a program in place, as well as John Faustino at Broadridge FI 360, really just reaching out and explaining that same story, right? Hey, there is a need. We really have this need. How do we bridge that gap? And then showing the way, oh, we can have this, this program where everyone’s going to benefit. lift all ships. And so I think a lot of people have bought into that, that if we all come together and do it together, it’s going to have a better outcome. You know, if someone buys solution A and starts actually implementing and seeing adoption, then employer B is going to say, oh, yeah, okay, this is working. And even if they don’t select solution A, they’re still going to like it’s just going to push it forward for everyone. And that’s really what’s going to make it happen.

Ramsey D Smith:
All right, well, thank you very much. And I firmly agree with you, both of you, on the broader point that at this early stage of this particular business model. Um, we need as broader adoption. So, you know, there’s a thin line between competition and collaboration, right? Cause really what we’re trying to do is sort of change, change the overall paradigm. Well, Bonnie, thank you very much for, for spending the time with us. And I’m sure we’re going to want to have you back sometime again, soon. Uh, Bruno, always great to have you. It was great to see you and,

Bruno Caron:
Likewise.

Ramsey D Smith:
uh, and, uh, Paul and our other friends will be back. I’m sure. Uh, on. on the next episode. And so Bonnie, actually before we leave, what is the best place for people to get in contact with you? What’s the best ways to work with your law firm, with Endeavor Retirement, et cetera?

Bonnie Treichel:
Yeah, well you can always follow me on LinkedIn or on Twitter, but my email address is bonnieatendeavor-retirement.com.

Ramsey D Smith:
All right, well, thank you very much. Okay, would love to get feedback from the audience on this and any other episode that we have. We’re always constantly trying to improve and we’d love the support you’ve given us and we look forward to seeing all of you again on that Annuity Show. Take care. Let me stop this.

Laura Dinan HaberEpisode 189: How To Build A Market Advising 401(k) Plans with Bonnie Treichel
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Episode 188: Predicting the Banking Crisis Through Machine Learning With Barbara Matthews

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Returning guest Barbara Matthews, Founder and CEO of BCMStrategy, Inc joins us for a timely discussion of the public financial policy and the ability of machine learning to separate signal from noise. We cover crypto-currency intermediation, SVB, interest rates, COVID subsidies and the early insight that her machine learning model provides.

Links mentioned in the show:

https://www.linkedin.com/in/barbaracmatthews/

https://measuringpolicyvolatility.substack.com/

https://www.bcmstrategy2.com/

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Episode Transcript

The discussion is not meant to provide any legal, tax, or investment advice with respect to the purchase of an insurance product. A comprehensive evaluation of a consumer’s needs and financial situation should always occur in order to help determine if an insurance product may be appropriate for each unique situation.

Paul Tyler:

Hi, this is Paul Tyler and welcome to another episode of That Annuity Show. And Ramsey, good to see you.

Ramsey D Smith:

Always good to be back.

Paul Tyler:

Yeah, well, we had a great guest on, and I’m looking at the date, this was December 28th, 2020. I’m thinking that was the deep,

Barbara C. Matthews:

Pandemic.

Ramsey D Smith:

Is that, is that

Paul Tyler:

dark,

Ramsey D Smith:

really the last time?

Paul Tyler:

that was the last time we were in the, like, throes of the pandemic. And we were talking about… policy, monetary policy, how to read it better, how to under interpret it better, and oh this thing called machine learning and like how to take un-text and turn it unstructured data into data. That isn’t the news at all, but fast-forward to the day we actually do have incredible policy issues we’re all kind of dealing with in the financial and economic issues that we’re dealing lot of different issues today and machine learning is suddenly on the tips of everybody’s tongue. So Ramsey, do you want to do the intro and set up the discussion?

Ramsey D Smith:

Sure, first of all, I’m just blown away that it has been that long. And again, it’s another sign of sort of the pandemic time warp. I can say that as we were thinking about just what a crazy macro environment we’re in right now, Barbara Matthews, our guest, came to mind very quickly as one of the first people we wanted to talk to to help us decode everything that’s going on. So she joins us today again. So great to have you back, Barbara. founder and CEO of BCM Strategy, Inc. And we look forward to having a great conversation about any number of things that have been going on, certainly this year, and importantly, helping us sort of better understand what we’re being told. How should we interpret the messaging and the words that we’re getting? So welcome back, Barbara.

Barbara C. Matthews:

Well, thanks for having me back. You guys ask great questions and this podcast is just fabulous. I’m delighted to be back.

Ramsey D Smith:

All right, so let’s get into it. So we were ahead of the show, we were chatting a little bit about some of the many things that have been going on and one of them was really around Fed policy and bank solvency. Those are two separate issues, but obviously they’ve also been pretty closely related in recent months as well. I remember sort of as there was a lot of messaging coming out of the government handle each of those issues, trying to figure out, well, everyone’s trying to figure out what are they really going to do, and now we know. Help us understand how you looked at that whole process and what were the things you saw as things were unfolding.

Barbara C. Matthews:

Absolutely. Thanks for the opportunity. It might be helpful for your listeners to explain what we do. Because

Ramsey D Smith:

Sure.

Barbara C. Matthews:

people are accustomed to thinking about looking at any policy suite, and they expect to hear a human provide analysis, or do their equivalent of the crystal ball. And we do something very different. And so it might be helpful to level set for a moment.

Ramsey D Smith:

Absolutely.

Barbara C. Matthews:

So what my company does, we have a system have patented technology that measures the momentum and the volatility in public policy. And so our machine reads every day more than any human could in a 24 hour period in general, but then it puts a number on it and it measures it without using sentiment analysis. So we’re measuring, if you will, if you think about the old where there’s smoke, there’s fire. So we’re finding the smoke. numbers from language, that’s what the patented process does, it turns words into numbers, because we’re doing that predominantly, but not exclusively, from the official sector. It means you can also see the difference between what is going on in the media, what the journalists are reporting. We do take in, we have data mining licenses with Thomson Reuters and Dow Jones, strategic partnership with Dow Jones. 95-90% of our inputs are what policymakers are actually saying and doing, because we think what a policymaker says matters. It matters a lot. And they will tell you what they want to do and what they’re going to do. You just have to learn how to listen. And because I have been in public policy, I have trained my machine to listen for the signals hiding in plain sight. policymaker. Our machine listens like a senior policymaker. And so that’s why we are able to identify a number of signals instead of just repeating back to everyone the echo chamber of what’s happening on Twitter and in the headlines. So your question specifically was about regulatory policy, monetary policy, and I can give you some examples from our own. We started a substack podcast this year in January. I’m inspired by you guys.

Ramsey D Smith:

Tell us the name of it, please.

Barbara C. Matthews:

It’s measuring policy volatility.substack.com. So Fridays, it’s once a week. So Fridays, it’s digital currency policy. Saturdays, it’s climate finance policy. Sundays, it’s monetary policy. And we use our data, we read our data, we point out to people what our data shows you. And so what that meant was, because we started in January, January, we identified right away, I think we were the first to identify, that the new regulatory stance of the federal banking regulators was going to dramatically decrease liquidity for cryptocurrency intermediaries. They issued a big statement January 3rd, our system caught it, I podcasted about it. They said effectively, they actually said it. You

Paul Tyler:

Cue,

Barbara C. Matthews:

don’t

Paul Tyler:

cue,

Barbara C. Matthews:

actually

Paul Tyler:

cue.

Barbara C. Matthews:

have to outlaw crypto intermediation. All you have to do is say, hey, heads up, bank examiners are gonna view this as an unsafe and unsound banking practice, and that just sends a chilling environment. And then they did it again in February.

Paul Tyler:

Okay, so maybe just stop there and

Barbara C. Matthews:

Yeah.

Paul Tyler:

we’ll just make sure everybody who is listening hears this, because what you said is really significant. Disintermediation, what was the word you used? How do you describe the

Barbara C. Matthews:

Chilling effect.

Paul Tyler:

chilling effect of the cryptocurrency intermediaries? And this is interesting, what makes our currency work? I mean,

Barbara C. Matthews:

Yep.

Paul Tyler:

I should ask you, but my definition is you’ve got a central bank, I’m in here that sets monetary policy and controls lending rates, sort of makes sure a currency is stable. You don’t have that in cryptocurrency. Now effectively some of those companies were, right? Coinbase, you know, go through the list. They effectively were market makers, Barbara. Am I misinterpreting this or

Barbara C. Matthews:

No,

Paul Tyler:

would you say it better than I did?

Barbara C. Matthews:

not at all. And that’s actually a great point about the market makers. Because although most people think of the crypto space, and it’s not just crypto, it’s also stable coins that maintain a one-to-one peg with the US dollar. But these are not hermetically sealed environments. There are on-ramps and off-ramps to the US dollar, and that goes through the banking system. In addition, They actually need US dollars or some hard currency to buy the computers, to pay the people. You know, people still need some kind of hard currency to pay for food. You can’t use crypto to pay your grocery bill, your utilities bill, your mortgage or your rent. So there are on and off ramps between the crypto space and the banking system where there are US dollars. you know, our system basically set up this big alert, said, heads up, you know, it’s an unsafe and sound banking practice. We’re going to see a constraint on access to credit for a range of crypto intermediaries and market makers, like you said, like, and, you know, and sure enough,

Paul Tyler:

Yeah.

Barbara C. Matthews:

you know, Coinbase has been in the news. Not a

Paul Tyler:

Right.

Barbara C. Matthews:

surprise. They’re not the only ones, but, you know, Binance is having trouble getting their bank account. I mean, it’s an issue.

Paul Tyler:

So Ramsey is a client of mine, I’m Coinbase or competitor. Ramsey says, Paul, I wanna cash out my Bitcoin, one of my currencies, but I don’t have somebody on the other end of the transaction. I’m gonna have to borrow money to pay him, correct? And

Barbara C. Matthews:

That’s

Paul Tyler:

where do

Barbara C. Matthews:

what

Paul Tyler:

I borrow

Barbara C. Matthews:

you could, yeah.

Paul Tyler:

the money? So that’s the point where if I’m Coinbase and I want to go get money, you’re saying policy makers said, maybe charge Paul with more money. how it happened.

Barbara C. Matthews:

Yeah, well, so it was kind of banking regulation is this. It’s a lot about nudge. And there’s a whole field of economics associated with nudging. But basically, the the policymakers said was really, we’re going to view with suspicion and we’re going to think it’s an unsafe banking practice if you provide intermediation services. So that’s deposit act. Intermediation is broad. It’s deposits. You you brought up the lending use case. of some kind of a loan, you know, it’s a big deal. And then they did it again in February.

Paul Tyler:

February.

Barbara C. Matthews:

They did it again in February, the second

Paul Tyler:

So you

Barbara C. Matthews:

time.

Paul Tyler:

saw it in January, you saw it in February,

Barbara C. Matthews:

Yeah.

Paul Tyler:

and one of those blow

Barbara C. Matthews:

Yeah,

Paul Tyler:

up.

Barbara C. Matthews:

so fast forward then to March, a crypto intermediary, Silvergate, declares bankruptcy. They’re like, we can’t. We’re done. We’re done. And it’s not like the crypto industry was doing well. I mean, last year was legendary in terms of the number of implosions. And that’s when the monetary policy problem kicked in. Because when they went down, the Silicon Valley Bank And then on top of it, you know, the crypto space has been financed in large part by a lot of venture capital companies and venture capital individuals, all who banked at SVB. And they’re like, oh, we want our money. We want our deposits back. And the reality is, is that no bank can actually withstand a run period. Doesn’t really matter. I mean, it wasn’t quite a run yet. SVB was like, okay, fine. We’re going to liquidate our secure our treasury securities. because those treasury securities weren’t worth as much as they were when they originally bought them. Why were they not worth as much? Because interest rates started going up. So the value of a sovereign fixed income instrument, the value of it decreases over time when interest rates go up, because someone can buy a new bond with a higher interest rate. So the value of your old bond with low interest rate kind of goes to the… Then this is super important in the annuities business. this, of course, I don’t have to tell you that. So there’s SCB. They start liquidating their Treasury securities at a loss, but this only spooks the market more, accelerates into a full-on deposit run. And then for good measure, the FDIC closed Signature Bank at the same time, which was the other major intermediary in the crypto space. There’s a massive implosion in crypto, banking system. And then the question became, because this happened right, like two weeks before the next monetary policy meeting, the question became, will policymakers raise interest rates again in the middle of a financial stability situation? So we looked at the data. We looked at the language data. We looked at what policymakers were saying. We also looked at actual data. So this is something an analyst could do. And part of what we’re doing is we’re people how to, you know, it’s a leap for people to think of words as data, words as numbers. So we’re teaching people in Substack how to do this. And so we were like, well, look, you know, you guys, our audience is a lot of portfolio managers, a lot of advocates, portfolio managers, they’re going to do some research. I was like, oh, well, let’s see. Let’s see what the utilization rate is for that support structure that they created, the bank term funding program. Let’s look at the support structure they created to provide dollar liquidity to the international financial system. Well, utilization rates were really high. The market had calmed down. So we put the actual data together with the language data, and we told people on the Sunday, yes, the Fed is going to raise interest rates. And not just them. I mean, it was all the central banks, actually. They all did the same thing. But we used the data to tell them to say, look, you have to listen to what they’re telling you. And what they’re telling you is they want to hold firm. inflation, they’re still worried about a hot labor market. If you only looked at Twitter, if you only looked at social media, I don’t want to single out just one company, if you only looked at the headlines, the echo chamber, none of this really made it into the news. Reporters can only report so much. and illuminate a signal. Because

Ramsey D Smith:

So.

Barbara C. Matthews:

you can see it mathematically, you can see it jump, you can see the volume go up. And you’re like, oh, well, gotta pay attention to that.

Ramsey D Smith:

So where are all the various sources that you’re drawing your verbal data from?

Barbara C. Matthews:

Yes.

Ramsey D Smith:

Is it just direct policymaker language? Is it also Twitter? Is it also the mainstream media? What is the, yeah,

Barbara C. Matthews:

Great questions.

Ramsey D Smith:

where do you start with to filter down to what you think is the true signal? Because if you’re looking at everything, you’re gonna pick up some of the bias signals as well, right?

Barbara C. Matthews:

Yeah,

Ramsey D Smith:

filter this out.

Barbara C. Matthews:

exactly. Well, we start from the proposition, like I said, that what policymakers say matters, and people don’t

Ramsey D Smith:

Yeah.

Barbara C. Matthews:

hear it enough. And we are very committed to not having bias. On occasion, people do ask us to interpret or provide some normative analysis, and I resist that. I’m one of the few startups, I think, that actually turns down business, because I don’t want to corrupt the data. So we just take the language from policymakers, it’s publicly available. And I’d say that’s easily 85, 90% of our inputs. And that’s global. So every day we take a measure of what policymakers are saying around the world on the same issue. We do have data mining licenses with Thao Jones, who’s a strategic partner for us, and Thomson Reuters. And so what that means is that we’re not just generating one number. And for the quants in your portfolio managers and your listener base, what we actually generate a multivariate time series that permits the user to compare what policymakers are actually talking about with what major media is reporting. And the delta, the difference between the two, is a measure of your informational advantage when rhetoric media coverage is low, but policymaker activity is high.

Paul Tyler:

So it’s a little bit like Google Trends meets arbitrage.

Barbara C. Matthews:

I guess so. I guess

Ramsey D Smith:

I mean,

Barbara C. Matthews:

so, yeah.

Ramsey D Smith:

I guess my.

Barbara C. Matthews:

Yeah, but I don’t know exactly how they do Google Trends, so I don’t want

Ramsey D Smith:

Yeah.

Barbara C. Matthews:

to overdo

Paul Tyler:

Yeah, okay,

Barbara C. Matthews:

  1. But it’s

Paul Tyler:

okay.

Barbara C. Matthews:

a principle you get. You can compare different activity streams as it works.

Ramsey D Smith:

So my question is that, you know, how much does that delta vary over time? And

Barbara C. Matthews:

It’s

Ramsey D Smith:

do

Barbara C. Matthews:

really

Ramsey D Smith:

they ever meet?

Barbara C. Matthews:

interesting.

Ramsey D Smith:

Are they ever on top of each other? Is the delta

Barbara C. Matthews:

Yeah,

Ramsey D Smith:

ever

Barbara C. Matthews:

you know

Ramsey D Smith:

zero?

Barbara C. Matthews:

they

Ramsey D Smith:

Okay.

Barbara C. Matthews:

cross they cross I have come to the conclusion that when they when the when the lines cross We’re at an inflection point So for example if action levels are going up and they exceed rhetoric levels and it’s intuitive if you think about it But we patent we’re the first ones to do it and we patented the process to attach the numbers No one else can do it so I can tell you about it It was intuitive policymakers act and what happens next? So the dynamic, when something is really going on, action levels are gonna go up, and then it takes, depending on the issue, anywhere between a day to two weeks before the media coverage spikes. And conversely, but then there are some other patterns that are really interesting. So in digital currency, media coverage is always really high. you and persistently, I mean we’ve been generating this data since 2019, media hardly reports on central bank digital currencies. PS is a major competitor to the cryptos and they’re only just starting to get to a point where they’re actually going to compete in the market. So there’s this all this universe and we do that we do that and Ramsey I think you you’ve seen some of these charts. So The media coverage will be all over here for crypto. And in the meantime, policymakers are doing a lot of stuff to compete with cryptos by issuing, preparing to issue sovereign digital currency. And it’s like not in the news. Now, having said that, there are some crypto-specific news outlets that do a good job of covering this. But if you’re not a crypto fanatic, you have your pension and you have your annuity and you’re paying attention and you just want to know that you’re you’re and you want to engage in an intelligent way with your asset managers. You’re not going to be reading the crypto news coverage. You’re going to be reading the Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, you know. Anyway, so we’re measuring what everyone’s talking about.

Ramsey D Smith:

So then looking out sort of over the horizon a bit, right? So what are the some of the things that we should keep an eye out for? Where there’s that meaningful delta between what’s being talked about generally and kind of what we might expect? So central bank digital currencies, that’s interesting. I still remains to be seen whether or not they’ll be successful, I don’t know. But the first part is like, what’s the level of intentionality on the part of the central banks to actually try to make them successful? And then the next thing is inflation interest rates. Do you have some thoughts on any of those three?

Barbara C. Matthews:

All of the above and climate finance too, but anyway, all the above.

Ramsey D Smith:

All three, okay good. Oh,

Barbara C. Matthews:

Well, so you’re right, but all of the major reserve currencies now have very significant

Ramsey D Smith:

all right.

Barbara C. Matthews:

pilot programs underway. And they’re thinking very concretely, the ECB has promised they will have a decision in the autumn of this year about whether or not they’re going to try to issue a sovereign digital currency. I think the central banks are very serious. great job of exposing all of the faults and failings and vulnerabilities and frailties of the system. So yeah, pay attention to this because, you know, even if you’re invested in the FX market, you know, you wouldn’t price against it right now, but if you know it’s coming, there will come a moment when you’re going to want to pounce. You don’t want to miss that moment. You want to be in early enough where it’s smart but not so early that it’s, you know, risky. The monetary policy. I have taken in the podcast to putting together the language data related to financial stability and the language data related to inflation. And so right now we’re in the middle of the IMF World Bank spring meetings, G20 spring meetings. I will tell you, today’s a great week to be generating language data. I can’t exactly answer your question today because it’s only Tuesday. We’ve got a bunch more language data that has to come out. But the economic growth rates that the IMF released suggests strongly significant economic slowdowns in a lot of advanced economies. And that’s of course what the Fed wants. And what every central bank wants, they want to, ironically enough, they want to slow down the growth rates so that the pressure on prices comes down. And so I will be listening very carefully and more importantly, my system will be listening very carefully what they’re saying about whether financial stability issues or monetary, you know, the inflation rates are the driver. And then as a bonus, I’ll tell you that bank term funding program, it’s slated to end at the end of April, and the next monetary policy meeting is at the beginning of May. So I am personally, and this is just because I’m a geek, and I am at heart an analyst matter expert as well. Personally, I’m going to be watching like a hawk utilization rates. They’re published every week by the Fed. And because that’s what’s buying us financial stability. And so I will be looking at do they renew the program? Have utilization rates gone down? And then how are policymakers talking about financial stability? It’s enormously

Ramsey D Smith:

So do you think that there’s some likelihood that it will be extended? It’s just, I guess, for the audience’s

Barbara C. Matthews:

I don’t know

Ramsey D Smith:

benefit.

Barbara C. Matthews:

the short answer is I don’t know. So this is the thing about the language data.

Ramsey D Smith:

Yeah.

Barbara C. Matthews:

It’s not exactly a crystal ball.

Ramsey D Smith:

Sure.

Barbara C. Matthews:

The crystal ball comes from applying that data in machine learning artificial intelligence. We could have a really good conversation about that.

Paul Tyler:

We’re going to.

Ramsey D Smith:

Okay.

Barbara C. Matthews:

So I will tell you the narrow question about, will they raise rates or not? The last time I looked at the language data before Easter. Spoiler alert, Easter weekend, Christmas, New Year’s, not even worth it to look at it because nobody’s doing anything anyway.

Ramsey D Smith:

Yeah.

Barbara C. Matthews:

Activity levels are low. So last time I looked at it was right before New Year’s. And I was at the IMF World Bank. I’m a member of the Bretton Woods Committee. I was at the Bretton Woods Committee session on climate finance yesterday. You know, I’ve been at these events, I’ve been at these meetings foot. It does not have that vibe at all. There is, if anything, and this is just totally reading between the lines, I have the impression that so far a gentle decrease in growth rates, most economists will view that with a bit of a sigh of relief and they’ll say, okay, maybe for good measure they’ll increase one more time just to solidify the trend. and then stop. Because the mood in these meetings so far, it’s really still in the week, but the meetings so far, there’s no panic. In fact, when the IMF managing director yesterday kicked off the climate finance sessions at the Bretton Woods Committee, and this was a public session, broadcast, when she kicked it off, she ended with kind of striking note, she said, we can survive inflation. We can survive a recession. So, head of the IMF, you’d be thinking that way, is stunning to me in general. And then the third part of that was, but we cannot survive climate change, very dour.

Ramsey D Smith:

Is that how it went? It went

Barbara C. Matthews:

That’s what she

Ramsey D Smith:

A,

Barbara C. Matthews:

said,

Ramsey D Smith:

B, and then C? Wow.

Barbara C. Matthews:

A, B, and then C. And that tells

Paul Tyler:

Interesting.

Barbara C. Matthews:

you, that sequence tells you a lot too,

Ramsey D Smith:

Sure does, yeah.

Barbara C. Matthews:

And then the last part of it was to make the case for informed policies that ensure we can both survive and thrive despite a shift in the climate. I thought it was enormously interesting, not just as a rhetorical device, but for those economists, and I’m sorry to stray into the substance here, but for those economists that believe the necessarily requires higher pricing, not just higher pricing for carbon, but just higher energy prices in total because it’s not as efficient. It’s, you know, it is more expensive. It may be renewable, but it’s more expensive and it’s distribution issues are not anyway, but either way it’s gonna be more expensive. To have the head of the IMF thinking in those ways, I thought was just illuminating.

Paul Tyler:

Well, maybe we just double click on that topic because climate is one of these issues that has massive ramifications, especially with the financial services market. I put climate with ESG trends. We’ve had a lot of noise, Barbara. Read the papers, states taking on companies for investment policies, controversy back and forth. If you looked at the policy statements probably the leading question based on what you just said. Are we serious about making these… are these changes going to happen or do you see noise in the policy in terms of how we may implement some of these climate mandates, climate directives that we’ve seen coming out in the last few years?

Barbara C. Matthews:

Well, that is a leading question. Well, you know, I worked in Congress, and I worked at the Treasury Department, and I worked at the State Department. I’m gonna tell you, there’s always noise in public policy. Always, always. But you are right to ask the trend question. One of the things that I like to do is I like to see where the money goes. It’s because I’m a Treasury person, what can I tell you? Where’s the money going? You know, all of the billions, if not trillions really, in subsidies under the Inflation Reduction Act and the COVID Relief Act in Europe are, as they deploy into the economy, yes, they are inflationary. So the title of the act is a complete misnomer. But they are going to change the landscape for energy and not just energy, but consumer vehicles and really all transportation. that that is permanent. I think there’s a bigger, within finance itself, we have much harder issues that the central banks have been grappling with. This is actually where we do generate data. It’s a very niche area though. If you want to calculate the net present value of an asset, and then you want to identify your risk around changes in that value, you need to have some assumptions about the future. And this is a tremendously difficult challenge that pits finance again. Even the finance people that want to be forward-leaning here, it pits them against a lot of activists. Because the science, math-based process for estimating risk of loss… is very different from a political promise, we will decrease temperature rise. As a former policymaker, I know it’s important to be ambitious, but that’s such a, you know.

Ramsey D Smith:

ideas versus

Barbara C. Matthews:

Policymakers

Ramsey D Smith:

execution.

Barbara C. Matthews:

used

Paul Tyler:

you

Barbara C. Matthews:

to like make promises they could actually deliver on. This is a, you know, it is an ambitious thing to say and then work backwards from there. So anyway, this is going to be a jagged line. Policy is path dependent, but it is not a linear path. And we might want to talk about that another time, just because the climate issues are and even the process of disclosing to investors and the role that investment advisors have in either servicing the needs of their savers that seek to have a forward-leaning, creative positive incentive, the market for green bonds. There’s a universe in here that language. And so we measure when there’s momentum behind the language.

Ramsey D Smith:

So

Paul Tyler:

Play of… Yeah.

Ramsey D Smith:

Paul, I know you wanted to talk about chat GPT. And so I think we’re probably going to

Paul Tyler:

Yeah,

Ramsey D Smith:

do that

Paul Tyler:

we’re

Ramsey D Smith:

quickly

Paul Tyler:

probably

Ramsey D Smith:

before

Paul Tyler:

there.

Ramsey D Smith:

we run out of time. Yeah.

Barbara C. Matthews:

Yeah.

Paul Tyler:

Yeah, well, let’s open the hood

Barbara C. Matthews:

Yeah.

Paul Tyler:

a bit, and I’ll kind of set this up for machine learning. We’ve all been, it’s been around forever. I mean, forever since like the 80s. You know, it was, probably in my mind, machine learning was, gee, why do I see the orange button on the website versus the blue one? Oh, we’ve kind of trained the machine to figure out which people click more on. recommendations, product recommendations. Oh, I kinda like that. Netflix comes along, wow, that actually was a good movie. Ramsey must have watched it and it showed up in my

Barbara C. Matthews:

Thank

Paul Tyler:

feed to, oh

Barbara C. Matthews:

you.

Paul Tyler:

my God, what’s happening here? But machine learning is very basic, is about training. And I think of Google as a product, I’m trying to think what it’s called, now they’ve changed the name a couple times, but you go to a website and I wanna do a registration. Google has this great free service for me to put up This is not a bot coming in, and I have to go and check all these pictures and identify fire hydrants. Now,

Barbara C. Matthews:

Yeah.

Paul Tyler:

isn’t Google using that to basically train their driving service, Barbara? Isn’t that sort of the

Barbara C. Matthews:

Yeah,

Paul Tyler:

guts of this?

Barbara C. Matthews:

oh yeah, absolutely. And by the way, it’s not free. It’s not free. It is only free in the sense that you have not provided them cash or crypto. It’s not free. You’ve given them two things that are super valuable. One is your time and the second is your knowledge. Your knowledge. So you’re right, machine learning. Absolutely. It’s pattern recognition. It’s statistics. And so But the better the pattern recognition, which is intuitive actually. There’s a lot of very fancy language and very complicated computer architecture that does it. But at its core, it’s just pattern recognition. And it can be very personalized, so that’s the third thing that you’re giving up is your privacy. Because it’s not just Google. The, you know, you’re giving them a lot of information. The value proposition to use, you’re going to get back really good automatic recommendations. But you’re also letting them use your data in the pool for others. And so you can also see a center of gravity. The downside is if you are an outlier for whatever reason, you’re just going to be funneled into the medium and the median. You know, for some people that’s not optimal. The other issue with the training is bias, potential bias, and there’s a lot to talk about there. But when CHAT GPT kind of made a big at the start of this year, people started seeing that you could actually use it as a research assistant. I mean, that is tremendous. So it can go out and it can read everything. And this is why I said wait into this off of bias. Because you have to really know what the model was trained on. So people laugh that there are times that chat-chip-y-t will give a crazy, erroneous answer. Well, that’s not because there’s a problem with the machine necessarily. That’s because there’s a problem with the training data. It trained on the wrong thing. So it does really well, systems for over a decade have been doing really well on medical documents because medical documents don’t really have your medical research that’s not very normative it’s not very subjective it’s very science based the minute you start talking about other things that are more subjective it becomes a lot harder so ask Chad GPT to tell you about the Soviet Union depending on your political priorities and your perspective what you get back you may That’s a challenge when you think about public policy, which is very values-based. it becomes even harder. Which is why when we set out to do what we do, we deliberately did not include any normative filters at all. We are only measuring momentum. And we don’t tell, you know, we don’t tell the machine, well, this is a good thing or a bad thing. But there are people who will, they’ll use sentiment analysis to tell you, well, and then to see the challenge with training data. So there are many people who will just kind of say, okay, fine, we’re going to, policymakers say matters, so we’re gonna take sentiment and we’re gonna figure out are they feeling good, are they feeling positive, and monetary policy, are they feeling hawkish or doveish? And they kind of missed the boat, having written a lot of these speeches for myself and for various ambassadors, cabinet level people, chairmen of those committees on Congress. The formula, I love it, I love it, I love it, I love it, but I’m sorry, I’m going to do the opposite. Sentiment analysis is gonna say, oh, they loved it! Conversely, it’s a challenge, it’s a problem, there are risks, do it anyway. Sentiment analysis will tell you, oh, they’re negative on this. So we chose not to use any sentiment analysis. It’s a unique decision. Not a lot of people in the industry have taken that route. There’s a lot that we could talk about for other kinds of bias. Geolocation data, mortgage rates data.

Paul Tyler:

you

Barbara C. Matthews:

that you’ve got to be really, really, really, and then if you take the position, and many in finance do take the position, that for example, many types of mortgage lending have been biased for a long time. If you train on the market data, you’re just gonna perpetuate. And that’s the last thing about public policy that I think is really important for people to understand. The purpose of public policy is to make a change. It is to create a break in the time series to do things differently. And that’s why the signal matters. And that’s why when you’re training data in the mortgage market, you’ve got to really think about whether you want to stay with the trend, even though in finance, the trend is your friend. Sometimes it’s not going to be. And when the trend conflicts with the policy makers you’re saying, and you go with the trend, you are setting yourself up Big risks to be on the wrong side.

Paul Tyler:

Let’s see, Ramsey, how are we doing for time here?

Ramsey D Smith:

I think we’re actually over the allotted time, unfortunately.

Barbara C. Matthews:

So sorry.

Paul Tyler:

Yeah, no, Barbara, we’ve gotta talk more. A lot of questions on that topic for you, but you’ve got a very, if I were to net it out, tell me if I’m right or wrong, you’ve got a very unique set of data that has been trained by some people who really understand how to mark up or make sense of the words. And it must be unique. You must be in a unique position in the marketplace at this point.

Barbara C. Matthews:

think we’re pioneers. We’re on the innovation frontier and that’s an exciting place to be. We are what happens when policymakers understand how to use the technology. That’s how I think about it. And we don’t actually mark it up. The machine marks it up automatically. You know,

Paul Tyler:

Yeah.

Barbara C. Matthews:

there are companies who pretend they’re in AI, but what they really have is an army of graduate students in the back room marking up text. That’s not what we’re doing. Our system actually marks

Paul Tyler:

Interesting.

Ramsey D Smith:

to.

Paul Tyler:

Okay.

Barbara C. Matthews:

also ask great questions. I’m happy to come back whenever you like. And

Paul Tyler:

Thank you.

Barbara C. Matthews:

I’m a great I love your podcast. So I’m happy to listen in as well. Thanks for having me.

Paul Tyler:

Excellent. We’ll put

Ramsey D Smith:

sure.

Paul Tyler:

all the links to your show and your sub stack in the notes. Ramsey, thanks.

Ramsey D Smith:

Pleasure.

Paul Tyler:

It was great. Barbara, love to have you back and continue these discussions. So anyway, listen, give us feedback. We love it. And join us again next week for another episode of That Annuity Show. Thanks.

Barbara C. Matthews:

Thanks so much.

Laura Dinan HaberEpisode 188: Predicting the Banking Crisis Through Machine Learning With Barbara Matthews
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Episode 184: The Next Steps In FIA Index Recommendations with Branislav Nikolic and Jay Watson

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In a turbulent economic time, recommending client allocations in FIA indices has never been harder. Our friends at The Index Standard, Branislav Nikolic and Jay Watson join us today to talk about the latest iterations on their rating models.

Links mentioned in the show:

https://www.theindexstandard.com

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Episode Transcript

The discussion is not meant to provide any legal, tax, or investment advice with respect to the purchase of an insurance product. A comprehensive evaluation of a consumer’s needs and financial situation should always occur in order to help determine if an insurance product may be appropriate for each unique situation.

paul_tyler:
This is Paul Tyler, and welcome to another episode of that annuity show and I’m glad to join everybody back. I safely made it back from Toby in Egypt for a two weeks trip, and in Bruno, I didn’t tell you this before, but I actually found out there was an ancient Egyptian prince who apparently had an annuity way back

bruno_caron:
Uh,

paul_tyler:
in Mesopotamia,

bruno_caron:
uh,

paul_tyler:
and was given almost like a cup on payment every year. But You found some interesting news that we probably should have high lighted earlier around the Nobel Prize in winter. and uh, uh, One more reason why annuities should be looked at by a lot of people.

bruno_caron:
Right, well, not that much of a recent news than the Egyptians having annuities,

paul_tyler:
Yeah,

bruno_caron:
but indeed, indeed, Benbernatki, who won the Noble prize winner, not not that long ago, joined a long list of noble prize winners who at the very least have you know, push forward the concept and the implementation of annuities. So I think that’s a that. That’s another step step forward and step in the right direction.

paul_tyler:
Yeah, he, tsa, How are you Good this morning?

tisa_rabun_marshall:
I’m good this morning. I’m just slow to get off a mute in case there’s you know, some noise distractions,

paul_tyler:
All right?

tisa_rabun_marshall:
but great to be here this morning

paul_tyler:
Okay, well, Ramsey, let’s see. can you connect the dots between Nobel prize winners and Egypt, Shan, nobles, perhaps, and annuities and the topic

ramsey_d_smith:
Well,

paul_tyler:
we’re going to cover today.

ramsey_d_smith:
the only thing I can say is that that at one point my freshmen are sophomore year in college. Ben Bernanki was teaching me beginning beginning economics. I forget it was introductory macro, introductory micro, so always very very happy to see him doing well out in the world, And it’s interesting. So you mentioned that there was an. I think you just mentioned there was an Egyptian Egyptian annuity. My wife handed me in art. All about a perpetual bond owned by Yale, as it happens from Holland, that dates back to the fifteen hundreds. they’re still collecting. Literally, they’re still collecting a handful of uros every year on the back of that. So

paul_tyler:
Uh, uh,

ramsey_d_smith:
the there there a number there, a number of really phenomenal examples. But listen, The most important thing we have going on today is that we are joined by two special people from our lead sponsor. The Index standard. They’ve been our lead sponde For a year now, and for those of you listen to the show and at the beginning I believe we’ve got a. We’ve got a one minute intro. We talk about what they do is they bring clarity to the growing and inherently complex world of industies that are part of the fixindexinuities that so many people that listen to our show are probably involved in selling. So we think it’s a very important service and they are. They’re launching some some new initiative As we speak, and that’s what we’re going to talk about today. So first, I’m gonna introduce Bronislav Nicolitch, who is head of insurance at At Index Standard Brneslov recently joined from from Chanic, Let him talk a little bit about his his new role in his transition and we’re also joined by J. Watson, who is calling from London again. Yet further proof that we are an international show. Ah, and J is head of Analytic at head of Analytic at At Index Standard, and is a long standing colleague of the founder Index Standard, Lawrence Black, who is who is a great friend of the show as well, So With that Branaslove, bring us up to speed. tell us about your latest.

branislav_nikolic:
Thank you, Ramsey, it’s my absolute pleasure to be here. Actually, last time I was in the show was actually my day two or day three after joining the Index standard, So I was really fresh fresh of the boat. So yeah, as you said, like, I’ve joined Fromchanics, where I was leading research and everything that focused about retiring, complaning and anuities, and inclusion of annuities, whether it’s a retail or or in plan, and making making a shift index Standard where I really am looking into index solutions in either of the settings, But it’s insurance. It’s a annuities, index index, life insurance, and starting to look into in plan solutions, they are more and more willing to look and adopt index indexanuities, So a pleasure to be here and looking forward to our chat.

ramsey_d_smith:
J. Tell us a little bit more about yourself. Yeah,

jay_watson:
Thanks for that, my name is J. Watson. I joined the next standard just under two years ago, and prior to that, for best part of two decades, I worked in investment banking. most of that at Barkley’s capital, and most of that time was spent designing the industies that we’re talking about today, so across the different asset classes on a global basis, So based in London. That accounts for my accent, And I’ve known Lawrence for very many years. We were colleagues over the years, and I joined when Lawrence founded the Index standard. I joined him quite soon afterwards, and I’m very happy to be part of our mission, which is to help people better understand these industries and how they can work well for individuals and retires.

ramsey_d_smith:
All right, so why don’t we get into it And by the way, I neglected to acknowledge that, So Bruno is calling from Montreal, and Branaslavis is normally in Toronto. Don’t know where you are today. So Canada is also very important part of our national presence. So Bronaslav, tell us about. Tell us about this this latest initiative that that you’re undertaking with the Index standard.

branislav_nikolic:
So what we have done it in the standard and again, even before I joined. I know what what a core mission was, as Ja said to help teople understand Complex in this is better understand how the impact the insurance solutions, and more important how to impact the retail products to end up in the in the hands of moms and pomps, So what we do is kind of like multimultilayered, so just to kind of remind those who ve heard of us are kind, introduced it to those who haven’t we, For ratings and forecasts for for industies, and with our ratings, we’re trying to show how well designed or how robust. industisare and talk about there. Overall design can bring those in common language, simple to understand, and with a forecast, we are trying to rely on what we call the wisdom of Wall Street, and basically try and see how these are gonna perform Over next next little while, in other words will take, an index will do a v n analysis on it. See how it relates to the capital, malice assumptions that are coming from Um. insurance, big insurance companies, banks as managers, and see how the industries themselves would react Going forward. Now that’s all good. But the main question, the even we’ve been asked was around. How do I apply that in inanuities and we, There was a lot of work. Um, and of trying to figure out what the simplest way. what’s the way that would make sense to to to to mom and pop to my grandma That I always like to bring in in the scenario that she would understand what we are what we are talking about right. So we first wanted to put these index forecast to annuity annuity designs, and see if we can get a forecast or the annuities based on on annuity parameters that are different from different carriers, different surrender periods, and so on, Yet the forecast, or what we call Net forecast credit for for the annuities, But then soon after the question, the question really started started to be be asked is how do I know where to locate my money with inane, So we understand that these industries themselves are like many portfolios that are highly optimized to react to different market events, Um target different levels of volatility. But now that I have many of these many portfolios and many of the creating strategies with, In a new, How do I locate within the annuity and how do I word redundancies? A lot of people were saying that they are seeing either binary locations to it, say five hundred cab strategy Or if there are multiple options, they would say have five options. I split fy ways. You have three options out three ways. And what we wanted to bring some rigor is how do you? How do you do that methodically, But then still keep it. Keep it simple enough. so so so people, Or at the receiving end of this can get something. Something out of it

bruno_caron:
So if you take it, you know from from from to your point, from you your grandmother’s perspective. Now, let’s start with the first step induces. if I’m presented as a consumer between two different induces, what would be the differentiating factor between your gold rating and your neutral rating? Like, What are those those differentiating factors between those, those particular rating of those those induces.

jay_watson:
Okay, I’ll try and answer this, Bruno. The first thing to say is that our rating system is entirely analytical, Is no subjectivity. It’s objective, so we look at a very large number of different aspects of the index design its performance. It’s the way it’s desined, How many parameters it uses what underlings. It has, a very, very large number of considerations On Consideration we score. We then add up that score to get a grand total score for a particular index, and then once we’ve got that number and number out of a hundred, we compare it with all of the similar induces, So for example, the dividend index we compare with another dividend index or a multi asset index, We compare with another multiaset, a set of multi acid indusies, So we compare like with like apples with apples. So there’s an analytic score And then with that Score we compare that score with the other similar indusies, and then we produce we bucket those scores. The top ones get platinum, the next group get gold, and so on, and so on. So it’s an analytical process that takes into account a great many different aspects of the index design. And then we rate that index versus

paul_tyler:
How does

jay_watson:
it pears.

paul_tyler:
the how does time factor into your analysis and particularly my time? You know, if I plan to retire, Say twenty years from now versus ten years. Uh, one index may be gold, I would presume and please tell me this. I would think one index maybe goal, because it consistently returns a sort of narrow range of fairly good outcomes or has in the past, and we project it for Or another, one may actually produce some really incredible outcomes if you look over a period of say ten years, but if we start to narrow down that range of time and say well, Paul, you know, you might be starting to think about retirement sooner rather than later. I’m taking a little bit of a risk that I’m not going to get appear at a time where this particular industry has generated very high returns.

jay_watson:
That’s a very good question. We don’t have a crystal ball we’d love to have, but we don’t. What we’re trying to do with our index ratings is figure out which industries are well engineered and therefore more likely to do well over the long term, versus those of perhaps less well engineered that may look good in their back testing phase when they were designed, but may perform less well to the future And they go live. So that’s the first thing. It’s not a crystal ball, but it’s a A figure of measure of quality. The second thing is to say we always advocate this and it’s nothing new. Diversification Very simply, do not put all of your eggs in one basket. There are great many industries out there that I’m happy to say are very well designed these days, but even so it makes sense to diversify so there are some industries that may have a hard time in certain environments. Many industries have had a hard time in the last year, with both equities and bonds selling off a very unusual circumstance, so it’s very difficult to. It’s almost impossible to predict what’s going to happen in the future. The best thing you can do is to be diversified Now, that’s exactly the approach that we advocate in our model applications for the fixing, fixed indexed annuities. There are many now that offer multiple In This is, and at first sight, that becomes bewildering. I can imagine if I shown this to my mother, Bless her, she would say, I simply, I’ve never heard of most of these industries. Yes and yes, the Blomberg aggregate. Yes, the rest know, so people are stuck Th. they’re presented with often very good choices, but don’t have an informed viewpoint on what to do. So that’s where we aim to help.

ramsey_d_smith:
So I would just this comment that that one of the toughest things we do in the world of industies is actually really truly understand. You know, when things are redundant and not, it’s really very difficult to do without looking under the hood. One of the examples I remember from my old days was Ou know. there’s the S. P. five hundred, And then there was the five hundred value index and there was the five hundred growth index. Five hundred has five hundred ish stocks, It. but each of those industies had three hundred and some odd stocks in each. So if you added them together, it didn’t actually equal the five hundred, because there are a lot of stocks that were actually in both industies. Right So you know that’s why. Now that is precisely why know the work that you’re doing is so important. Because it’s really. It’s really hard to do that without without really being able to look under the hood. So Brontaslav wanted to get your thoughts on on Or get get your insights on on some of the tools you use. So we, we had a. We had a discussion off line where we talked a little bit about different thoughts and some of the analytical tools that are used in this in this space, Monte Carlo, being one of them. So maybe tell us a little bit about sort of the tools you use to do this work, this important work. and and maybe what, some of the pros and cons are that emerging in the intellectual debate in the financial services industry?

branislav_nikolic:
Would be glad to Hanks for that. So so I

ramsey_d_smith:
Yeah,

branislav_nikolic:
think that the ties to pulls pulls question as well into What happens if we want to retire in five years? What it will happen if you want to retire in ten fifteen? You got to have the way to test this out. So you know little framework that exists that has been In question over over last last one or two of your episode was Is Monte Carlo a good approach, and I’ll go straight to say that like all models are wrong, some are useful and there are tools that can do certain things, or tools that can not do certain things, but we waste the test. So the question that Paul asked is like What if I want to can retire in five or just ten years? I think our general approach to forecasting is that you have to take a long term view, because the capital of market assumptions Coming from investment banks or asset managers are ten year capital market assumptions. So if you do our d n analysis and an index apply capital markets assumptions to it, you get ten year forecast for an index. So it’s important to understand that this is not Co. Index will do tomorrow six months from now, two years from now. That this is a relatively long view on an index. Part of what goes into into our process is simulating the out, Basically taking the capital of market assumptions allying than with our, with our index in the d, n A. and kind of seeing what what a future holds. now, I would think that that’s appropriate and good use of simulation framework. I think more importantly is how you present your results. I think that every every and any tool is very dangerous. It could become very dangerous if you either unknowingly or got for deliberately misrepresent Results out of a two. or, or, even if you, if you as a user don’t understand, Um, So so the analogy that what? what you’re referring to, couple of episodes back was that what came out on Lee linked in was. Oh, let’s ban Monte Carlo, you, Ben Monte Carlo. Like three quarters of finance will help Um next day, and people say you, while like

ramsey_d_smith:
Hm,

branislav_nikolic:
this worked for a long time, worked in so many contexts that it’s working very well. Now there is that there’s the aspect where we say Oh advice. There’s usually use these to convey the message. Advisors misinterpret the results. And to me that’s like saying car is a bad idea because you give car to my toddler. Oh, that can be dangerous, but it’s very useful otherwise so so that’s that’s That’s where here we stand. So what we do is we take capital market assumptions from the market, what we call the wisdom of the Wall Street. We apply this to the set of analytical tools to identify Um. exposures of the industries, then simulate based on a couple of market assumptions and those exposures to get the index forecast, and the lastly, we have to what was saying, fully algorithmic way of locating within within anuitysbasically, using the results in a proper way to come up with the with starting locations for for these products,

jay_watson:
If I can just jump in here. It’s perhaps worth saying that

branislav_nikolic:
M,

jay_watson:
we’ve been producing these raw forecasts for industies for a couple of years now, and people in general very interested in them, as as a counter to simply looking backwards. It’s always interesting to look at history to have a field for things, but we try and look forward as well, and that’s what our forecast do for industries. But what we found was people who say. Yeah, Well, Great, but what’s it going to do when it’s in an index when it’s in an annuity, when it’s in a crediting strategy, and in particular people we spoke to clients, and they say, Look, I’m being presented. My clients are being presented with a choice of forty percent of the s. n P over a year or a hundred and seventy five percent participation in this bank index. I’ve never heard of How do I choose How where do I start? So what we did builds on what brands Lave explained. We took our role index forecasts, and we simulate what an index will do in a particular crediting strategy. So we take into account the participation

branislav_nikolic:
M

jay_watson:
we take into account fees. we take into account the crediting frequency, et cetera, et Cetera, All of the aspects that are required, we account for all of those on We, And a simulation out over ten years. When this goes back to Paul’s question, to try and get a field, an understanding of what a given crediting strategy might do, and the results are very striking. There’s a big variation in the results depending on the industies depending on the crediting strategies. So this is, we think this is very useful information, and it’s the basis Of these are our forecast, net forecast credits, and we use that, as Brandes pointed out, as the basis for our model applications, among those crediting strategies

paul_tyler:
Yeah, it’s

jay_watson:
in a

paul_tyler:
up.

jay_watson:
given

branislav_nikolic:
And

jay_watson:
F.

branislav_nikolic:
Ramsey,

jay_watson:
A

branislav_nikolic:
one thing,

ramsey_d_smith:
Go ahead on left.

branislav_nikolic:
Ramsey, One thing that you, you asked and I think it’s worth mentioning here is that we are the guardians of assumptions, so we believe that among us, we have enough experience and hand book know how to keep the assumptions in check, so that they are aligned perfectly, and when we get a capital market assumptions, we don’t take it from a single source. We take it from over fifty sources, and we then come up with our own that can reflect, Um. all of those. So the variation there, we try to smooth it out again when we apply it into into into our process. The other one is that we use the results of Let’s a simulations. In one step. We don’t say. Oh, this is going to be a single number. We provide distributions of results, we pick out moderate, conservative and strong, and we present all the data. So I think it’s also important to talk about what goes into the model, what comes out of the model and how Interpreted. and we, Our model location says what I referred to as an ultimate Che, Cheat on how to use a fixed indexcenuity You see that All you see how you locate, you see what industries are. You see how this is rated. You see what expected forecasted performance of the industries in the raw form ice, as well as through the through the annuity land, or of Crete strategy lands. So you have a full story to tell. How does hundred seventy five percent Partipation, Or nowadays, numbers that are like in two, three or four hundred, there are starting to sound like very odd to again, some one like my gramma. You ould say. Oh, you’ll get three times the performance of an index. Are you sure you can do that for me? Like that sounds fishy. I’ll go with a one that gives me up to a hundred percent. So all of that and mix together presented in a clear and concise way is what E are what we are advocating for. So at the end and consumer and user has has a Chan, So of a better outcome,

tisa_rabun_marshall:
A question. Congratulations on Un launching the ratings, but I have a question on design. Even behind the scenes, I sit in a marketing seat, so I imagine there’s several hours sitting in a room, brain storming and thinking through what you rolled out the decisions around are. The psychology may be around six levels versus eight or six levels versus three ratings, and sort of using medals versus some other reference to good Our best. I’m just curious. some of the discussion may have had there, and my follow up question to that is you know, how do you get the consumer who is already skeptical to pick anything other than platinum or if something moved from watch to gold? Like, how do you make them feel like? Yeah, this is actually going to you know, be beneficial to you. It’s like it’s if it’s watch. it’s always watched forever. In all ways, I’m never going to trust that it moved up. Just really curious. Some of the psychology as you thought through the ratings in and on the scale.

jay_watson:
Okay. That’s a great question. You are absolutely right. We did scratch our heads for a long time on this and we came up with our rating Platinum, gold, silver, copper, Neutral, and watch. We wanted something that immediately conveyed better or less good. We thought about lots of different possibilities. Stars. somebody suggested dollar signs. We thought that was not a good idea. What we wanted to convey was a sense of quality in a very simple way, So I don’t know whether we’ve got that right, but we’re going to stick with it. The other question you ask about. should someone only ever choose platinum? The answer that is, no, broadly speaking, the top three or four of our six categories. They’re all. They’re all good, But the platinum we think is the best, All of the platinum gold Silver. Those are all really well engineered industries, so you should be confident with any of those, and in particular those ratings they do move around through time of an index Is Platinum doesn’t necessarily stay platinum forever. We take into account in the the analysis of that score, that rating we take into account the Forecast performance of the index. Also, it’s live performance compared to its back tested performance. So as an index become live for a longer and longer, we give more weight to that live performance. If that’s good, then that will have a greater waiting. So if an index is rated silver, say it may go up. so the ratings do change not very much, their broadly sta, But they do change from month to month, But they do not lurch from platinum

ramsey_d_smith:
M.

jay_watson:
down to watch back up to gold again. there was no yo oing around. We were were confident when we designed the scoring structure that it would be stable, but it would move gently over time if I appropriate.

tisa_rabun_marshall:
Thanks,

paul_tyler:
I do think communicating potential outcomes is incredible, incredibly complicated. Love. the idea of an icon, M. now, I think of how we show ranges of outcomes today and it’s it’s difficult. I think our illustrations to you, so I think we show um, best, worst and last, and ironically, the last can actually be better than the best. The way the illustration rules work, and try to explain that to six year old consumer. Another one way we’ve we’ve looked at this, you know, brown, love, I think I’ve shared some of this work with you. We’ve looked at distribution outcomes. Now we’ve been doing this, you know, In a mirror looking backwards, and you start becatsome. Very interesting results. Some of these industies generate. You’re thinking of distribute normal distribution, cure very wide tails, Some very high peaks, So I’m sure there are many many covets, But you know all things being equal, you have an index. The goal of our of any type of guide is should be in my mind to help a sixty year old achieve safely achieve their retirement objective. Suppose we have fund A, that say shows, or projects that will generate, on average, say six percent return, And M with a standard deviation of say one or two per cent, so low, but very tight curve of outcomes, and we have almost same exact industy with averages nine percent, But the standard deviation is wider, meaning the chances of going you know lower than that more conservative fund is it could happen which which one gets the platinum, which one gets gold. Or have I just total Trashed your and walked over your model?

branislav_nikolic:
So you open, you opened two very important questions.

jay_watson:
Should I answer

branislav_nikolic:
I

jay_watson:
that,

branislav_nikolic:
think I think you should the last one, but I think you opened the very very very two very important questions. One is about the sales practices and illustration practices which we can get into you can get into, and the other one is Um, What’s what’s the preference? You started talking like means and stoundedeviations, And I did some that I in my schooling, But the key here is that My grandma doesn’t doesn’t understand a single word that you just said, So I think what what may work for for some one like her is like, Are you preferring index that’s hitting singles and doubles in baseball terms, or you’re looking for someone who is hitting home runs and which you prefer? It’s your thing. On average. they’re going to have the same number of rounds in the season to take a long term, So that’s the first thing, But the other one is that you mentioned illustration practices and impassionate about this one. It’s that I think they are. They’re kind of product of their time. If you go back to an n I cereals came about. It was like in early twenty tents, which just about two thousand eight. and I think that the last really meant to show. If two thousand eight happened, What what would the out can be? Now you? You move that rolling window away from two thousand eight, and last really becomes that you’re looking into the raging blue market hat we’ve seen. Now you’re starting To see a little bit of twenty, twenty, twenty or twenty twenty two coming in, but over all like eight out of out of those ten years are still phenomenal, so I think those are due to be to be adjusted to kind of prevent. what what I think is. It’s cheating that something that was meant to do a good thing include a widely bad outcome in those illustrations. Now in its place you are seeing the best possible thing that can happen to you. So so then and then, the third question that you asked is about How does the performance impact our rating, So I’ll go ahead and ask ask J to to give you give you the explanation there, Because that’s basically a difference between ratings and forecasts.

jay_watson:
Yeah, the answer Paul is, we do take into account our forecasts, but it’s only one of the things we look at. We’re not just looking for the index with the highest forecast. Put all your eggs in that basket. That’s not the approach we advocate. As I say, we’re trying to give an appraisal of how well engineered an index is how well how robust it is. Is it likely or less likely to do what it’s supposed to do? That’s what we’re looking for. And so to your question, Should somebody choose six percent return expected return with a vol of one and a half? By the way, that would be if you could find that index. Tell me, that’s amazing versus nine per cent with a Vol. Can’t remember what higher it depends. Is the preference. as brands said, it’s the preference of the end investor and that’s where the advisors come in in helping those end clients make a decision. Do you happy with singles? Oh, you’re happy with nothing. Nothing and then maybe the occasional home run. it’s up to the client. So our role as we see it is to try and put in front of people that information to help them make an informed choice. Help guide their own clients to what is most appropriate for

branislav_nikolic:
So

jay_watson:
those

branislav_nikolic:
is

jay_watson:
clients.

branislav_nikolic:
it fair if if I simplify it may be the other way that, if you’re look into our ratings, that will tell you that will describe the index. It would take everything that the index has to offer into consideration, and it would can tell you whether the index keeps its promise. In other words, whether the design that showed very well in design phase, or back to days carried into the future. Whether the mechanism works as described, How are the metrics coming out for for for Next mechanism? And then you combine that with a forecast, But you then can compare the forward looking view on how the index would perform, and you would say ideally you would pick like metal index, platinum, gold or silver, with a very stable return profile in the forecast, that doesn’t deviate much between conservative, moderate or strong, and then you look into even into the past, and say that now, last end Years or last twenty years, this index was returning five or six per cent. For we’re looking. we see somewhere between four and seven. That means that that’s indicative of what might might might have happened, but I think that’s that’s kind of. that’s harder to gage once you get into into the annuity and I think this is the last piece. and this. I was hoping that that was your question. Like how much you working of spending in the room, thinking about how to simplify the location with an annuity and how do you present those Results? So maybe maybe we want to talk. Talk about that for for for a second, And then do you want to want to lead it off, or do you want me just to say that again? The idea was there to make it simple. Make it. I’ll go it mic again, so there is no. there is no secret sauce in it. Everything is there. everything is disclosed and we want to give the option, especially in today’s hot higher than than what we’ve seen of our last year’s interest or environment given to F. A. There still fixed anuities. How much of above and beyond the fixed rates are these strategies bringing to the table? And should you consider the fixed rate that it’s now short history, but historically high. And what not? Do you want to maybe talk? Talk about the process for a little bit.

jay_watson:
Yeah, sure, thanks. have so again, we’re acutely aware that people are presented with a long list of choices which re going to be very difficult to understand these strange terms on unusual indusyes, strange indusies. What we do for every single crediting strategy is calculate the expected returns of that crediting strategy, So in fact, we calculate the moderate, and also conservative and a strong number, sort of weaker the expected value, and then a good scenario. We do that for each index, Each crediting strategy linked to each index. That’s the first step and it’s a big effort. So there might be five, six, there might be twenty different crediting strategies across three or five. in. She is. For each index we pick out the crediting strategy with the highest expected return. This is the selection part of the process, So for each index, look at the crediting strategy linked to it and pick the one with the highest expected return. Next step Check is that higher than the fixed rate? It jolly well ought to be, Because if it’s not higher than the fixed rate, why would you Take the risk of allocating to an index which the expected return is less than the fixed rate, So it’s less than the fixed rate. We throw it away, we discard it. We also discard an index of the best of its crediting strategies. The expected return is substantially less than the best available in that F. A. So there’s a big selection process. We try and sort out the wheat from the chaff You like. Once we made that selection, we then have two possible model applications. We propose. Both of them are fundamentally simple and both of them are based on the idea of diversification. So having made that selection in our first model, we just allocate equally to each of those selected industries. very very simple. The other model is a little bit more sophisticated. We tilt The locations according to the forecast. The expected returns are forecast for those crediting strategies. And so if the forecast, the expected return is higher, we give it more weight. If it’s less, we give it less weight. So you’re taking a little bit of a view according to the expected returns, But in both cases the selection is the same. The selection is looking to pick out for each index, the crediting strategies, which over the long Term, we think calculations show, demonstrate indicate will produce the highest returns over the long term.

bruno_caron:
Yes,

jay_watson:
Does that make

bruno_caron:
absolutely.

jay_watson:
sense? Everyone?

bruno_caron:
And it’s a very complex approach obviously to to help again to take Bronslab’s grandma and everybody else out there. Of course, you touched on diversification significantly earlier on. How is diversification achieved in the context of what you just said, Like having that algoritam picking and choosing different. You know, comparing

jay_watson:
Sure,

bruno_caron:
The the the expected return, Um. How is diversification achieved through this this process?

jay_watson:
Okay, Well, let me let me express it a different way. What we don’t do. You might be tempted if you have the for every crediting strategy of the expected return. Say Ha, there’s the highest one. Let’s put everything in that We don’t think that’s sensible. What we do is for each index we allocate where we check that the crediting the best crediting strategy for that index is not below the fixed rate or not too low. And then, if assuming that’s okay, then it gets an allocation. That’s the diversification we allocate to all of the industries where the crediting strategies are good to very good.

ramsey_d_smith:
So my comment? So Bruno? Actually? Did you have another follow one there before I jump in. Just going to say Bruno. Yes, it is it is. It is a complex process, but it’s also a a complex problem right, so industys, even simple induses have complexity, some of which I alluded to before. and then you know, many of the industries that are in in this space are even more complex because they’ve got lots of different rules and they’ve got Utility controls and lots of things like that. And so then there’s a. There’s a process valuating them at that level, And then you put them on to A and do an f. I a chasse. and suddenly you have all these right symmetries that are brought in because you’ve got you’ve got caps and things, so, I mean, I don’t know how one could actually sort of see fit to be able to optimize any of this without a very strong quantitative model, Which kind of brings us back to where we were with Ronesla earlier. Right

branislav_nikolic:
Oh,

ramsey_d_smith:
is at the end of the day you need a model, right, you need a model, and then, to the extent that you have a model, It, really, the discussion comes down to how robust are your in puts in your methodology, And so right, This whole discussion is really about like you know, you are describing the care that you put into those two critical elements to using this right. this sort of widely. Why The accepted way of evaluating evaluating the economic opportunity? So anyway, that’s that’s my. That’s

branislav_nikolic:
Oh,

paul_tyler:
Yeah,

ramsey_d_smith:
my twenty five cent summary. But did I did? I miss anything there, Bones love.

branislav_nikolic:
I think I think you get it. Get it right on and then Bruno, just to try to answer your question, Because again, I think the question that you ask like sounded simple, but I hear it as a very deep consequences. so one thing is that we try to read out redundancies in terms of strategies on the same index, because again those could be redundant. those could be all waiting. So for example, if you have an index and you have two strategies that perform the best You could say, Oh, give me half of one half of the other. You did not diversify. You just chose to different pay out structures on the same index. So that’s the first step how diversification comes into play. but we also rely on on diversification. Is that the carriers, when they are putting these in the sin like they are usually not redundant. So you, you wouldn’t have industries that are kind of carbon copy replica of one another with within the annuity, and the third one is diversity Cation. With respect to the fixed rate, a fixed rate is favorable compared to to those well performing strategies. So that kind of is kind of on a three levels of the versification that the dis offers Now, Could you could you go? Could you go deeper? Could you try to optimize? use use term that that Ramsey brought up like optimize? How can you optimize this? I think when you say optimize, people Go to mark of it. and like Moltiporfolio theory, and mean variant optimization, and the key with it a fixed in dexcnuities that allows us to be a little bit simpler to use a ittle bit more of a curistic approach. If if you want to call it is that you cannot lose money, these are principal protected product and you can really look into what’s the difference in my upside. Now you want to do this for, let’s say registered index annuities that you can lose the money. You definitely have to start measuring the downside and compare upside and downside and desk. This would kind of add you another level of the versification. Do you want to go for strategies? We can win big, but lose big occasionally, or you want go for a more stable stable return. So I think you’re asking a very deep question we’re trying to in a context of fixing eccenuities. answer it with a very simple solution. But there is a lot of lot of things that are going back on,

paul_tyler:
You know, this is a real problem,

jay_watson:
Ah,

paul_tyler:
our business that you are all solving, you know, and we’ve been a conferences. I’ve talked to Im. as we’ve talked some more top agents, and in selection is a very important issue. I think that really could benefit from. you know more support in the industry with the tools like yours. Um, I think last year You know the combination of bonds being down with stocks really heard a lot of these low vall induces, and I think the nejercoraction as I’ve heard from some agents is, I’m just going to put everything on the S and P five hundred, but that’s not the right solution for your clients. Necessarily

branislav_nikolic:
But you, sorry, I had to had to jump in you. you’re You’re saying two things you’re saying Control Industries didn’t work well last year, but going forward I’m going to put him into

paul_tyler:
Exactly.

branislav_nikolic:
how S impeded last year

paul_tyler:
I know Vranslavthere’s

branislav_nikolic:
Like these industries did a bit better than M. P,

paul_tyler:
Right

branislav_nikolic:
So

paul_tyler:
in going back. Going back to Ramsey’s point. We need structure around this

branislav_nikolic:
M,

paul_tyler:
and this is not a.

branislav_nikolic:
M,

paul_tyler:
You know, we’re not trying to time the market inside fix into exinuities. Nor should we. we need you know. J. that perspective look that encourages you know behavior that that creates outcomes that the products or designed to design to deliver. So I know we’ve got a lot more we can talk about Ramsey. Lot more more at the top of the hour. Um, you know, tis a. Do you you have any like last thoughts or comments on this topic?

tisa_rabun_marshall:
I mean, I think we all agree it’s complex, right and so I think this this rating system To de mystify it, break it down. make it simpler. So it’s interesting to hear you know some of the thoughts that went into building it, and um, I think I think it’s a step in the right direction, right to help

paul_tyler:
Yeah,

tisa_rabun_marshall:
the industry

bruno_caron:
Yeah,

tisa_rabun_marshall:
and to help the end consumer understand or make a decision in a different way,

paul_tyler:
Oh, an, I’d like to see our somer products and see the radiance you have here,

tisa_rabun_marshall:
Yeah.

paul_tyler:
Bruno, you, your last thoughts,

bruno_caron:
Well, I certainly applaud the indevor and the the initiative. I know I was in similar similar position not that long ago. and when things are going well and platinum and gold continued to be platinum and gold, you don’t necessarily get the metal. But when the boat starts rocking, then that’s when you get the tough question. So it’s It’s a tough. It’s a very difficult challenge and at the risk of stating the obvious, I know Complex environment, So yeah, I applaud the initiative well done,

paul_tyler:
Um, Ramsey,

branislav_nikolic:
Thank

paul_tyler:
bring

branislav_nikolic:
you.

paul_tyler:
us home.

ramsey_d_smith:
So

jay_watson:
Yeah,

ramsey_d_smith:
thanks again to Bronnaslav and J for being here. Hopefully, I should have pre summarized my my thoughts earlier. and so I think that your your question earlier about marketing this, and in the way it’s communicated super important. There’s everything about this. this, this challenge and opportunity is, it requires a lot of thought, everything from it, the quantitative progression to how we ate, He, and communicating it to the channel. So thanks to everybody for for another great episode, and thanks to the index standard for being such a great sponsor and friend of the show for the last year,

paul_tyler:
Yeah,

ramsey_d_smith:
Yeah.

paul_tyler:
hey, thank you all and

jay_watson:
It’s a pleasure,

paul_tyler:
once again thank

jay_watson:
thank

paul_tyler:
our

jay_watson:
you.

paul_tyler:
listeners. Listen. send us feed back. Call us. I get text. I get calls. I know everyone else does, and give us your opinions

bruno_caron:
M.

paul_tyler:
and we. we’ll continue this. the discussion, this topic. I think it’s really important for our business

bruno_caron:
M.

paul_tyler:
and join us kin next week for another episode of that annuity show.

Laura Dinan HaberEpisode 184: The Next Steps In FIA Index Recommendations with Branislav Nikolic and Jay Watson
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Episode 187: Making Sense Of The State Of The Economy With David Czerniecki

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Volatility seems to be the word of the day. Volatility in fuel prices. Volatility in the market. And of course, volatility in interest rates. David Czerniecki, the Chief Investment Officer of Nassau Financial Group joins our show today. He discusses current events and explains the difference in risk profiles between banks and insurance companies.

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Episode Transcript

The discussion is not meant to provide any legal, tax, or investment advice with respect to the purchase of an insurance product. A comprehensive evaluation of a consumer’s needs and financial situation should always occur in order to help determine if an insurance product may be appropriate for each unique situation.

paul_tyler:
Hi, this is Paul Tyler, and today I’d like to welcome David Zernicki, the Chief Investment Officer of NASA Financial Group to our show. Today is our quarterly review of the state of the economy. David, welcome.

david:
Thanks Paul, good to be here.

paul_tyler:
Yeah, thanks for making time. I know your time is precious these days. And the state of the economy is in quite a state.

david:
Mm-hmm. That’s indeed.

paul_tyler:
Now, the CPI, which we’ve been watching intensely, we’ve had a lot of conversations about over the last year or so. CPI finally looks like the inflation may be slowing. So do you think the Fed is finally winning the war or starting to win the war against inflation with all the rate hikes.

david:
We do, Paul. They are making progress, as we’ve stated in the past. It takes time for the rate-hiking mechanism to flow through to the real economy. The Fed’s tools are powerful but blunt, and so the rise in rates is having a dampening effect. I think there are a couple things going on. One is that, again, continued improvement in the supply chain, trade activity, and the you know, all the port jams are, you know, cleared. Things of that nature has helped, particularly on the good side. So we’ve seen progress there. Services costs are still up, and labor costs are still up, which is, we would expect, because labor tends to be more sticky. If I give you a raise, Paul, you’re not going to give it back when CPI comes down, which is why I didn’t give you a raise when you asked for one last week. But, no, seriously though, Paul. You know, so it does tend bit more sticky and the mechanism tends to be a little bit slower. The other thing is increases in rates will tend to slow economic activity and I’m sure we’re going to talk about that today, but slow down in economic activity will reduce demand for things and that too is disinflationary. So you are seeing traction. We don’t know when we’ll sort of get back to that 2% percent target but we are moving in that direction.

paul_tyler:
Yeah, well, this is good news.

david:
Thank you.

paul_tyler:
We’ve also had conversations in the past about how rising fuel prices works its way into almost every commodity we buy. Now, good news is that I’m driving past freeways on the Merit and 84, the numbers are going down. Now, how long does it take typically, or do you think it will take for those lower fuel prices to work its way through, you know, shipping cost of goods and things coming in from other countries.

david:
Sure. So, again, I think similar to the broader inflation context, it does take a while. One of the things that economists look at, in particular the Fed, is what they call core inflation, or core PCE, personal consumption expenditures. That’s their favorite number. And what that factors out is food and energy. Now, if, you know, for most working Americans, them so they haven’t the Fed tell you we’re factoring that out. You might as well factor out A or two, right? But the reason they do that is because the pricing mechanisms there are much quicker. So energy prices as we’ve all seen swing around week to week and pretty volatily at times. But what’s really happening? You’re starting to see inflation come down a bit. You are seeing some slowing in economic activity. And so less inflation. Reducing commodity prices, especially oil. And so therefore, you see that at the pump rapidly or more quickly, it’s transmitted. But also, slowing economic activity reduces demand for oil. And that’s what you’re starting to see pricing a little bit here, is people’s forward expectations of how much oil we’ll need for, not just to fill our cars, but to make plastics to build things, as we’ve talked about. somehow or other petrochemicals is everywhere and the less demand for goods and services, you know, the less demand there is for oil and so you’re starting to see that play through. I think you’ll continue to see volatility in oil. Geopolitical factors of course have been a big player there, independent of inflation and that’s not gone away, okay? But you are seeing slower economic forecasts both domestically abroad, particularly in China, which is a consumer of oil because they’re big manufacturing platform. So you are seeing it start to play through and I think that generally the trend will continue. Although I don’t think we’re going to see $10 oil anytime soon.

paul_tyler:
Yeah, let’s hope not.

david:
Right.

paul_tyler:
You use the word volatility a couple of times. Now, one thing that’s been exceptionally volatile over the last few months have been interest rates, short-term rates,

david:
Bye.

paul_tyler:
long-term rates. How do we make sense out of what’s happening with interest rates?

david:
A number of factors play into rates and we could spend a long time on all of these things, but let me just hit a few highlights. It’s clearly the level of rates, particularly in the short end, is set by institutions such as the Fed, the ECB, the Bank of China, etc., etc. So you’re seeing some of the volatility just coming from their actions. The longer term rate tends to be set by the market and the market will be putting into that. You’re factoring in. about where we’re headed from an inflation perspective. So to give a very simple example, if the market believes that the Fed is getting inflation under control, you would expect the longer end of the curve to come down because we’re not worried about the purchasing power of our paycheck 10 years down the line. And so you start to see rates come down. If we think the Fed doesn’t have it under control, you’ll see rates go up a lot. But other factors that play into rates are, outlook on GDP and economy. Well, the Fed is the, If that is raising rates right now to fight inflation, will they start cutting rates to fight a recession? So that’s a place. And now clearly from the past couple of weeks, a lot more economic uncertainty leads to a lot more volatility. If you take the view that we’re headed into recession and I take the view that we’re going to achieve self-lending, guess what? We have a market because you and I don’t agree on what the level of rates should be. And so we’re willing to trade around that. If your position is extreme, which it might be right now. are nervous and my position is you know adamant and firm you’re gonna have a lot more vol as we you and I try to trade so you’ll see that the other thing is and is is rates also reflect risk not just prices and so what you’re seeing is risk has dramatically repriced in the last couple of weeks that people have become more concerned about financial institutions about the general state of Again, if we go into a, let’s say a deep and prolonged recession, we’re not calling for that, but let’s just say that with a case. You wanna be compensated as an investor a lot higher to cover you for that. And so your expectation or our rates in return just changed dramatically.

paul_tyler:
You mentioned financial institutions, David, so you open the door here.

david:
Yeah.

paul_tyler:
It’s hard to have a conversation these days without talking about some of the bank’s in the news. Now, to what extent do you think bank failures reflect more in the state of the technology industry versus, say, a rise in interest rates?

david:
Um I, it is a little tough to parse, but, and usually there are some catalysts to some of these problems and challenges, and I think it’s easy to somewhat extrapolate and say, look, what happened in Silicon Valley Bank was unique to the tech space, it was an odd confluence of factors, it was an odd network, Paul, if I’m running a giant, giant, well-known venture capital fund, and I have lots of companies that I’m invested with, not to mention the network of folks that I’ve known in that industry for years because I’ve invested with the previous generation and the previous generation and the previous generation of tech companies. And I am worried about deposits at Silicon Valley Bank. I’m not just calling up the bank and saying, send me my money. I’m calling every one of my counterparts, constituents, my portfolio companies and saying, get your money out. So you can see how in that scenario, that network, that fabric of that space reacted very rapidly and very extremely to a concern. It’s a little bit of the thing of yelling fire in the movie theater. There we go. Okay. Okay. Okay. Okay. Okay. Okay. Okay. Okay. Okay. Okay. Okay. Okay. Okay. So there is an element of that, but I do think that is somewhat unique to Silicon Valley Bank. What that sparked is a general level of concern around mismatches of assets and liabilities in other smaller, I wouldn’t say poorly capitalized banks, but maybe not super well capitalized banks. The, you know, the Jagundo banks in our country, right, the big money center global banks are very living wills and they have significant restrictions on what they can and cannot do. They are monitored very, very closely, but we have thousands of banks in the country. It’s hard to monitor all of them very, very closely. And so Silicon Valley banks problems spook the market. Banking is a confidence game. People may forget, but we have what’s called fractional banking in this country. When you put $100 in the bank, They’re only keeping a few bucks around to give back to you on a given day because they’re putting that money to work in loans and Securities and things like that so that they can pay you an interest rate And so it’s not all there on any one day And I think what you’ve seen is a bit of a spooking of that It has largely been centered or focused on regional and smaller banks, but as you’re well aware we read the papers and Other issues of confidence have hit some of the bigger banks, not in the US, but international banks as well. Not just about fractional reserve banking and about mismatches of assets and liabilities, but other business issues have had an impact in the way folks have reacted in the sector.

paul_tyler:
Yeah, and I guess if you think about banks and insurance companies, some similarities, a lot of differences.

david:
future.

paul_tyler:
What is the difference in risk profile today of a bank and an insurance company? Maybe it’s a balance sheet comparison. I mean, what’s the best way to put these sectors in relative

david:
Yeah, no, that’s

paul_tyler:
comparison?

david:
a good question, Paul, because I think there’s a natural tendency to, you know, we are all in the financial services industry, you know, and we know that. And we do similar things, you know, a bank takes deposits and it makes loans, a traditional bank, an insurance company, you know, takes in premium and invests it in order to, you know, and we’re both doing the same thing. We’re providing a return to that investor, that depositor over time. So there’s that thematically. There’s that similarity. But, but insurance and banking is very different in other respects. You know, insurance companies generally speaking aren’t designed to be liquidity providers per se. Again, we go back to the example you put your $100 in the bank on Friday, on next Monday you decide you want to, you know, get lunch and you go take your $100 out and you expect them to give it to you. When you deposit, you know, when you purchase an insurance policy, an annuity or a life policy, you that you’ve signed up for a period of time before you can access that $100. It’s a little bit more like buying a CD, let’s say, right? And so we then turn around and invest that money along the lines of what we’ve promised to pay. So the asset and liability, so the liability is what we owe to you. Our assets are what we invest in in order to meet that obligation. The liability and the asset well matched with banking. Some of it is matched, but also there’s a lot of guesswork as to whether or not you’re going to show up on Monday because you need cash for your turkey sandwich. And so you get these disconnects, and so it can happen more rapidly in banking. Insurers have controls over that. We have surrender agreements, and we have contractual agreements with policyholders, And part of the way we’re able to do that is because we have more certainty around when we need to return that money. If I have to have your money there in the bank every day for you because I don’t know when you’re going to want your jerky sandwich, I can’t invest it the same way as we can as an insurance company. If you promise me I can have it for a year, we invest that $100 different.

paul_tyler:
Yeah. Well, listen, very interesting. Yeah, time, you know, time is valuable. And I think it sounds like the structure of the insurance policies in some way give us a little more buffer from those sudden runs that, you know, banks may be exposed to, which is should be reassuring for our policyholders. Well, David, listen, thank you so much for your time today. This is great. And listen, we’ll look forward to having you back again in another few months and hopefully we’ll have the Federal Reserve in our banking system will have navigated these rapids successfully. So thanks so much, David.

david:
You’re welcome, Paul. Thank you.

Nick DesrocherEpisode 187: Making Sense Of The State Of The Economy With David Czerniecki
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Episode 186: Simplifying Market Exposure and FIA Indices with Josh Mellberg

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Sometimes very basic questions can be hard to answer when it comes to annuities. One example – How much exposure does a specific vol-controlled index actually have to the market? Josh Mellberg joins us today to show how to use simple match to estimate relative exposure across different indices at one given point in time. The question may become more common as clients looks for ways to make up for declines in 2022.

Links mentioned in the show:

White Paper View only Linkhttps://www.canva.com/design/DAFb7vQeOtI/VF-N4Ox6DW9zlLJqhGFXdA/view?utm_content=DAFb7vQeOtI&utm_campaign=designshare&utm_medium=link2&utm_source=sharebutton

Risk Control Calculator: https://forms.zohopublic.com/secureinvestmentmanagement/form/RiskControlTool/formperma/bxij_AEky1gQM6kvYHzz1BtXOQAk-1XrOO2tmQ0y72I

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Episode Transcript

The discussion is not meant to provide any legal, tax, or investment advice with respect to the purchase of an insurance product. A comprehensive evaluation of a consumer’s needs and financial situation should always occur in order to help determine if an insurance product may be appropriate for each unique situation.

mark:
Thank you.

paul_tyler:
Hi, this is Paul Tyler and welcome to another episode of that annuity show. Ramsay, how are you this morning?

ramsey_d_smith:
I’m good, always happy to be here.

paul_tyler:
Good. Hey, looking forward to our innovation retirement event we’ve got cooking in New York on Monday. Can’t wait for your panel.

ramsey_d_smith:
Absolutely. One of the topics we’ll be talking about today, dovetails nicely with what we’ll be talking about on Mondays. This is great.

paul_tyler:
This is great. And Mark, wonderful to have you back.

mark:
Thanks Paul, it’s great to be back. It’s been a while and I’m glad to be back on the program.

paul_tyler:
Yeah, yeah, no, and you’ll be introducing a panel as well in New York, so looking forward to it on the, what’s the role of the advisors, right, going forward? How do we help them? How do we help clients get advice? So thanks for doing that. And we’ve got a great guest, returning guest, somebody we’ve done for a long time. Mark, do you wanna do the intros? I’m Mark Lerner, and I’m a CEO of the company.

mark:
Yeah, sure, I’m perfect timing in terms of the role of the advisor in the ever-changing world in terms of the marketplace. And it’s great to have Josh on. I’ve known Josh for over 10 years. Josh, I think you started your business back in 2006. And you’ve always had an incredible passion for education and marketing. And you’ve done a phenomenal job in terms of your outreach through infomercials and advertisements. I think you’ve reached over 14 million households over the years, primarily educating on the you know, guarantees of income in retirement and not guarantees and the benefits of annuities. And now you’re taking a different look at it in terms of the various indices and crediting strategies that are out there. And obviously the ball control strategies have come into play over the last several years, a big byproduct of low interest rates. And you see a concern in the marketplace in terms of understanding that. So I know you’re working on a white paper around this and you put together a really cool tool slash app, if you will. that I think does a great job in terms of really breaking it down to the fundamentals and giving the basics behind it. So without, why don’t you tell us a little bit about when this became a concern from your perspective in terms of the need for education and how you feel this approach is best suited in terms of reaching the, not only agent but end consumer.

joshua_mellberg:
You know, Mark, it’s never been better to be in this annuity environment that we’ve been in today. For almost 15 years, rates have been very low. And annuities provide protected growth, or they can provide income for life. And these insurance companies have gotten more and more innovative because interest rates have been so low for such a long time. And they’ve been trying to figure out how to get more return for the client or for the policyholder. And that’s where they created these amazing risk controls. What’s happened in this last year as interest rates spikes short term rates and longer term rates with the innovative products, it’s just put a lot more juice for the client’s potential for them to make some money or generate more income with this innovation of the products out there today.

mark:
And have you seen a shift in terms of, I guess, utilization? I mean, I guess if you look back three or four years, there was very high concentration in folks electing the volatility control structures and the

joshua_mellberg:
Mm-hmm.

mark:
bespoke indices. And again, you’re going to big buy product of the low rate environment and the impact on option budgets. And now with option budgets, you know, much higher than they were, participation rates caps on standardized indices higher. Now they’re starting to look at, you know, the full platform. This is where, I think, becomes important to really kind of understand, you know, what par rates are relative to each other in these different types of indices, and how to really best explain that in terms of the participation that you’re actually getting in that underlying credit behind the scenes.

joshua_mellberg:
Yeah, well over a decade ago it was pretty simple. You know, you get a cap of 10% or a monthly cap of 3%. And a lot of these companies, if they didn’t have a cap, maybe you get a percentage of the S&P 500 on a monthly average or annual point-to-point or so on. Now that these rates have increased, what the insurance carrier does is they take the interest rate and they take that rate by calls or they buy options on major indexes such as the S&P 500 NASDAQ or the innovative indexes that you guys make. The rates have and the risk controls, if it’s a one-year maturity date, the insurance company can get a certain amount of percentage, but if they go two years or three years out on a percentage, they can get more purchasing power or juice on the options, which allows the policy holder to get a lot more crediting rate. because for about 15 years, there’s only so much water you could squeeze out of that rock, and it’s really hard to get a client a rate that beats inflation. And so that’s where clients are looking at these more and more, because if you look at just last year, bonds were down close to 20%. S&P was down close to 20%. And inflation was almost double digits. is getting hit in three different ways. And that’s why people are trying to beat inflation safely. And that’s why these products have never been better.

ramsey_d_smith:
So one of the things that’s happened in the last, I’ll call it at this point, yeah, it’s almost 10 years since the first one of these came out and just full disclosure, this is a business that I ran in my prior life at one of the investment banks. One of the things that’s happened though is there’s been a proliferation of lots of different choices. And so how should people think about choosing, even within a single platform, there may be multiple different types that are offered. I mean, how can you help, how do you help your clients or the people that you advise to think about either allocating between those various indices or choosing one or the other?

joshua_mellberg:
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Well, I think financial advisors and policyholders are trying to put their arms around how much is my contract going to make. How do I measure that? Well, what has to happen for them to get a good return? And obviously, the policyholder has options. They can put their money in the fixed bucket yielding 4% to 5%, depending what company you choose. They can choose an S&P 500 option that has no cap and a lot of the competitive rates out there are 50 to 70% participation rates. But then they have those innovative risk controls. And there are several hundred risk controls out there today. And how do you know which ones are good terms and how do you know which ones are not good terms? Because I remember back in 2007 when I actually had some clients in the index annuities, but they had monthly caps at the time. And I had a fairly upset client. And because I kind of said, well, you get market index upside, but you don’t have the downside. And I think that year they made five or 6% interest on their policy, but the market was up almost 20%. So there was a disconnect on what the client thought they were going to make and what the policy actually credited. And that became a pretty fast learning curve to say, well, how can I manage the client’s expectations? Because this is supposed to compete with savings vehicles. necessarily could be supposed to compete with investments. And so as these risk controls became more and more innovative, now you’re seeing participation rates at 100%, 200%, 300% or higher, and what 300% of what? And so what we did with our CFA is we kind of broke down a kind of a chart to help financial professionals understand what is your equity exposure? What is your participation rate in? of that is working for you today. And for those of you who can see the screen, I’ll share it with you. But one of the indexes that these are shared with is geared towards the VIX. The VIX is known as the Volatility, is a Volatility Control Index. It’s also known as the Fear Index. And you probably see this on CNBC You’ve heard about this in the past. But essentially, the VIX determines what the cost of an option is on the S&P 500 or US markets. The average VIX historically has been close to 16 and 1 half. And it changes. It changes depending if fear is high, if the VIX can spike, if fear is low, the VIX can drop. And you can see a little bit of the history of the VIX, but back in 2018, the VIX was the lowest 12. Just a few days ago, it hit as high as 31 recently. Why is that important? Well, if you were to purchase a call in the S&P 500 for, say, it’s a $100 call option at the price of $20, and then a month later, the VIX is at $30, and you bought that same call option, you would need almost 50% more dollars to buy the contract for if it was a VIX, it was at 30. And I share that with you because these vol controls you typically see, they’re issued in vol control fives, vol control sixes, vol control eights, vol control tens. And some of them go as high as 16 and 1 half. And why is that important? Well, if you take a look at a vol control

ramsey_d_smith:
Can I ask you to actually just to clarify

joshua_mellberg:
five,

ramsey_d_smith:
one thing? When you say a vol control five, seven, 10, because not every been in our audience may understand that. What you’re saying is that’s, that is the lower the number, the more strict the vol control is, and the higher the number is, the more wide the vol control is. Is that correct? Yeah.

joshua_mellberg:
That’s a good way of saying it. I’d also look at it from this way. The lower the vol control number, the less equity exposure you have. So the lower percentage that’s working for you today. So if the market goes up by 1%, the lower amount of your dollars are in equities, and maybe more money’s in cash or bonds, if you can look at it that way. So in this white paper here, this kind of shows an example where if you had a S&P 500 risk control five, which you can actually get those indexes and buy the vault controls on the S&P 500 if you chose to. But the Vault 5 and the VIXBIN at 20 today, that tells me five goes into 20, what percentage? Five goes into 20 is 25%. So that tells me you have 25% equity exposure with the VIXBIN 20

mark:
And

joshua_mellberg:
today.

mark:
Josh, I don’t know if you’re looking to have the white paper on the screen. It’s not currently on the screen. It’s still the volcadral indices.

joshua_mellberg:
Okay, let me show the white paper here. Maybe you can see it now.

mark:
Yes.

joshua_mellberg:
Yep. So essentially, what doesn’t change is the vol 5, or the vol 6, or vol 8. What does change is the VIX. So just probably about a week ago, when the banks were crashing, the VIX was as high as 30. So if you had a vol till it control 5 at 100% participation rate, 5 goes into 30 about 17%. So that means you would have 17% equity exposure if you bought that vol till it control directly. The reason I share that with you, And Paul, is that a lot of these indexes are giving 200% participation rates. So if the VIX is at 20 like it is today and you have a vol total to control 5, which only has a 25% equity exposure, your participation rate at 200% is really 50% equity exposure. So all that means is if the S&P 500 goes up by 1%, your equity exposure for that day was half percent, 50 percent of that. Does that make sense?

mark:
It does. In a sense, it’s a way of looking at it where 100% isn’t always 100% relative to the other variable factors that go into it. I guess one analogy to look at it from a different perspective is like on an income rider. You have roll-up rates and you’ve got payout factors. Just because you might have a higher roll-up rate does not necessarily mean the income’s going to be higher. It also depends on what that payout factor is to get to that net number. So you need to look at a couple different points of reference to really understand what your opportunity is in terms of getting a credit, correct? So I’m going to go ahead and do a quick quick review of what I’m going to be doing next. I’m going to be doing a quick review of what I’m going to be doing next. So you need to look at a couple different points of reference to really understand what your opportunity is in terms of getting a credit, correct? So I’m going to go ahead and do a quick review of what I’m going to be doing next. So I’m going to go ahead and do a quick review of what I’m going to be doing next. So I’m going to go ahead and do a quick review of what I’m

joshua_mellberg:
Exactly, exactly. So if we take another example here, if you had a risk control 10 on the index that you choose and 10 goes into 20 is 50 percent, well, in that example here, if you had a 200 percent participation rate and you had a risk control 10 and the VIX is at 20 today, you would actually have 100 percent equity exposure. So if the S&P, as an example, went up by 1 percent, you would also go up by 1 percent. like it did in 2018, and you had a risk control 10 at a 200% participation rate, your index account, your index would go up by 1%, you’d go grow by 166% for that day. So what’s great about this is the higher the risk control, think of it the more equity exposure potential you have. such as risk control five or six, then you need a much higher participation rate to have the same equity exposure. So if you looked at the chart below here, if you wanna have 100% participation rate of the equity, of the S&P to 500 a day, and you have a vol five, you need a 400% participation rate on that vol five to have it, the market goes up by one, you make 1%.

paul_tyler:
Y a-

joshua_mellberg:
But if you had a vol controls 10, If the market went up by 1%, you’d only need a 200% participation rate out of all control 10.

paul_tyler:
Yeah, I like Josh how this connects the dots. I think too often people look at the products we offer and you look at, to Mark’s point, you look at roll-up rates or you look at participation rates. Volatility controls have added sort of another element and I think it’s tough to sometimes put those together. Now, you spend a lot of time, as Mark said, connecting with 14 million households. Where are their heads right now? Now, bonds went down last year as did equity. We know it’s like, I think the third time in the last hundred years where that happened.

joshua_mellberg:
I mean.

paul_tyler:
But if I open up my 401k and I saw that my account went down 20%, this is interesting, right? Simple math. Gosh, how much does my account have to grow to get back to where I was? Oh, 25%. You know, is volatility, are volatility controls now something that less is better in this environment or are they going to say please in this whole crazy marketplace take some of their risk off the table.

joshua_mellberg:
Yeah, there’s a lot of the consumer right now is scared. They took a big hit. Those people that were prudent and diversified, they took a big hit in their bond funds, and streets went up, bonds went down. The stock funds went down, and inflation’s going up. So what’s helped them keep up with inflation a little bit is their houses prices for last year. Their house prices went up. This year, housing is expected to go down. And we don’t know what the market’s going to do. It’s going to kind of stuck in the muck and very volatile. because they feel inflation or shrinkflation, things are getting much more expensive, but they don’t want to lose their money. So they’re seeing losses as inflation goes up, and they don’t know who to trust. If you look at the banks, a lot of people are pulling their money out of the banks. What’s nice to say is not one insurance company with a fixed annuity or indexed annuity has ever lost principal. That’s what, not even when insurance companies went under, no one’s ever lost it. a dime. Policy holders always got their money out. So right now people are trying to get, try to protect their assets and how do you do that and how do you fight inflation safely. And even though my go rates are really great, they’re 5%, that’s not keeping up with inflation after taxes.

mark:
So I think one really important thing in terms of the innovation behind this, and we’ve talked about this on previous shows, and I know Paul and Ramsey have talked about it too, is that people tend to kind of fall waves, right? So when the income writers first

joshua_mellberg:
Thank

mark:
came

joshua_mellberg:
you.

mark:
out, you saw huge utilization, 80%, 90% utilization, and the timing made sense because it was after 2007, 2008, 2009 when those really became and people were scared. And they’re making decisions in terms of, they’re a long-term protection based on that. And then the market started doing really well, and then you saw people dialing back in terms of the utilization of that, thinking, hey, this is great, do I need to spend the money for a rider fee when I can make more of my credit rates and do systematic withdrawals? And then you get a little shake up of the market

joshua_mellberg:
Mm-hmm.

mark:
and you start to see these trends shift. And I think, looking at that analogy on the income riders, I think the same holds true on these crediting strategies. You know, back when interest rates were low, these came out optically, you know, those par rates were much higher, and you saw people really move towards that, and now you’re seeing a move back. I think the key here is that there’s not one that’s good or bad, you know, it’s really diversification in different market environments, and it’s having a portfolio that allows really the benefit of picking and choosing different opportunities in different market environments, because it’s not like you’re making a selection today that’s really only gonna impact based on today’s market. These are long-term programs for people’s retirement. And I think the more options, the better. And obviously, what you’re doing to educate, hey, I’m not saying one’s right, one’s wrong, but here’s how you got to look at the differential to balance it out and figure out which ones make sense for which part of your portfolio. So, I’m going to go ahead and do a quick recap. I’m going to go ahead and do a quick recap. I’m going to go ahead and do a quick recap.

joshua_mellberg:
Mark, this is why more than ever it makes sense for advisors to become fiduciaries and understand what indexes are the best ones to choose from. And I think that’s critical knowing how to pick which indexes are across the board. I’ll kind of walk you through a cool calculator we made, if you can see the screen. Basically how do you know which? number is right for you. Different companies are going to have different numbers. They can have a five or six or an eight or a 10. They go as high as 16 and a half. But if you put in the risk control number, 90% of the risk control vols are fives. You can just typically, it says vol five right next to it or on the index you choose. And then you can look up what the VIX is. You can by clicking this link, it’s 21.6 today. So I’ll just type in 21.6. And then what is the participation rate you’re getting? So some of these companies are paying 200, 300% participation rate. I’ll just put 200% in there. And what this shows is it shows what your approximate equity exposure today or participation rate on a vol five with the VIX being at 21. Well, today it would be at 23.15, but because you’re gonna 200% participation rate, your equity exposure is closer 3. But if you wanted 100% equity exposure, you would need to have a 431% participation rate. So if the S&P went up by 1%, you would also gain 1% for today. And so I share that with you because this kind of compares what you would need if you had a risk control 10, what would your estimated equity exposure be, or participation rate, which would be 46%. 100% equity exposure on a risk control then, what would you need? And if you had a risk control 16 and 1 half, and there’s a couple carriers that have higher risk controls like 10 or 16 and 1 half, then you would have 76% equity exposure on a risk control 16 and 1 half. But if you had 200% participation rate, it would be much higher than that. It’d be closer to 150% participation rate. So this just kind of points out that when choose indexes and vol controls, make sure you have if you have a low risk control, make sure it has a very high participation rate, or it’s okay to have a much lower participation rate if you have a higher vol control. The reason this is important, Mark and Paul, is I don’t think financial advisors and consumers really understand how much the money is growing today or what’s going to make over the year. How do you calculate that? It’s easy to calculate if you have a 50% participation

ramsey_d_smith:
Mm.

joshua_mellberg:
rate on the S&P 500, you make 10, that’s easy. But it’s not easy to see behind the scenes if the market goes way up how much of that gain did you make when the market rips.

mark:
Yeah, and obviously I think there’s other factors too in terms of like the volatility itself and how quickly that moves, what type of… you know, either a crediting period or a longer duration. And that’s why it’s important to obviously, number one, have the choices, right? And then number two, to be able

joshua_mellberg:
Thank you.

mark:
to monitor

joshua_mellberg:
Thank you.

mark:
it, you know, as you go looking at each term when it comes up for maturity and saying, okay, well, let’s maybe adjust based on where we either think the market’s going or experiences that we’ve had based on, you know, the allocations that were made prior to. So, I think that’s a good point. I think that’s a good point. I think that’s a good point.

paul_tyler:
So I’m curious, if Ramsay’s presenting this to me, Josh, when does he optimize for higher exposure and when does he optimize for lower? What’s, you know, if I’m the client, what would dictate going up or down? So, I’m curious, if Ramsay’s presenting this to me, Josh, when does he optimize for higher exposure and when does he optimize for lower? What’s, you know, if I’m the client, what would dictate going up or down?

joshua_mellberg:
Well, I think most advisors and most clients just say, oh, wow, I get 300% of the gains of that index. And they’re like, that’s pretty good. How is that possible? That’s what they think. It sounds too good to be true. And a 300% participation rate or 400% participation rate is not too good to be true because the vol control is very low. It’s in a way, it’s marking things up to mark things down, call the sale. So how do you know how much money is working for you in the market in a way? That’s kind of how I try to simplify it. It’s really simple. You can see the fixed bucket at 4% or 5%, or you can see the S&P 500 at 50% participation rate. You can measure that. But how do you measure how much money is really going up for you? And I think you have to look at what the VIX is at for the day or for the average for the year. And you got to look at your participation rate with the vol number. You have to have all three calculations to be able to say, do I have a shot of making 20% if the market really goes up? high ball toe to control, like a 16 and a half, you really do have a good shot of making double digits. But if you have a very low ball control and the VIX is high average for the year, then I think there’s going to be disappointment when the market rips by 20% and client statements come in at 5 and 6. But here again, if you look back in 2018, there was times where the VIX was only around 12, and this risk control 5s did really, well. So I just think we’re gonna have elevated volatility ever since the pandemic and it’s gonna be like that for the next couple years with all the things going on with inflation.

mark:
Ram’s here on mute.

ramsey_d_smith:
You got me now?

mark:
Yep.

ramsey_d_smith:
Sorry about that. It’s saying,

joshua_mellberg:
Yep, we can hear you.

ramsey_d_smith:
look, there’s a lot of really good and important science behind these volatility controlled indices. And to your point, Josh, essentially what dealers and asset managers do with these is they translate what would have been a participation rate or what

joshua_mellberg:
Thank

ramsey_d_smith:
would

joshua_mellberg:
you.

ramsey_d_smith:
have been a cap, they translated that into an asset allocation policy between a risky asset, i.e. equities, asset bonds, right? And for a, a, a, a, a vol control five, the relationship is going to be a lot more bonds, relatively speaking than stocks and for a risk control 16, it’s going to be the other way around. And so, you know, when it ends up being presented to the end consumer and they’re told they get, you know, a multiple percentage, like 300% of the, of all control index, we’re really what’s happening is to your point, that can be done because the index underlying index is less risky because less of the index is assets are allocated into the risky asset. So I think that having a tool that helps both advisors and their clients understand directionally what these things mean I think is super important. Because the underlying engineering, if you will, is really like it’s fairly complicated. But I think if people have that top line from a 1,000 foot understanding of what it means to have low vol, expensive, exposure versus high ball exposure, I think is important. And that gets people a long way to where they need to go to make a good decision.

mark:
Thank you.

joshua_mellberg:
Yeah, Ramsey, you hit the nail on the head. A lot of agents are looking at the illustrations and they’re backtesting. And they’re backtesting the hypotheticals and they’re backtesting on when volatilita is much lower. And so I guess the question would be is if you had a 25% participation rate on the S&P 500, would you go to a client and ask them if you’re going to average 8% per year and tell them they’re going to average 8% per year? I think the answer would be, most advisors would be no, you’re not going to average 8% with a 25% participation rate. And I think that a lot of the agents are looking at just the backtesting in a bull market when the market went straight up and when volatility was very low. And that’s not really fair to say what’s going to happen forecasting, what’s going to happen in the future, because volatility is much higher, rates are a lot higher, and the lower vol controls can do very well, but you have to have a 300% or 400% participation rate to really. compared to a volatile control 16 and a half or so.

paul_tyler:
So.

mark:
So it’s interesting. We have a really interesting dynamic on this podcast here today because Josh, you’re looking at from the standpoint of helping educate agents, advisors, consumers in terms of how these all play together. And Ramsey, you’ve developed one of the very first, if not the first ones of these strategies. So I guess a question from your perspective is Josh talks about the education behind it in terms of how they interplay with each other has the way these unfolded worked out the way that you anticipated initially when you designed. And then secondly is the behavior patterns along the lines of what you thought might happen in terms of the way that they’ve drawn attraction.

ramsey_d_smith:
Wow, so there’s a lot in that question. So first and foremost, one was this idea that in a low rate environment, you did wanna give people different ways to make money. For us, one of the most important things was to be able to take institutionally available investment strategies. So strategies that were only available institutions that we had developed at my prior firm and actually being to deliver them in an FIA and using that in a vol control context as something to provide another way to get exposure, like diversified exposure beyond just the S&P. So there was that piece of it for sure. I think to say beyond that what’s been amazing to me is how many of the indices there are now. So the first index was in 2012. Trader Vic with an insurance company whose name I won’t mention. And it was probably about three or four years until a lot of other ones started to come out and then it just took off. So now I think the interesting challenge is to give consumers and advisors some simpler decoder rings, if you will, to figure out how to make some decisions. Because the reality is, if you line up industries next to each other. As somebody who’s in the business, sometimes industries, indices all feel very different to me. One versus the other. But there are some big commonalities that I think people should focus on. So for example, sort of, the control levels and again the par rates they translate into I think are very important for people to understand. So they see it as a choice. It’s not magic, it’s just math, right? It’s really, it’s math. And so you want to give advisors and customers some Some good rules of thumb to help them with the math But having to get sort of deep into the science and I think that I think that tools that help you view that are you know are valuable

paul_tyler:
Yeah,

ramsey_d_smith:
Did I

paul_tyler:
I

ramsey_d_smith:
answer your group your question?

mark:
Yeah, no, very much so. Appreciate

ramsey_d_smith:
All right,

mark:
it.

ramsey_d_smith:
cool.

paul_tyler:
Yeah, Josh, I think bottom line what your tool does is allow advisors to have better conversations with clients and better inform them and set expectations that have a higher likelihood of showing up on a statement. And I don’t think we can

joshua_mellberg:
Thank

paul_tyler:
overestimate

joshua_mellberg:
you.

paul_tyler:
this. Mark, we get calls all the time from clients who’ve forgotten that they put money into a two-year strategy and they say, well, why don’t I see a zero return a year one. Well, let me remind

joshua_mellberg:
Mm-hmm.

paul_tyler:
you what a two-year, how a two-year strategy works. I don’t think we can underestimate the need to make these conversations as clear as possible in the beginning. So, Josh, tell us what’s next. We’ll certainly share your, we’ll share a link to your white paper, Mark. I think that’ll pass muster. I think what’s next this year? This is gonna become a valuable tool for advisors to use.

joshua_mellberg:
Yeah, if you download the white paper, it’ll kind of give an example of the history of the VIX. It will show what kind of rates you need to be equal to 100% equity exposure. And there’s a calculator link in it that you can plug in. There’s going to be so many great innovative indexes and participation rates that come out. And it’s great. And in competition, the consumer wins. The advisor wins. So I think the important thing is to, there’s a basic rule. It’s the thumb is if the risk control is let it go, it has a very high participation rate. And then the higher risk control number, like a 10 or 16 and a half, you can actually have more equity exposure and more gains for the client at a much lower participation rate because you just have more money working for you in the market. So I think that advisors and agents are gonna start doing their due diligence more than just who’s the manager behind the index. They’re gonna start looking at what is the risk control number and what does that mean and real returns for the forecasting

paul_tyler:
Yeah,

joshua_mellberg:
in the future.

paul_tyler:
well thank you. And Ramsey, any final thoughts or questions here?

ramsey_d_smith:
No, I just want to reiterate what I said. I think rules of thumb are very important in finance because finance is, finance generally speaking, whether at an institutional level or at a personal level is a natural tension between a great deal of precision on one side and on the other side, some really important rules of thumb. And in fact, my experience is that much of the finance will really relies on rules of thumb from day to day. So many of them are very, important. That’s probably for another podcast to go into some of those, but I think it’s valuable.

paul_tyler:
That’s great, Mark, you want to close for us.

mark:
Yeah, you know, I agree with Ramsey’s comments about kind of setting a baseline rules of thumb. And you know, what’s interesting is, you know, the product lines have changed so much over the years. And the one constant that we continuously hear out there is there’s complexity in these products and there’s a need for education. And I think that that’s not going to go away. And I think the more that we can set understandings out there and reach the masses through, you know, pathways that that Josh does very well. I think the more education, the better. So I think this is a great way to kind of help, you know, bring that pathway to not having them be so, you know, complex and misunderstood. So I think this is great. I think this is great.

paul_tyler:
Excellent. All right. Hey Josh, thanks for coming back and catching us up on what you’re doing. Mark Ramsey, thanks. And thanks to our listeners. Give us feedback. Send us comments. And otherwise, tune in next week for another episode of That Anoddy Show. Thanks.

Nick DesrocherEpisode 186: Simplifying Market Exposure and FIA Indices with Josh Mellberg
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Episode 185: Pushing the Frontiers of Digital Insurance with Josh Elohim and Reid Tattersall

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We know both consumers and agents want and expect a different buying experience today. The industry has made significant strides in the last few years. However, the journey isn’t over yet. Josh Elohim and Reid Tattersall from Back Nine Insurance Services give their recommendations for innovation that carriers should support.

Links mentioned in the show:

https://www.back9ins.com

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Episode Transcript

The discussion is not meant to provide any legal, tax, or investment advice with respect to the purchase of an insurance product. A comprehensive evaluation of a consumer’s needs and financial situation should always occur in order to help determine if an insurance product may be appropriate for each unique situation.

paul_tyler:
Hi, this is Paul Tyler and welcome to another episode of that annuity show. Today we are going to talk about advice and technology, how it’s changing, where it is today and what it may look like the next four or five years. Tisa, good morning. How are you?

tisa_rabun_marshall:
Good morning, doing good.

paul_tyler:
good. Well, this is a topic that’s going to be near and dear to your heart. So looking

tisa_rabun_marshall:
Definitely.

paul_tyler:
forward to questions you’re going to pose to the group. Bruno, good morning.

bruno_caron:
Good morning to you.

paul_tyler:
Yeah, and great to have you on the show again. Ramsey, do you want to do the intros?

ramsey_d_smith:
Be happy to. So as always, very happy to be here live from Atlanta. We’re joined today by two folks from Back9 Insurance out of Southern California. We’ve got Reed Tattersall, who is the founder and VP of Back9. And we’ve got Josh Elohim, who is the is the head of sales. And I had the opportunity to meet both of them through various venues over the course of the last you know, interact with their software. And as somebody who thinks quite strongly that software is gonna be an important part of the future, or should be an important part of the future of insurance, I thought it was a great opportunity to bring them on the show, to chat about their approach. Because it, I think there’s a lot of things about it that I think, you know, will be relevant for our industry going forward. So with that, I’m gonna pass it on to the two of you. Reid, why don’t we start with you? Tell us a little bit about yourself. And what made you decide to take this approach as somebody that came from a traditional background in this space?

reid_tattersall:
Thanks for having me. Yeah, so, Scott Mystart, like most agents with the captive company started with Mass Mutual. I think I was in college at the time. Don’t know what I was thinking, just wanted to work or do something productive. And then, I worked for another wholesaler when I was in college as well. And I was all about that education early on, before kids had a lot of time on my hands. CHFC

josh_elohim:
Thank you.

reid_tattersall:
kind of went on and started to grow back nine and kind of started at the bottom in terms of the case management, the marketing, the sales went on and on and Took a while to realize that to have a larger business, to scale it, it’s difficult if you do that just based off of relationships. You know, if your competitive advantage is my relationship with you, you can have a great career, great business, but to grow your team is difficult because the power in that relationship is between that salesperson and that agent. the switch to the technology. Hey, how do you create something that’s a bit more lasting, a bit more sticky, and kind of just dove into that and found a passion for it, and haven’t quite picked our heads up since. So it’s been, I say we’re a very, I still feel like a startup, but it’s been a long time in startup world. I mean, it’s been maybe nine years of building software of iterating to get here.

ramsey_d_smith:
Josh, tell us about yourself. So I’ll just say that Josh is somebody you’ll see spreading this gospel through webinars at conferences.

josh_elohim:
Ha

ramsey_d_smith:
You know, it’s you are, you are out and about and I’ll say you do it very well. Tell us about, tell us about your story.

josh_elohim:
I really appreciate it. I won’t go too far back, but opposite of Reed, I’ve kind of had kids first, and then started working second, if that makes sense. But, so yeah, I’ve been doing sales since I was born. I joke around and say that, but sales is just kind of in my blood, and I just love talking to people and communicating. But I’ve been with Back9 now for, it’s been almost 13 years. Now, I came in with no experience, so it’s a little bit different. whole sales side. It’s always nice talking to someone when they have 30 years of experience and you’re explaining to them why they should work with you, right? So ideally, I’ve learned so much in this business. It’s an absolutely phenomenal business. We always say it’s kind of like this, just very, very, very, very, very slow. It’s not like this, but just very slow and steady. So life insurance, you change people’s lives and it’s truly been a great amazing people and really help to change people’s lives. So I’m really excited for the opportunity here.

paul_tyler:
Yeah, maybe talk to us about a little bit about the problem you’re attacking. Reed, you kind of mentioned that you said it’s hard to grow a business just on personal relationships. You know, what’s the problem you’re solving for agents at your firm?

reid_tattersall:
It’s a big industry, as you know, and so many different ways to sell. So we’re trying to solve a, it’s like the Steve Jobs thing, where how did he compete with free, right? In the era of free music, free movies, just download it for free. What did he do? He made it easy, so easy that you decided to actually pay. So that’s kind of been high level of, How do we create a marketplace so I can go to Expedia.com as opposed to, you know, one airline. I can see all the options, my contractings all handled, I can view the case from start to finish and I can service it as well.

ramsey_d_smith:
Well, what are some of the things that, as you talk to agents, what are the things that, one, come up as the biggest friction points that you’re resolving, and then two, that agents are most surprised that you fixed.

reid_tattersall:
I think agents are most surprised that it’s all just there and they don’t know how easy it is. Right, Ramsey, we were talking, and hey, if you have a WordPress website, you can grab your snippet of code, put it online, and you’re in business. So, agents are constantly emailing, hey, I wanna get set up, cause it’s gonna take time, or am I all set up, what are the next steps? And usually the next step is go sell a policy. You’re already set up. From there though, it’s not easy to be an agent, right? It takes a lot to be successful in that business. So that’s when I say, the hard part is on them to build relationships, to go make it happen. We can make it easy in terms of put everything there for you. Carriers obviously do their part of the whole operations from putting products out and paying commissions. making it happen with customers.

josh_elohim:
To add onto that too, if you don’t mind, I think to figure out a solution, like you said Paul, what’s the problem? And the problem that I’ve seen in this industry is that I joke around, but agents used to do life insurance illustrations with a rock and a chisel, right? So people are used to 40, 50, 60 page paper applications. And so Reed’s vision, he’ll be bashful here, but his vision was he’s a surfer. while collecting applications at the same time. How is that physically possible? So that’s kind of part of the reason that QuotinApply came to fruition. So the goal is when you show people who appreciate our software the most are the agents who’ve been doing this for 20, 30, 40 years. They’re the ones that are like, this is the best thing since sliced bread. Millennials will say, isn’t this the way it’s always been? And then we have to bring them back to reality that, oh, you have no idea this process used to be. So really identifying the problem allows us to get to the solution and that’s what we’ve kind of done here is really just identify the challenges and the second part to that is keeping a lot of agents that have been in the dark. They don’t know what’s going on with their business once they do submit an application. That’s the whole second part of the equation and that’s where we created a whole software to track everything to help agents out, bring them to the 21st century.

tisa_rabun_marshall:
I have a question. Sounds like you’ve been on this technology journey well ahead of the pandemic, but I’m just curious during the time of the pandemic, when we hit that timeframe and we went to quarantine and we really had to change how we worked right overnight. Do you feel like your platform was like well positioned and poised for that change? Were there any surprises where you had to quickly pivot, do something different with your technology to meet agents change in how they were doing business?

reid_tattersall:
Yeah, that year, I think our application count went up at least 60%. So from a business standpoint, we were, um, you know, somewhat prepared, right? It fell into our business model, but there were some bumps along the way, right? You know, carriers change a lot of rules in terms of e-delivery and new forms and such. Um, you know, it’s, it’s awkward to say that, you know, COVID was good for your business platform where insurance agents now have an easier way to sell insurance online or over the phone when in time when you can’t see people I’m happy that you know we were able to do that.

tisa_rabun_marshall:
Did you have any new kind of new offerings come out like post on the other side or?

josh_elohim:
I can speak on this if you don’t mind, Rita. We, for us, it was, I think it was absolutely amazing. Well, first of all, we went to Zoom, we went to technology, software, so being able to communicate where before, I would go, you know, I’ve been in this business for a while, I would throw the suit on, and I would go drive to agent’s office. Did any of you remember that when that used to happen? So that was a very interesting time. Now I can talk to 20 people in a day, and I can see them and I can hear them. integrations that we were trying to get access to. So the front door has been closed for a long time, but the back door with integrations and I had integration come through that was one of my biggest ever. So for me it was absolutely a game changer for us to have the pandemic helped us out tremendously in my opinion.

ramsey_d_smith:
So what has the state of readiness been with sort of the suite of characters, carriers, with whom you’re contracted? Because sometimes the front end, right, the front end is ready, but then at a certain point it hits a back end, set of back end processes. And sort of across all the carriers you deal with, I mean how many of them are sort of product and business.

reid_tattersall:
That’s one of the hardest things of having kind of a marketplace is how do you standardize You know the user experience when each carrier you know has a different interpretation of the same law of You know how products can be sold so there’s a lot of Unique logic that goes on per carrier unfortunately, and these carriers they’re the mountains and Signing up for the fight of gonna try to move a carrier, you know We’ll give a little prod a suggestion here and there, but it’s really up to them That being said, we’ll kind of wait for the carrier to say that they’re ready on certain initiatives, like direct integrations to get applications done instantly. A lot of carriers are excited, but I think their sales teams are well ahead of where the departments are. And then a lot of these insurance companies are dealing with software that was built a long, long time ago. that and it’s not that they’re not working, it’s just, you know, they’re working with some more difficult tools. So we kind of, you know, on a, maybe even a daily basis are looking up and saying, Hey, what’s going to make the best impact? You know, how do I improve our business 10% this week? And those decisions constantly change. It’s hard to know that six months a year in advance. I mean, we have general visions on, on where to go. moving fast and I think if you have a team you just start you know you start building you start you know adding value you start making your users happy and you iterate it’s that lean startup mentality for insurance so you have so many companies out there each one has a different writer or feature or underwriting thing that and it’s insurance right there’s so many niches insurance to life to all these different lines to my guess Paul we were talking about. So our thing is kind of just shots and goal and continuing to try to improve the product, make users happy, that’s the North Star.

paul_tyler:
you could talk just a minute about the other end, the agent operating system. You know, I would say, you know, our Tison and I, Tison and, uh, and I spent a lot of time with some of our agents, you know, talking through their digital marketing needs. Um, they’ll have a website. May not be very good. Sometimes it does look good, but they just don’t have a lot of traffic here for somebody to really take advantage of this technology. What type of journey do you have to take them on? as long as it takes to go, Josh, from I’m used to driving out with a suit and tie, to I actually can comfortably build up my email network and traffic onto the website where I’m actually getting business.

josh_elohim:
No, absolutely. Well, I think failing is what helps us to win, right? And sometimes the only way to really appreciate something is to not have it or to fail at it. And that’s where we’ve seen, you know, our job, like I always said, we have the most fun job on the planet because when you’ve already gone through the failure and you see all the challenges, like I’ve seen everything that can go wrong, right? Everything. And then you have an 85-year-old who gets on a call with you and he says, I can’t believe how easy this is. job is it’s actually working right and so ideally you’re just showing them a process that’s normally done very painfully in the past and then you show them how easy it is now and they’re like wow this is where have you been my whole life? You know how many people have called me and said I’m gonna come out of retirement here because I used to do this all the time and now you’re here now so my favorite quote that I heard was this brings the life Right.

ramsey_d_smith:
So what kinds of things, what kind of agent profiles do you see that are, for whom this works? I mean, so you have, I don’t know, you have however many folks in your pool, like what kind of habits, personality traits, et cetera, like what do you think, how is the agent in this paradigm different than the one that was successful in the old sort of smile and dial paradigm? person.

josh_elohim:
You’ve definitely seen a change in our business. The agent that we know from when I first started was the traditional life insurance agent. That’s all they sold was life insurance. Now we call them dinosaurs now, but that was their bread and butter. They used to carry a book around, right, a thick book, and no one had access to that book, so that was their go-to. And that life insurance agent, what we’ve seen is that now life insurance is not just change now is we’re seeing P&C agents come in and sell life insurance. We’re seeing employee benefit agents come and sell life insurance. We’re seeing financial planners starting to cross sell life insurance. So I think sometimes it’s out of fear, sometimes it’s out of greed, sometimes it’s out of, you know, there’s several different reasons why, but if anyone has a book of business, that’s the best opportunity for them to start cross selling life insurance because what It’s a very sticky client and what it does is it helps because people don’t get rid of their life insurance. They might change it, but they don’t normally get rid of it. So it really makes a very sticky client and it helps to secure that book of business.

reid_tattersall:
Ramsey,

bruno_caron:
And you mentioned

reid_tattersall:
I, I,

bruno_caron:
the, oh sorry, go ahead. No,

reid_tattersall:
no,

bruno_caron:
no,

reid_tattersall:
go ahead, Bruno.

bruno_caron:
no, but you mentioned the 15, the 50 pages that are already, oh, always there that everyone struggled with. How do you see and how can you use technology to make it more efficient? And most importantly, shape the right message. Because I think we all know that sometimes puts us all on different tangents that are not necessarily relevant for the core and the real focus of any insurance product that you’re selling. So how can you use technology to bring the conversation at the right place and focus accordingly?

josh_elohim:
I think that, it’s a great question Bruno, and I think that freedom is what people really want these days, right? They wanna be free and they wanna do, they wanna be able to have what they wanna have. I always joke around, I say, you wanna be free, like Braveheart. But, does everyone see this thing right here? I know the viewers can’t see this, but I have my cell phone up here right now. We’re all hunters, not like we used to hunt, but hunting now is done through the cell phone. So, people hunt through their cell phone every single day, So ideally, we need to build it to have the new features of hunting. This is building this for the millennials, building this for people who are so used to having what they want, when they want, without having to, I’m sure you’ve all seen things where you go to get life insurance, and then they say, give me your email and your phone number. Most people just leave that site. So it’s about giving people information and giving it to them quickly. And when you give people what they want, happens, they take it and they run with it.

reid_tattersall:
I think people think of life insurance online, and a lot of times they just associate with like direct marketing or spin a website up, and all of a sudden people are gonna purchase life insurance or products from them. And that’s been especially difficult the last couple of years. You’ve talked earlier about money going into a bunch of companies that are no longer in business or are not doing so well. It was a red ocean to buy leads. If you were doing SEO or buying leads 10 years ago, very different than the last five years. As some of these people stop spending so much, that wave may come back where it’s a bit more affordable. Companies, it’s not okay to lose a ton of money. The type of agent using this is technology can be used by the traditional agent. process to quote, I want to have my fingertips, I want to take applications whether it’s on my phone or the customer does it or you know we have this other sort of embedded insurance type of marketing and we’ve sped that process up dramatically right it’s you know if you have if you have trust with your users the initial thought with this was hey we’re gonna go to think of America and for products but aren’t doing them. What do they have? They have the trust with the customer. So those sorts of organizations, if you have trust with your audience, you can probably do embedded insurance because your brand customers know you. If you don’t and you’re for the first time buying Facebook ads, you know, you’re going to have a much, much harder time. You’re probably going to fail. agent thinking that I can just stick this on the website, there’s probably a bit of a reality check for nine out of ten of us.

paul_tyler:
Interesting. So we have an event actually in New York on the 27th. Ramsey’s leading one panel. Topic is Future of Innovation and Retirement. We actually have a VC panel. And one of the questions is, you know, where is the money going? Where should the money be going? If you kind of look to take your experience, you know, look, a lot of people have done some great work, some as found and solved a problem. I think others juries out. You know, if you were advising somebody on a hundred million dollar VC portfolio in this space, where would you put the money?

reid_tattersall:
Yeah.

ramsey_d_smith:
Pick your bank carefully first.

paul_tyler:
Pick your bank.

josh_elohim:
Ha ha ha ha!

reid_tattersall:
Crypto life insurance. No, just kidding.

paul_tyler:
Yeah.

reid_tattersall:
What’s so we’re talking? Hey, do you become a carrier? Do you become a distributor? Do you become a fee based service?

paul_tyler:
Yeah, if you kind of looked across the services you’re building, the services you’re using, you said, you know what, if we had a better XYZ, this industry would be a lot better. It would be easier for us to go to business, it would be easier for agents to sort of plug into this marketplace. Would it be, you know, on the lead gen side, would it be, you know, the technology that maybe may have a broader, you know, impact on our business? Zoom, I’m going to tell you, is probably one of the best insure tech disruptors of our time.

josh_elohim:
Thank you.

paul_tyler:
probably don’t see it that way, we do.

ramsey_d_smith:
Well, maybe another way to think about it is, so you’ve solved, we’ve got a business process here, right? There’s a value chain and you’ve solved a clear portion of it, right? And then there are other parts of the value chain that probably introduce some constraints in your business. As successful as your business has been, there’s probably other things you wish other people would fix. So maybe what are the things that you would wanna see fixed outside of your direct purview, be helpful to to growing your business further.

reid_tattersall:
It’s great to see carriers hiring their own talent for engineering and building their own tools. In that situation, they control their destiny. If they use a third party, what usually happens is, well, let’s get a bid from that third party. Let’s get approval for these hours and things just don’t happen. So, you know, I can’t say you could just jump in insurance company, but if you could allocate that money towards, you know, hey, you spend a couple million, five million per carrier and you divvied out to 20 carriers, and their job is to build APIs for distribution for anyone that needs it. And now we have this ecosystem, almost like this open source community where we can see everything that’s available. story to carriers of creating an API sales strategy. One of the most important things from a company is being able to provide your quote. What is your price? You can’t provide, are you serious? You can’t provide your price? And a lot of companies are still there today where we don’t want our price to get out because we don’t want to be spread-sheeted. So yeah, I’d say companies build internal tools, put them out there with public documentation, show the world what you have. And I think it might take some time, but people are gonna adopt that.

paul_tyler:
I love that answer. I do think like open banking should come to insurance open insurance Now it’s interesting. I’ve talked to people who are involved in the NAAC and they say what could we do? I’ll tell them, you know, you got a lot of power there. You dictate that carers must file a PDF application for you to prove Why don’t you require an API at the same time now I get just blank stares What are your thoughts here? Should we, you know, when we go to mark with products, should we, every carer be required to also file the API with the regulator state by state?

ramsey_d_smith:
Well, I think sort of philosophically, I think as an industry, and even coming from being an investment banker, we were wired the same way. We tend to focus a lot on the technology of like the project itself, the widget. But the real sort of opportunity is to focus on the experience. And so the question is, you know, all right, well, what form of product lends itself to being delivered through electronic media, for the whole, again, from point to point. So yes, whether it’s submitting an API or whatever it happens to be, but literally in the process of developing a product, also being very clear on the electronic journey it’s going to take along the way, I think is important.

reid_tattersall:
When you compare that to a company that has to deal with hardware or inventory, I keep on thinking it should be so much easier, right? We’re selling intangible products. You know, these things are unlimited.

tisa_rabun_marshall:
Yeah, it’s an interesting question, Paul. I mean, I think about the power of enforcing or standardizing something through the submission and approval process. And I think technology or the API sort of unlocks and gets everyone’s mind shifted to, we’re going to enable this every time and all carriers will offer it. But I almost take it back a level to the very, very basics of a common form or a standardized, like, everyone needs name, everyone needs SSN. then enabling technology on top of it would be much easier. You’re not necessarily having to retool and rebuild for each carrier. Each agent, you know, agents across several carriers would have a common experience. Clients across several purchases could have a common experience. And I know it’s a kind of huge thing to tackle. I’ve heard it talked about a little bit, but standardizing or creating sort of that common form. And they’ve done it for scholarships. You know, why can’t we do it for insurance?

paul_tyler:
Yeah, Bruno, I actually think Canada’s farther along this curve than the US. I mean, I’ve seen, now there are fewer carriers in Canada who have much more market cloud. But I know that there were some sort of standardized efforts to do things as, yeah, Ramsey’s boring as checking licensing centrally. Bruno, have you spent much time looking at the Canadian solution to this?

bruno_caron:
Well, it’s like everything else. The big institutions, government, tackle problems one way or the other. So I wouldn’t say one way is better or the other way is better. But I think there’s a common denominator where everything takes so much time. Simple things, just like Tisa, just like you mentioned, those very simple things take a long, long time. For better or for worse, but I wouldn’t say, you know, when one country is significantly ahead of the game or the other, I mean, those issues, I think, are recurring everywhere.

paul_tyler:
Josh, yeah, go ahead.

josh_elohim:
I was going to say, I get the challenge. See, the challenge for carriers is they have to protect themselves. So life insurance has always been sold through an agent. That’s kind of like been their security of protection. Well, nowadays, now we have, I can’t speak for anyone else, but our software is individually. It can be done by the client. So now, all of a sudden, you have a new level of security that scares the carriers for their protection. We know that consumers are driving everything right now and they want to build, do stuff themselves. So, part of what was really important to us is the agent-facing slash consumer-facing. And that opened the door to five or six other industries that we never had a chance to be in before. Hence, the employee benefits, the property casually. Before, we had no opportunity to be in that space. signature and you could be selling life insurance like that. Oh you have 10,000 clients, okay, how about cross selling every single one of them life insurance without you lifting one finger? It sounds pretty nice, right? Now it is happening now, you know, maybe 10% it’s by the consumer 100%, but that just kind of gets the ball rolling here. So that to me is some of the challenges of the carrier, but that’s they have to overcome that challenge because consumers now are really running the show, they don’t have to go to more. So that’s probably the biggest difference

paul_tyler:
Yeah,

josh_elohim:
that I’ve seen.

paul_tyler:
I’ll agree with you. Fear blocks lots of change. Everybody’s in favor of change until it changes them. We all kind of wired

josh_elohim:
I like that.

paul_tyler:
that way. I was in the flip side, if we had, T.C. jump in here, if you disagree, if we had our IT team on here, they’d say, we’re not scared, Paul and T.C. We’ve got a lot of projects on our plate. Big, huge things. We got this big, giant mainframe that was built. You heard this stuff. case. So, Reed and Josh, I’d really be interested. So, you’re how you would go and pitch this allocation to all these carriers. What’s the ROI here? Is it selling more per agent of what they’re selling today? Is it that, oh, finally, you can start to see cross sales. We’ve all been talking about it for years and years, but it hasn’t happened. It will happen now. What’s the business

reid_tattersall:
Yeah, I think for a lot of companies, I would say it’s simply renting versus owning or term insurance versus some form of permanent insurance. Are you going to invest in your own engineering team or are you going to continue to use third parties? And, you know, at best you’re gonna be kind of average if you can stick with, you know, outsource stuff. If you wanna differentiate yourself, which every insurance company wants to do. If you want to improve that user experience, if you outsource, you’re probably going to be just like the next person. You outsource as well, probably to the same company. So it’s a chance, every business is a technology business. It’s a chance to lead, to be forefront and the investments that they make today are going to pay off long-term.

paul_tyler:
Okay, Josh, what’s your pitch for 10 million bucks to go into this stuff? Because you know, whatever costs, you know, you think it’s costs multiplied times 10 when you get to the large organization.

josh_elohim:
Well, we do this pitch almost every day because companies are wanting to know why they should partner with us, right? Well, how is this going to work out? How is this going to benefit us? We won’t mention names, but Reed knows the company we’re talking to right now about this. For me, in order to change your circumstances, you have to change the circle you’re standing in, right? So what we had to do, I’ll speak on us for a second, we had to step out of our comfort wholesalers or GA’s or IMO’s, whatever you want to call them, how many of those do you know who have three full-time programming people? So Reid is actually practicing what he’s preaching right now in the call. We had to step out of our comfort zone, and seven or eight years ago we really had to say, hey, we have to do something different here, because what I realized is all these wholesalers are all the same, you know, they’re really just, they’ve been given, they’re kind of order takers. So we really had to step out of our comfort zone to be able to do something different, programmers came in the play. And now, like you said, you were impressed. You said we have an open API. We have all the stuff that we’ve built here. But I call it walking on water because we don’t charge anybody anything, any kind of money, right? I’m still working reading that part of the equation, charging for this, but I don’t think we’ll ever get there. Go ahead, we were going to say something, Ramsay.

ramsey_d_smith:
No, I just was, you and I have had some conversations. So I was just revisiting those conversations

josh_elohim:
Ha ha.

ramsey_d_smith:
in my mind. Well, look, I have to say, this is, look, it’s all fascinating. I mean, I’m particularly sort of intrigued by this notion that development should be done in-house versus outside. That’s like a real tension right now in the industry, right? And there are legacy systems, mainframes, a lot of COBOL, and we’re in a world where, in general, the new world is obviously cloud-based solutions. So yeah, that’s an interesting takeaway for me from this discussion,

reid_tattersall:
Yeah, I

ramsey_d_smith:
I have to say.

reid_tattersall:
mean, definitely make things cloud based, but I think some people outsource and they feel like the problem’s off their desk.

ramsey_d_smith:
Yeah.

reid_tattersall:
And sometimes they hire, you know, they say the 10x engineer, well, they’re hiring 0.1x engineers and they have a hundred of them. Um, so, you know, a small team can do a whole lot. And I know

ramsey_d_smith:
Yeah.

reid_tattersall:
that they got legacy stuff, but work late, you know, I told people done, you know? And some of them I feel like just, that’s not their MO, right? They’re not that start-up mentality where they’re going to shake the trees and push stuff. You know, they’re looking for their boss and their boss’s boss to have three meetings before they get the okay and they procrastinate and things don’t get done.

paul_tyler:
So Tisa, you push this argument a number of times. What would you add to what they’ve said? I mean, what are the arguments that convince people to do things differently inside carriers?

tisa_rabun_marshall:
Inside carriers, I was going to say the industry, their market is really driven by what consumers are going to start looking for and demanding. We can talk about how agents may or may not be looking to change how they do business. But if they don’t, the consumer or the client’s going to show up that is looking to buy differently, I think that drives some of the change. But inside the carrier, maybe it’s a lot of the same conversation. A lot of times when I’m sitting there explaining what we’re working on, I take it out of the industry. our everyday life, whether it’s how you’re ordering food home to the kid because you’re at a meeting and they’re at home texting you saying they’re hungry or your own buying experience for travel or your own buying or investing experience, you know, online to do it yourself investor. Like I feel like if we think about our own lives and how we are in the consumer seat often and think about the technology and experiences that we’re demanding, why wouldn’t the So I feel like when you bring it down to that level and think about your life and your everyday, it starts to paint the picture, the ROI. I’ll just give one more comment, which is being in a position of sort of supporting aging parents. It comes to the forefront really quick. You’re sitting here thinking about, how are you going to help your parents make their decisions? And you’re a lot of times taking the control there. It may not be my parent that’s looking for the modern buying situation, how I’m going to do the research and how I’m going to help them make the decision is very much looking for a more modern technology driven on my own time type of experience. I think that helps justify

paul_tyler:
down.

tisa_rabun_marshall:
why we need to shift how we do business.

paul_tyler:
Well put.

josh_elohim:
Believe it or not, in 2023, today, people are still scared of going through a life insurance process. Because you believe that or not? Like they’re still dreading going through an application. They still think that it’s paper. They still think that, and so really we just have to change that mindset. It just has to be one person at a time. I can’t tell you how many times we do a, we go through an application and the person at the end says, that was it. I’ve been dreading this whole entire time. I’ve been scared of this process and we’re done. Obviously it helps with Zoom or Teams when you pass the screen, right? The joke that I say is we just finished a 60 or 70 page paper application and you don’t even know if I had pants

paul_tyler:
Yeah.

josh_elohim:
on. It always gets a good laughter. So I try to keep it lightened

paul_tyler:
Yeah.

josh_elohim:
and have some fun here. in the same sentence, but you gotta keep it fun

paul_tyler:
that’s

josh_elohim:
these

reid_tattersall:
Tee-sa-bit

josh_elohim:
days,

paul_tyler:
great well

josh_elohim:
you know?

paul_tyler:
here rams you right at the end of time you want to like

ramsey_d_smith:
Sure, just a couple things. First of all, any parting comments from Josh or Reed? Do we miss anything?

reid_tattersall:
I want to hear what Tisa did, right? That was a real life situation. Did you have the, you know, was the information there for you to make a decision? Why didn’t you make a decision or why did you?

tisa_rabun_marshall:
give you kind of a two-part response. So of course, no, everything I needed wasn’t there and there were gaps, right? Because our industry is behind and I got frustrated with the process. But maybe going off of what both Reed and Josh you said, I think that there’s an avoidance of process, but I think more so it’s an avoidance of the emotional. Like, I don’t think really people acknowledge the emotional impact of that life and also say specifically life insurance, life think through what it feels like to not be here or what it feels like for there to be a gap in your family, whether it’s financially, emotionally supportive. And I think that’s the avoidance factor. Luckily, I have parents that were kind of willing to have the uncomfortable and sit down and say, like, here’s what we need to do if I’m not here, here’s what’s in place if I’m not here. But like, that’s a really hard emotional place to be in. I think people avoid that more than anything and then comes the process. gaps and how it got done. I happened to be by Coastal, so parents in Seattle, and I’m in Hartford, Connecticut. So if my agent wasn’t willing to get on Zoom and go through this with me, I wasn’t flying home to have the conversation. So building that relationship on Zoom was very real for me. And going through the process, even though it was paper and printing it out and scanning it and signing it back and docusign, we got it done. There were a lot of pain points along the way. the importance of it probably because I’ve grown up in the industry. But that’s not common for every family. So I hope I’m answering your question. But there’s definitely room for improvement, but there were some bright spots along the way.

reid_tattersall:
That’s a great point and all end with maybe taking Paul’s $100 million and

tisa_rabun_marshall:
Bye.

reid_tattersall:
tying it in. I think one of the best super ball commercials was about the dog and the dog food. They appealed not to the ethos, which is the logical side, which is most of the marketing we see, but to the, I think it’s correct me if I’m wrong, but to the pathos, to the emotional And I’d love to see some companies master the emotional side of life insurance in a class U.A. that gets people like Tisa convinced and sold. Because when you get a customer that’s already mentally convinced, they make decisions fast and they implement.

paul_tyler:
Excellent.

ramsey_d_smith:
All right, well, thanks everybody. And we were just over the hour. It was great conversation and appreciate having the two of you on.

paul_tyler:
and the

josh_elohim:
Thank you very

reid_tattersall:
Thanks

josh_elohim:
much.

reid_tattersall:
guys.

josh_elohim:
Appreciate it.

tisa_rabun_marshall:
Thank you.

Nick DesrocherEpisode 185: Pushing the Frontiers of Digital Insurance with Josh Elohim and Reid Tattersall
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Episode 183: Banning Monte Carlo Simulations & More With David Macchia

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BDo Monte Carlo simulations cause more harm than good? David Macchia, Retirement Income Strategist,  Entrepreneur, and Founder of Wealth2k explores this topic and more today. We cover the politics of pay, why “sales” seems like a dirty word, and our upcoming Retiretech 2.0 conference in NYC.

Do Monte Carlo simulations cause more harm than good? David Macchia, Retirement Income Strategist,  Entrepreneur, and Founder of Wealth2k explores this topic and more today. We cover the politics of pay, why “sales” seems like a dirty word, and our upcoming Retiretech 2.0 conference in NYC.

Links mentioned:

https://www.linkedin.com/in/macchia/

https://www.fa-mag.com/news/why-monte-carlo-simulations-for-retirement-income-should-be-banned-71909.html?print

https://imagine.nfg.com/retiretech-forum-2-0/

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Episode Transcript

The discussion is not meant to provide any legal, tax, or investment advice with respect to the purchase of an insurance product. A comprehensive evaluation of a consumer’s needs and financial situation should always occur in order to help determine if an insurance product may be appropriate for each unique situation.

paul_tyler:
Hi, this is Paul Tyler and welcome to another episode of that annuity show. Bruno. Good to see you.

bruno_caron:
Good to see you. Good afternoon, and very always always in a good mood when we talk to David. So looking forward to this

paul_tyler:
Yeah, good. all right, Ramsey. good

ramsey_d_smith:
All

paul_tyler:
to see

ramsey_d_smith:
right,

paul_tyler:
you on a

ramsey_d_smith:
good

paul_tyler:
Friday.

ramsey_d_smith:
to be here on on on a Friday here from Atlanta. Delighted to welcome back to our program. David, Marcia, David Is, has done lots of different things in our In our space Primarily would like to be described to somebody who’s I’m paraphrasing, been steadfastly dedicated to financial literacy and in Lusion, and along the way has done so defending the benefits of annuities, And we’re going to be talking about some, some, really, some, critical, some critical ways that he thinks we should be thinking about both annuities, and also importantly, thinking about some of the analytical tools that that underlie some of the advice that’s given these days, So with that I’ll turn it over. Turn it over to actually turn over to you, Bruno To start off the conversation.

bruno_caron:
Well, thank you, Ramsey, and as we said, very very happy to always continued the conversation with with David and David. Why don’t we start off with with a recent? A few recent articles that were were published in Advisor Perspective. That was all related to H to Monte Carlo simulation. We all know that it is a tool that is being used by by advisers and planners, and Sometimes that tool is being used counter the benefit of potentially using annuities and financial planning. You’ve been a very very deep voice on on income retirement income through through your flame framework of the constraint investor. What are your thoughts on the the status today of money car Simulations?

david:
Well, great question, and so good to be here with you guys. Become such a devotee of this show. You have done such a wonderful job with it, and privileged and honored to be part of it again today. thank you for having me back. So Bruno when that article was published by Advisor Perspectives, January ninth, I believe, written by Weight Fou and Massimo Young. it was a monumental occurrence that did not in my judgment, get as much attention as it should have. I think every financial advisor in the United States should read that article, whether you are a anuityfan or not. It’s so very important, because what it showed in a way that’s inauguable is that Marny Callow is anything but scientific. It’s variable, it’s arbitrary. It’s contingent upon the capital markets assumptions that an advisor or firm users and foul and young. Even I thought this Fascinating. They went to forty investment firms, including some of the largest in the United States. Mere Goldman sacks, J. P. Morgan and others, and they brought the case of an individual and said, What would your money college simulation tell this person? And the range of outcomes among those forty firms was remarkable from a sixty two percent confidence rate to a ninety five percent confidence rate. What is a Dividual? What is a consumer to think of that? And you know, the assumptions that they showed, maybe like on equities, ranged from five percent to ten per cent on bonds. The range was incredible.

ramsey_d_smith:
The return assumption, You mean?

david:
the return assumptions,

ramsey_d_smith:
Yeah,

david:
so there’s absolutely no scientific a notion about it And here’s here’s my problem with it. I’ve always thought and I’ve written about this multiple times that it was an inappropriate tool to use with constrain investors, because Constraint investors, by definition, must have protection against longevity risk, and they must have protection against time and risk, And Marni Carlo does not make room for That Doesn’t make room for what. for those people is the most important issue in planning their income. But what thou and young did was showed that it’s It’s inapplicability is way broader than I had thought about it. It really is inapplicable to logically kind of everybody. And my problem is that it gets used as a proxy for safety. You have a false set of confidence that comes out of it, Because you say retire, You have a ninety five percent chance that this is going to work out perfectly, but it could be a sixty per cent chance or a seventy percent chance, or a fifty nine percent chance, or an eighty eight percent chance based upon those assumptions that are selected, and that’s just way too risky for most people for most people, Retirement. And so I think it should not be used in the context of retirement income with certainly most people, if not all. And that’s why I wrote that article, and again, I think foul and young. That article needs to be read by everybody. It was such an important development.

bruno_caron:
It’s a good point, and I think that risky is one thing, and you know the fear within within investments, and all of those risks that retires actually face are absolutely true. But do you also see an angle where either using annuities or using other types of lifetime vehicle can not only reduce Risk or protect, but also leverage and help retires. being a position of strength, in other words, not just playing, not just used annuities to play defense, but use annuities to play offense

david:
A great point, and I think annuities reduce risk and enhance risk of exposure. And what I mean by that is if you are a retire who has a plan that incorporates annuities in the right way, you get a couple of things that come out of that. you, first of all, every month through retirement, you havei a guaranteed pay check. Secondly, you have long term protection against longevity risk. If you have those two comforting factors in your plan, And and then you have exposure to equities, which you should have, But the market goes bad. It gets really volatile. It’s generating big losses in a strategy that doesn’t have those protection dynamics. People are going to run away from it most likely, But if you have that security, if the advisor can get on the phone, you know Bruno. I know you’re nervous. Everybody’s nervous. but listen, your paycheck is secure. Don’t worry about it. Write this Out. and there, the annuity becomes the empowering factor for being able to stay exposed to risk. Does that make sense?

ramsey_d_smith:
I think you’re

bruno_caron:
Absolutely

ramsey_d_smith:
muted.

bruno_caron:
Absolutely, And I think that’s a. It’s a very powerful message that things need to be looked at on an aggregate basis, and I think

david:
Well,

bruno_caron:
we all agree.

david:
it goes to the notion that the secret of retirement income is not one thing you know. we tend to. We tend to you know. again, Go into these silos and the investment people think that they’re the answer for everything, insurance people. they think that they’re the answer for everything. In the reality is that we’re both the answer. We have to by definition be both.

ramsey_d_smith:
Yeah, that’s that’s the truth and it’s unfortunate that that a combination of a combination of things sort of contribute to that one is cultural and philosophical. Between those two parties. Another one is the way to those two parties has compensated right and there isn’t you know. There hasn’t been sort of an easy way to sort of melt. The two things melted two things together. We’ve talked a lot about this on this show about different ways you can resolve that Flat fees. Ourleafees. What have you? But it is it isn’t it is an, it is, an ongoing is an ongoing challenge. And you know, as we talked about before the show, I mean Marti Carlo Monticarlo, I think look, I think it’s useful. Certainly it under penned a lot of the work I used to do in my old, my old profession, but the key thing is that it shouldn’t be used as an absolute answer. It should be the start of a conversation, and to your point, the drama To the differentials in in in assumptions, Uh, you don’t make all the difference. All the difference in the world. It’s really, and it’s really going to be very hard for you, typical consumer to be able to decipher that Like which which advisor

david:
Yeah,

ramsey_d_smith:
has got the right set of assumptions Versus which one doesn’t

david:
Yeah,

ramsey_d_smith:
They don’t have the

paul_tyler:
Yeah,

ramsey_d_smith:
tools to do that.

david:
I can’t.

paul_tyler:
well, I would. also you. just sort of take another angle. Then another vector criticism is. Does the presentation of the data create a false impression of the results? I mean David. In your paper, you kind of hit on that is that man, the capital. You know, some of the capital market assumptions have wild impacts on this. you know, I saw one annuity Where some people have done some back casting on a particular set of returns with one index strategy was interesting. You. Ow. you, look at it. It was if you kind of looked and said, Okay, what are the odds that this thing is not going to result? Return great results. you know, Fifteen, twenty years out, I look like it was a flip a coin. So of chances, Now when you really dig into those dots at the bottom, what do they all have in common? Well, they were all markets in which you had Steep declines in the last couple of years of retirement, and just sort of wiped out your retirement. So Ou know, if I had just looked at a sort of normal distribution results, I would have said well, probably could work out, but it really didn’t tell me that I’ve got mammoth amount of risk in this particular strategy. If like god forbid, I get close to retirement and the market does what it just did,

david:
That’s an excellent point and you resonates with me for a couple of reasons. Paul. One big reason is that when I started in the retirement income business, I had a bucketing strategy. Six buckets, you know, and the buckets. I’m absolutely convinced From observation help people behave better, you know, especially the early years of retirement. But there is that risk that what happens when I’m eighty three and I’m close to the end there and I have a big down turn of the market, And that’s why we added flooring into the strategy. That’s why we add the lifetime Income element years ago to create a hybrid. because just for that very reason, you need to have that downside protection, at least a minimum amount of guaranteed income to cover your essential expensive. Your point is, Your point is an important one. in my judgment.

bruno_caron:
So going back to the you know the Man Card simulation in parallel to that, Having Carlo simulation type tool implies that you have a systematic withdrawal plan. If you have a systematic withdrawal plan, can you discuss some of the dynamics that are going on in terms of withdrawal versus versus return? So in, in an upward return, You’re selling more or less of securities to get the same pay check or same same same withdrawal, and vice versa markets go down. What happens and what is the philosophy behind that In terms of

david:
M.

bruno_caron:
in terms of executing on your systematic withdrawal plan,

david:
Ah, so the way an advisor said it to me once was the best I ever heard. I wish I had thought of it, he said, The problem of systematic withdrawal plants, as they force you to make poor investment decisions, classically poor investment decision. So what do you mean? he said, Well, think about it. The markets going up up up up up. What would you want to do as an investor? A smart investor would want to sell them and take profits, lock in profits. But the systematic whdrawupplan forces you to sell less when the market is going up, and when the market is nose diving. What? What a smart investor do? Well, That’s when you hold on, you know to to those positions regain you know their value and you could sell them at that time. but the systematic with Dora plan advises you to do the opposite when when stocks on nose di, think it says, sell more some more, And that’s when you get into. obviously the downward spiral that if it happens early in retirement, can cause people to run out of money and have those two dreaded words. The academics, a portfolio ruin, Right means in your dead, broke in retirement. So you know The other thing is, and I get criticized on line for this by by a noted academic. Um. I said, I quoted another advisor. You know the idea they come back with. You know remedy for this as well. We have a dynamic which roll scheme. When the market is going down, you know you’re going to cut back your income right, And the advisors had a beautiful quote and basically said, You know that’s something that works in the academic world Right in a spread sheet. But when you’re sitting down at the kitchen table with a real client and you tell them that they need to take a thirty five percent pay cut this year that doesn’t go, that doesn’t work. And you know if you’re a constrained investor, go back to that type of investor again. you know. for me, the systematical drug plan should be forbidden, because those people may have enough money to retire. They don’t have any money to make a mistake.

bruno_caron:
That’s It’s a good way to put it, and that’s when the conversations on. Well, if the plan doesn’t work, I still need money now, for you know, for basic needs for necessities or for trips, Because I mean do that trip later on. I may be injured later on, I may be impaired. I may be dead. and the flip side to that is you may not. So that’s that. That’s definitely definitely a consideration that the practical world is not always in line with with the theory. So what do you? What do you? How do you? How do you gage at? How do you calculate that? How do you? How do you see if you’re if you have enough. If you’re a constraint investor? What are some of the some of the guide lines that that you have that you can recommend to people to bench mark themselves in terms of Sets an income.

david:
Yeah, well, in building a plan, I think most advisers who are working with Constrained invests would try to determine how much of the total acid base has to be devoted to safe income sources. Social security obviously would be one. If there’s a pension there, Lucky an annuity to supplement that. What would it cost to create enough a safe income to match against their essential expenses? And then what’s left over? And what kind of plan can you eat? And you know it’s not unusual where the clients, um, conception of retirement is really, or kill with reality where they think that they’re going to have a ex amount of dollars, you know of income and they’re not able to really get that, And I give you a real world example from about two months ago I was introduced to these people in Colorado, and she’s seventy two and he’s seventy three, and they have lost. They had about two point one million dollars, and before these corrections in recent months, then they lost about three hundred and ninety thousand dollars, and they were told by the financial advisor that he was going to put them in quote, Unquote Warren Buffets portfolio, whatever

bruno_caron:
Oh,

david:
that means, And you know now they’ve lost about four hundred thousand dollars And there are life style is too expensive For what their portfolio can yield, and so became a conversation. Where can we cut back? Do I need the third car? You know, Can I cut this back? Can I cut that back? And these are difficult conversations that advisors have with folks all the time, and you have to go through that process with someone who’s really constrained to get to something that can work for them and create a aminimally acceptable lifestyle.

ramsey_d_smith:
See you’re on mute, Paul,

paul_tyler:
So I’ll open this door carefully.

ramsey_d_smith:
M,

david:
Oh

ramsey_d_smith:
M.

paul_tyler:
So is the government actually in policy makers? They finally seen the value of annuities, Now evidence secure Act to Dot, secure Act, secure Act, Dot. I can’t believe the government is actually making matching contributions.

david:
H.

paul_tyler:
Now you know,

david:
M.

paul_tyler:
for one case, or savings vehicles in first people of certain income levels, I think they’ve made it more friendly to Annuities inside for an K. plans. Is this? Are we finally starting to take annuities a little out of a political discussion more, and moving it into a one of policy?

david:
Well, policy is political, so first of all, isn’t it a wonderful development that these things are happening right and it isn’t in the national interest that these things are happening. I believe it is. I believe it is. M. It’s a healthy trend and I think it’s probably going to continue because the social compact is strengthened by more annuity, annuitized, income or guaranteed income. There’s no question about that, but I’d like to if I can’t ask you guys a question. Tho, because when you talk about politics, I go back to Ramsey’s comment earlier about compensation right, There’s a lot of fights that are compensation based. Would you agree with me that All advisers have to be paid for their work and we have a big enough space where we can accommodate multiple payment schemes and multiple practice models. The bigger issue for me is let’s do the right job for retires. Let’s not exclude solutions based upon a payment model. Let’s acknowledge, Okay, I get paid the way I get paid, but I’m going to do the right thing. You know, to me, That would be taking the politics out of the annuity conversation, as opposed to fighting about the annuity and the payment schemes. I don’t know. What do you guys think about that?

ramsey_d_smith:
So let’s go one question at a time. So the first one was the first one was that every the advisors should be paid. And so if if I use the term advisors very generically to

david:
Yeah,

ramsey_d_smith:
include fiduciary advisors, to include insurance agents, to include right with a small, A,

david:
Yeah,

ramsey_d_smith:
Um, Yes, absolutely, I think that there should be compensation there. And and as much as people say that certain certain types of advisors and agents don’t Don’t don’t always add value. If that were the case, then there wouldn’t be so many questions from clients and long conversations to get to

david:
Yeah,

ramsey_d_smith:
right to get to a conclusion of a sale. So

david:
Good

ramsey_d_smith:
yes,

david:
point

ramsey_d_smith:
for sure, there should be compensation. And then the second piece was. Um. Was that, having accepted that that we should be able to focus on retires first? Absolutely so, yes and yes, Bruno. you’re up. We lost Paul temporarily. So you’re up,

bruno_caron:
On the compensation issue, I mean, it’s a broader question, I mean, should should construction worker get paid? Should doctors get paid? Of course, I mean that’s that’s That’s how we’re constructed as as a society. and as you, you both alluded to. It’s a complex world. It’s it’s a complex environment. So you need that knowledge you need. you need. you need that that connection between the consumer and you know this, this this complex Environment. So there’s there’s no doubt there that that’s That’s just stating the obvious. And so you know, the question is how, and of course I think that anyone with the right sense is. Uh, cannot argue that you know annuities should be ignored for everyone. I mean that that’s just a complete nonsense. If you’re you’re looking at it from a pure Academic standpoint. Some you price future cash loads to certain reality at the end of the day. Are you going to accomplish your goes through through some guarantees through some insurance contracts or through some investment? I think we all agree that the answer is a little bit of both, and I think that those those things should be should be looked anintendem. And and that’s just a simple reality, that that that that can help retires do the right things accomplish their their goals of simply living a life that that they want and deserve.

david:
Makes sense.

ramsey_d_smith:
Paul. it’s your turn. You were off for a second. The question was are can agents? should agents and advisors be compensated for their work? And if we can agree that they’re more than more than one way to accomplish that fairly, should we be able to focus on retires?

paul_tyler:
I would think so now as risk what I guess or question mark. What will? what will the dol come out with later this year? They’ve already told us that they’re coming out with another fiduciary rule and David. I think this will have a major impact on retire plan Now, Maybe it’s the compensation mount model. Maybe it’s the disclosure. Not sure you may have

david:
Yeah,

paul_tyler:
more better information than I have.

david:
I don’t I know. I know it’s being challenged or will be challenged more. I don’t know. but let me let me throw one more question out. I think we should dlink two words. This really annoys me when when advisors say I don’t sell annuities, sell annuities sell being a pajoritif. By definition, right, in my perspective is everybody sells. The whole economy is based on selling right. lawyers sell doctors, so investment advisors sell their services. They persuade clients that they’re a better investment adviser than another investment advisor. It’s not a dirty word. Do you agree that sell is not a dirty word

bruno_caron:
I agree.

ramsey_d_smith:
All right, I, well, I fundamentally agree that I agree that everybody sells sell is not a dirty word. What it does do, is it? I think it clarifies that, irrespective of your of your job, whether you took the hypocratic oath or your, you know, a c, f, P, or you’re an agent, or whatever, whatever you happen to do right, you ultimately end up having to sell your services. It’s Very clear in the medical profession whether it’s farmer suticals, or it’s cosmetic surgery, or you know all other sorts of sort of alternative, alternative forms of medicine that you know that are optional that are nice to have the not need to have that that are sold very aggressively by by by the medical profession. It’s everywhere. it’s everywhere. So so my point of view is maybe I come across a ittle bit more cynical. I just sort of accept that it’s normal in every part of our lives Doesn’t make me love. Word sell,

bruno_caron:
M,

ramsey_d_smith:
But I just accepted

bruno_caron:
hm,

paul_tyler:
Well,

ramsey_d_smith:
that

paul_tyler:
you

ramsey_d_smith:
it’s

paul_tyler:
know I agree, David. we’re selling all the time. Somehow you know, semantics have gotten to the point where selling has A has been linked to manipulation or aggressive persuasion. Because you noticed nobody has have yet seen anybody in the last five years, Get promoted to be head of sales and a company that are all Chief Revenue

david:
Distribution?

paul_tyler:
officer, Chief

bruno_caron:
M,

paul_tyler:
growth

bruno_caron:
hm,

paul_tyler:
Growth officer. Right,

bruno_caron:
That’s a good point.

paul_tyler:
Right,

david:
Yep,

paul_tyler:
it is.

ramsey_d_smith:
I never thought of that.

paul_tyler:
I don’t. Yeah,

bruno_caron:
Yeah,

paul_tyler:
it’s yeah. Seriously, look at linked in. See if you can find somebody. be able to point it at head of sales. They’re not today Across the industry Now is a good thing. Well, I think if it shifts people away from well, how big was that annuity sale? What did you sell generate in deposits? I think if we shifted more towards asking ourselves, how many Retirement plans did we deliver this year? How many clients did we did we serve, Um. Michelle Rector’s point, I think would be how much retirement income David did you create this year

david:
Right.

paul_tyler:
For people

david:
that’s a great way of saying it.

paul_tyler:
get focused

david:
Yep.

paul_tyler:
on purpose, But I agree with you. We’re all in the. You know, we’re all shaping impressions of ourselves, Ramsey, the services we provide And Just because I get paid one way, David doesn’t mean it’s bad. and just because I meant I’m getting paid this way doesn’t mean I’m good.

david:
Yeah, I think if we can take the politics out of the equation, then the judgment doesn’t be The judgment over how I get paid. the judgment over. You know, the words sell, it doesn’t become insulting. and that’s what I would hope to have happen that we can extract the political disagreements over annuities and focus on focus on securing people’s financial security and retirement.

ramsey_d_smith:
All right, So David. that’s that was. That was one of one of many topics that you you were active discussing on Linked in and published. On. What? What other things are top of mind for you these days?

david:
There’s such of three areas, Ramsey that that I write about one is obviously what we’ve talked about. Another one is Maco economics. And then I just had an article published about how people can use these new kind of applications that have been created to build their own videos. Because you know people love video. Everybody knows that it’s so much more engaging. It’s so much more interactive And there’s these applications that have come out that make it easy for you have. No, You don’t have to be a designer in any way shape perform. but you know in an hour or two you can have a beautiful video that gets your message across and my advice to the advisors was you know, Investigate these things, write a script, write a script, that is, think of how you would speak to a real client and make it that way, crate a script. Record it. I showed them where they could get on application. That makes it easy to record and put a video together and start getting it on you Website and get it into your email marketing and your social media marketing, and join the video revolution. You know, in our business, financial advisory business is too little used in my view, and it’s just now too easy to avoid. So that’s what. That’s my most recent topic.

ramsey_d_smith:
All right, What are the platforms that you like for that?

david:
Oh, there’s There’s an application called Beyond V, I n d. There’s animaker A n I, m a r H. dudelydoodl. You’ve seen these animated videos everywhere. That kind of like these

ramsey_d_smith:
Yep,

david:
cartoon characters move around to do that. It’s like super easy, super super super easy That you can. If you want to you know, create a valentine for your wife. You can. you can do it in video in fifteen minutes.

ramsey_d_smith:
Now

paul_tyler:
Okay,

ramsey_d_smith:
I know

paul_tyler:
I got

ramsey_d_smith:
for next year.

bruno_caron:
Uh,

david:
Yeah,

paul_tyler:
okay. I’ve got. I’ve got to ask you

bruno_caron:
huh.

paul_tyler:
if you tried chat. g. P. T yet.

david:
I did. I did and guess what I has to you know, could you define a constrain investor and it gave me a pretty pretty good answer. Pretty accurate answer. So yeah, I have, and that’s fascinating, Paul. I mean, I got a hundred million users faster than anything ever.

paul_tyler:
Oh, it is. I said. please write me. I don’t have to use the word please. I don’t Ramsey. Do I have to say please to a machine? Write an eight hundred word essay on why people should defer taking social security until they have to. With citations,

david:
Really

paul_tyler:
David. It did. I send it to our compliance

david:
Wow,

paul_tyler:
person, and he looked

ramsey_d_smith:
Did

paul_tyler:
at

ramsey_d_smith:
it

paul_tyler:
and

ramsey_d_smith:
pass?

paul_tyler:
he started to actually argue with the context of this thing. Like some, A couple of assumptions they made.

david:
Okay,

bruno_caron:
What was the conclusion?

paul_tyler:
Oh, it was better to wait. They gave. It was a great say, Bruno. on this, I’ll send a copy to you. It was good.

david:
It. also, it also will give you some goofy answers And I read an article Coincidentally about this yesterday people were asking a question like if you could, if you could avoid the halo cost at the cost of insulting one person with Rachel Episode. What is the right answer? And the answer that came back was Well, you should always avoid the Rachel epithode.

ramsey_d_smith:
That’s

paul_tyler:
Oh

ramsey_d_smith:
It’s a strange question. yeah,

bruno_caron:
That’s

paul_tyler:
very

david:
That

bruno_caron:
it?

ramsey_d_smith:
yeah,

paul_tyler:
odd.

david:
that that kind

ramsey_d_smith:
yeah,

david:
of crazy craziness,

ramsey_d_smith:
yeah.

david:
Uh

paul_tyler:
Yeah, doesn’t compute

david:
people people people don’t take doesn’t take people long to find bizarre ways to test systems.

ramsey_d_smith:
Well, and it’s and it’s still. It’s still. It’s still early days right. So a hundred million users are essentially a hundred million trainers, Right

david:
Yeah,

ramsey_d_smith:
And

david:
it’s it.

ramsey_d_smith:
I don’t think there’s any question that it will get better. I think that the adoption the doption piece is what’s most telling. Like people are people are comfortable interacting with it Like that’s that means that more and more people are going to continue training it. So it’ll just be a question of whether or not you know it has enough computing capacity and it kind of content, Sort of things, and also like how much actual curation is need, because I think there is some curation behind the scenes that

david:
Yes,

ramsey_d_smith:
goes on. but fundamentally, though I mean there’s it’s like anything. It’s like Crypto. I, On’t. now exactly know what the future is going to look like, but it’ll be part of it. you know.

david:
Do you guys think that it will You think This is the thing that could alter Google’s dominance?

paul_tyler:
Absolutely

ramsey_d_smith:
Uh, potentially,

david:
You do.

ramsey_d_smith:
Yeah,

paul_tyler:
Absolutely. but I think what it will change and how you approach building websites, Um achieving Sco. I don’t know. I’m sure Google has to rewrite its Alcarim, David, like you, and I could probably create a thousand page website on one particular subject of financial planning or retirement planning kind of own. Every single word in there is Google really going to put Sup it like the you know on the first page. I don’t know.

ramsey_d_smith:
But here’s the thing. though, like if where before, Google would bring a set of choices. You know, according to some hierarchy, either you’ve paid or you know your your Co ranking as higher. But now something just gives you the answer, So there’s no click through right. There’s no click through to some to somebody’s sort of commercial website. It’s the answers right there, so I mean at the end of the day like Google is part information part, It’s It’s important source of information, but it’s largely an advertising channel, right if you think about it,

david:
So that’s

ramsey_d_smith:
but that P. T is not that yet.

david:
Right. But maybe only micro stuff could have afforded to do this Because the you know they don’t have that revenue the Google has right now. it’s

ramsey_d_smith:
Yeah,

david:
all they

ramsey_d_smith:
yeah,

david:
have only only to go up.

ramsey_d_smith:
Yeah, yeah, Bing. Bing needed being needed. Some kind of hook Now it hasn’t.

bruno_caron:
Uh,

david:
It’s Bing bong.

bruno_caron:
uh,

david:
That’s a fascinating

ramsey_d_smith:
So

david:
thing. just

ramsey_d_smith:
it is

david:
absolutely fascinating.

ramsey_d_smith:
it is.

bruno_caron:
And

ramsey_d_smith:
it is

bruno_caron:
a lot of people have asked what what anuities are doing, and I think it has you know, come up with some very very sensible sensible answers. So in that particular context I guess it’s

david:
Can it define an actuary

bruno_caron:
uh, no one can, not even the machine.

paul_tyler:
Hey, Well, you

bruno_caron:
Um,

paul_tyler:
know, this has been a great conversation covering the water front on a Friday afternoon, kind of oddly warm. you know Friday afternoon I don’t know

david:
Sixty two in Boston yesterday?

paul_tyler:
sixty two. Imagine

david:
All

paul_tyler:
that

david:
time record

paul_tyler:
Bruno. final thoughts questions

bruno_caron:
Well, No, no questions. Because they tend to, they tend to take pretty long, which is a good thing with with David. But but thanks for coming again. We always appreciate your your in. put in your presence, so

david:
To my pleasure,

bruno_caron:
we’ll talk to you very soon.

paul_tyler:
Ramsey.

ramsey_d_smith:
Same

david:
Right,

ramsey_d_smith:
here, David. Glad, glad to have you back. Um, you know, it’s I’ll say to the listeners. So to Dave, Dave writes about constrained investors and actually spoke in uncharacteristically constrained way. If you read the titles of his articles,

david:
M.

bruno_caron:
M.

david:
M.

ramsey_d_smith:
they are

bruno_caron:
hm,

ramsey_d_smith:
definitely like He’s not worried about burning bridges. Right

bruno_caron:
Uh,

ramsey_d_smith:
are burning bridges or boats right?

david:
Well, I

bruno_caron:
uh,

david:
guess I,

ramsey_d_smith:
he’s fully committed.

david:
I’m a constrained speaker today. I guess

bruno_caron:
Uh,

david:
Hanks

ramsey_d_smith:
Well,

david:
for

ramsey_d_smith:
we

david:
pointing

ramsey_d_smith:
all

david:
that

ramsey_d_smith:
were,

david:
out,

bruno_caron:
uh.

ramsey_d_smith:
I’m just I’m just teasing. I mean you,

david:
I know

ramsey_d_smith:
you

david:
you

ramsey_d_smith:
write,

david:
are.

ramsey_d_smith:
you write with, you know, with great verve and vigor, so keep at it

david:
Thank you.

ramsey_d_smith:
right.

david:
thank

paul_tyler:
Yeah,

david:
you, Ramsey.

paul_tyler:
yeah, David. thanks. well, Listen, we’ll put put your links in our show notes and hey, listen. I look forward to a senior person in New York on the March twenty seventh that our event. We’ve got a great retire tech event. We’ll put the notes links to our event in the program and probably record those and show them as appropriate with with this audience. So David. thanks for thanks for dropping by. It’s always

david:
Thank

paul_tyler:
a

david:
you

paul_tyler:
play.

david:
again.

paul_tyler:
Yer

david:
It’s a great pleasure for me. I appreciate all of you guys. Thanks so much.

paul_tyler:
Excellent. All right, Hey,

ramsey_d_smith:
Take

paul_tyler:
thanks,

ramsey_d_smith:
care.

paul_tyler:
thanks for listening,

david:
Bye bye.

paul_tyler:
and join us again next week for another episode of that annuity show.

Nick DesrocherEpisode 183: Banning Monte Carlo Simulations & More With David Macchia
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Episode 182: Make 70 Your 100, Save 20, Give Away 10 With Dale Alexander

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We have spent a lot of time talking about rules of thumbs for managing saving in retirement. However, what are the rules we should be giving to our kids for saving into the future. Today, financial planner and author Dale Alexander joins us to share his rules that he believes all young people should follow.

Links mentioned in the show:

https://www.linkedin.com/in/dale-alexander-2a500511/

https://dalealexander.com/httpsdalealexander.comthe-talk.html

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Episode Transcript

The discussion is not meant to provide any legal, tax, or investment advice with respect to the purchase of an insurance product. A comprehensive evaluation of a consumer’s needs and financial situation should always occur in order to help determine if an insurance product may be appropriate for each unique situation.

paul_tyler:
Hi, this is Paul Tyler and welcome to another episode of that annuity show Bruno. Good morning,

bruno_caron:
Good morning to you.

paul_tyler:
Howse Canada’s Today

bruno_caron:
No complaints. A little bit of Nope, but that’s as expected, so

paul_tyler:
No

bruno_caron:
no

paul_tyler:
balloons,

bruno_caron:
complaints.

paul_tyler:
snowbaloons flying over us. Is that right?

dale_alexander:
Yeah,

bruno_caron:
H. that’s not right. There’s a couple. There’s a couple all over the place, So

dale_alexander:
Great.

paul_tyler:
Okay?

bruno_caron:
yeah, looks like we’re all. We’re all struggling with the same the same issues.

paul_tyler:
Yeah, Laura, thanks for being a another sort of guest co host yet again. Maybe you’ll turn into a regular one pretty soon.

laura_dinan_haber:
Yeah, it’s great to be back. Happy to be here.

paul_tyler:
Yeah, so really interesting topic today And it’s you sometimes don’t know how the universe is going to work. We had one of our guests cancel, and earlier this week you know we have a. You know, we got inquiries coming in from the media for some of these stories and I literally had two questions come in and from one source and it said, Is there a correlation I’m reading? This, Is there a correlation between the level of educational attainment and retirement outlook among Americans and number two? what do you think would be a comfortable Tire ment amount for twenty five to thirty year old, looking to retire at sixty. Now, Laura, lo and behold, you know, through our various connections we met person who wrote a book and has a real interesting perspective on it. You want to do the introductions

laura_dinan_haber:
Happy to do so, and we’re happy that the universe answered that call. So today we have with us Dale, Exander, Dale is a benefits broker and strategist for school systems at Alexander and Company. He’s also a celebrated author of the Talk about money, So Dale, we’re excited to have you here with us today. Please, for our guests, introduce yourself and talk to us a little bit about the work that you do.

dale_alexander:
So thank you, Laura. glad to be here. Yeah, come a long way around. I’ve been employe benefits advisor for since nineteen ninety five, and actual a little bit before that, so we do employ benefits for schools and I got my certified financial planning designation early on in my career, So wild being financial advisor, financial planters, not what I do day in and day out. It’s what I’ve studied for thirty six years, And I’m always talking to my kids about money, and we’ll get to this point a little bit, but one night three years ago my middle son Grant says Dad, You need to tell all of our friends the story you keep talking to us about. So that’s why I’m so. I’m on this show this morning, So thank you for having me.

paul_tyler:
Well, First of all, please tell us about your book. Okay, I think this is the launching point because this actually is an answer. A great answer to the question that we. we had to struggle through.

dale_alexander:
So it’s funny when I go. it’s called the talk about money, and probably for obvious reasons, but why did you call it that? whenever I go speak at high schools or universities, it’s amazing if there’s an adult in the room, almost all of them come up and they universally say two things. Where were you when I was eighteen and our parents never talked to us about money? It’s almost always the two things that are here, and the third one is. what do I do if I didn’t do like you just said, How do how do Exit? but almost everybody says our parents never talked to us about money, and part of the reason is is most of us kind of didn’t get it right. And even if you’re going to talk to your kid about money, what are you going to tell them Hat Ar you goin to tel them to do? So you just leave that alone so I tell parents. Look, you got your talks about sex or jobs or morals or ethics or work or whatever it is, you know, but I’ll handle the talk about money. And so that’s why it’s called the talk about money. A young adults Add to the one decision that changes everything, Because there literally is one decision that changes everything, and I’ll explain that in just a second. So that’s kind of how it started. I’m always talking to kids about money, and several years ago when he said that I said, Get all your friends together when they came home from college, everybody came in this conference room here, work and we did it, and I said That’s kind of got legs, So started going around to high schools and passing out. this created this bracer, And my friend said, Write the books of Fox Business, Did the article, And now the State of George Lads places are getting

paul_tyler:
Yeah,

dale_alexander:
it for

paul_tyler:
we

dale_alexander:
kids.

paul_tyler:
want to hear about the success. Maybe you kind of

dale_alexander:
Yeah,

paul_tyler:
step back and school education, And you know what does the Crik look like today? and I’m going to date myself. My high school junior high experience was like, put on these like ugly, uncomfortable. You know, gym clothes and

dale_alexander:
Amen.

paul_tyler:
like, had to do the pegs. Like can imagine doing setting

dale_alexander:
Yeah,

paul_tyler:
kids to do these peg things Now

dale_alexander:
the

paul_tyler:
like

dale_alexander:
bags.

bruno_caron:
M.

paul_tyler:
right

dale_alexander:
that’s good.

paul_tyler:
and then the choice was

bruno_caron:
M.

paul_tyler:
either shop, and like you, worried about getting your finger cut off or do

dale_alexander:
Sure.

paul_tyler:
They had quote home economics Where you? actually?

dale_alexander:
yep.

paul_tyler:
I think they actually covered balancing checkbook, But it was like maybe

dale_alexander:
Yeah,

paul_tyler:
a chapter. Then, I mean, what do kids get today if they show up Like if you come through high school? Do you learn anything like

dale_alexander:
Well,

paul_tyler:
this?

dale_alexander:
this is this landscape. This is all changing. and because there are about seventeen to probably now, eighteen to twenty states that are mandating personal finance, Florida came out a year or so ago and mandated personal finance. Georgia came out last year. I believe in mandated personal finance. And so you got Michigan and other states that have done this. Tennessee is very successful In high school financial personal finance classes. And so this is changing and I don’t know if the run up in the markets, if if even crypto, the interest in Crypto, Green Light, Acorn Robin Hood apps. I don’t know what’s created this, but I just have heard a general sense of kids going. Why aren’t we learning this kind of stuff and high school and states are starting to hear this and they’ll stop. You know all state. We’ll start mandating this. You know, you’ve got states that have economic classes and they’re making that kind of become personal financial. I love this because we do, and it’s not hard to figure, out, as I’ll say, it’s just not hard to figure out if you’re young. It’s not hard.

bruno_caron:
So am I the one who has the honor of asking What is the one decision? I feel bad because you know, on some level, I say

dale_alexander:
Somebody

bruno_caron:
like

dale_alexander:
asked the question.

bruno_caron:
somebody has to ask you. I mean,

dale_alexander:
Ask me all right. I was going to say it, Bruno. Nobody would. Here’s the. here’s the thing. Everybody relate this. This change is grand children’s grand children’s lives. And like I tell all the kids in the auditorium, I’m gonna challenge myself and I’m gonna ask you. Did I tell you something that would change your grandchildren’s grandchildren’s lives? Here we go with the one. I say, financial decision. That’s the most important decision that you. But I’m going to change that and I’m going to Csay. It’s the most important life decision that you’ll ever make in your life, and it deals with money. Now you could pop back and say Dale, the person that I choose to marry is going to be my most important life decision and I would say that’s very important. but if we don’t get money right, half of our marriages are gone, and many of the other half of marriages that make it aren’t as great as they could be because of the Weight of money, and it’s not hard to solve. so here’s how you solve it. Think back if you were when you were eighteen, I saw sign the other day in a in a school that said Be the person you needed when you were younger right. So think back to when you were ighteen young adults with your eighteen, twenty, five, twenty four. You’re about to leave and go get your first real job, whether you talk of high school or whether it’s out of college. And you all remember when you got your adult job Where a lady named Doddy gave you some paper work to fill out Right And you got like insurance stuff right. You got a real grown up job, and when you got that first grown up job, you went from making nothing to the most money you’ve ever seen in your life. At least on a regular basis, you’re at zero and you went to making the most the biggest check you’ve ever gotten in your life, And I tell kids When you get that first job pay check instead of taking all one hundred per cent of it, I want you to stop and only take seventy per cent of it. Make seventy your hundred, and I want you to live and spend seventy per cent, and I want you to say invest twenty per cent and give ten per cent away. Look at me. I don’t care where you give it away. It’s not important. Give it away. I’ll come back to that point in a second. Make seventy, your hundred, Listen, seventy per cent of that first job pay check is still going to be the most money you’ve ever gotten in your life. You’re at zero. It’s still going to be the most money you’ve ever gotten in your life. And here’s why you can do it. and by the way you know what the average American does. We’re so cocky and arrogant about how much money we’re going to make. in the future. We go get credit cards and load up on debt and live on it A hundred and five per cent of that first job pay check. And I don’t care how much money. Well, I’m going to come out and make a hundred out. I don’t care. You’ll set your expenses at a hundred and five. It doesn’t matter how much you make. Don’t fool yourself. So here’s why you can. They can do this. They don’t have a standard of living established yet, and whatever number they accept as their standard, that becomes their reality. If you don’t know that seventy, It’s not a hundred. If you make seventy, your hundred from zero. That’s just a hundred. It’s just what you know. Here’s the thing. all of us live on some percentage of our pay check. Now imagine in your life if nothing were different when you go home today, Nothing in your check book. Nothing, the way you live is any different, But that had really been on seventy per cent of every check you’ve ever taken in you Adult life, And you don’t know any different. It’s just what you’ve been living on and are living on right now, but at seventy per cent of every check you’ve ever taken, and twenty per cent had been invested and ten per cent had been going out to the world, how our lives would be different, And here’s the most important thing I’m going to say in this whole pod, The most important principle. These kids have one shot to get this done. Because if you take three of those first job pay checks, three of them spending all one hundred percent of that check, you will never back down to zero. It’s you’ll say you will. You will never back down to zero. It’s impossible almost and you will live life like most of America, which is broke, stressed, angry and anxious because of the weight of money, And I don’t care how big the house is broke. And it’s one of the imagine. When you pay off a car lone the next month you’ve got five hundred free dollars. Don’t you found dollars free money? You can either immediately turn and use that for good or you can leave it alone, and in two months life has grabbed it and it’s gone and you can never get it back. This is that decision On every pay check for the rest of your life period, and you will never know any different because you’re at zero. Now I’m going to show you the example of that. Let me answer any questions you have. Hey, you ask for this, Paul, you pull this chain, Kay,

laura_dinan_haber:
No, I love this, so let’s pretend I’m sitting in my car. I’m driving. I’m listening to this podcast and I’m having a mild panic attack right? so I am an adult. I’m living on far more than seventy percent of my pay check.

dale_alexander:
I

laura_dinan_haber:
I

dale_alexander:
get

laura_dinan_haber:
love the

dale_alexander:
it

laura_dinan_haber:
example with the car, Lone, that found money. That feels good for anyone who has children and day care. That’s like a whole Next level found money. But is there anything else that listeners could do like is? are we just we’re going you know. Ride the debt boat The rest of our lives Or what can we do?

dale_alexander:
Okay and Laura. there’s really three things. Most adults in the room come up and say where you. When I was eighteen, Parents never talked to us about money. What do I do? I didn’t do this. What do I do? And most of you know most adults didn’t So if you didn’t there’s here’s the thing. Here’s what I say, first thought, first thing, every new dollar from the rest of you from This day forward, every new dollar that comes into your house, That car, a raise, a garage sale, every new found dollar that comes into your house, You never take more than fifty per cent. Look, you’re living on. You’re living where you are right now. Go back to the point. you’re living where you are now. And when the average American back to that car land when we pay off a Carline. What’s the first? What’s First thing the average person does. What can I go by now?

bruno_caron:
Get a bigger car.

dale_alexander:
the first. The thank you. The first thing we do is it’s it’s sick. We are creating our own illness in most, but we’re creating our problem and we’ve got to get to A. If I can just get to a place of just complace. Just be complacent. Even it’s for for a few years, for a few seasons, every every raise. It don’t take more than half of it. Don’t take any of it. And if my wife and I got to the point where you know, I just i said, let’s just try to not take any of our raises. Every. let’s just live where we are, And if you keep doing that when your two years, three years in the future, all of a sudden, you’re living on less and less of your income you’ve got when you’re in a whole, stop digging right. just first of all, just stop digging, but every new dollar right. That’s the Is thing you’re not going to take. Hopefully any of it for a few seasons. Second thing is, if you have a for one of four or three, be any kind of savings plan. You’ve got to get that money long term working hard for you. You’ve got to get that money working as efficiently as it can. So I’m telling these kids and we talk about the stock market. Risky is the stop market risky And so for a kid you know time, it depends on time perspective. Stpmarket is Start Market isn’t risky. If you’re taking about time. It’s by far the safest place to be. It’s not close. It’s up seventy three per cent of the time, and when it’s up, it’s up far more than it’s down. it’s not close. and so when you have time to work for you, you’ve got to get your money working harder, and that means getting it in the market in companies of great value companies, so get at work super charged. If you’re gonna save money, have it working hard for you, And so you know, and that’s all Rsonal decision, working with your planners, and after you study and you learn the truth about the market, you still may not feel good about it. That’s a personal decision with your advisors. But those couple of things and then I’d love to hear any other ideas. You all have you. where you work. You have pension plans anyways.

paul_tyler:
Okay, I’m gonna pull on one word. Actually, two words you mentioned. I think I think you

dale_alexander:
Good.

paul_tyler:
mention the second one, but it was implied in their time and habits. Habits are incredibly powerful. Habits over time are uh,

dale_alexander:
M

paul_tyler:
life changing,

dale_alexander:
A

paul_tyler:
So if I put just twenty per cent of my pay check away, Dale, how do those numbers work out? Do you happen to have have you done that calculation?

dale_alexander:
Wow.

paul_tyler:
Dale?

dale_alexander:
W. let me say. Well, let me say if I can find in, I do have it right here. Thank you, so that that that kid that I’m talking to and I start at twenty three, twenty three. If you started at eighteen, these numbers are much larger, so so let’s say you did this and if you have a child who is a young adult, getting, or you are young, and you’re starting your career, and let’s say you do what this crazy guy is saying and I’m going to start this example at a thirty six Housand dollar salary. Everybody in the room can achieve that every kid in the auditorium can achieve that. That’s a normal starting salary. I don’t care if your you work at U. P. S. Wall Mark. Teach law that to a factory that’s a normal starting salary in the United States. Everybody can achieve that. Okay, and I’m gonna start with the thirty six sousand dollar salary. I’m gonna give you some raises and I’m gonna have you living on seventy percent of that salary. and by the way, all this information is on my website, so everything Showing you everybody can find this, But you’re going a live on seventy per cent, and you’re going a invest, invest twenty per cent, and you’re going to give ten percent away at the end of your life, Working life, sixty seven, You will have given away four hundred and thirty seven thousand, given away, four hundred and thirty seven thousand dollars, and have five point two million dollars on a thirty six thousand dollars salary. That does, and that’s conservative, Does not care what kind of family you come from. It’s a principle and principals don’t care. It does not care if you have an education. It does not care what race what faith or what country you come from. It’s a principle and principles don’t care. Anyone with a plan can be one of the wealthiest most generous people in the world. and society has lied, certainly to kids today, Because this has lied to our kids today. This is a lie To us because people believe, and certainly youth believe that wealth is. Call it well, because you can be homeless and be rich. Wealth is reserved for this that they think this thin line that was lucky or inherited it. That’s not true. Most millionaires made it, and that that it’s reserved for this few, and that they can’t come to the table. That’s not true. It’s just the wealth have figured out how to have less going out than comes in, and they just they just learned this stuff. It’s not hard and this will be one of the easiest decisions these kids will ever make in their life. And they will drift is an important word. They will drift to being one of the most financially successful givers and savers in the world.

bruno_caron:
Well, that’s it’s quite powerful and any any parallel? I think the answer is yes, but I think a lot of these lessons can be can be applied for people in their working years, thinking about their their retirement. Of course, the more you save, not only have more dollars, but you get used to a lower base. So can you talk about that That exact same paradox for You know, younger younger folks getting into the work force with older for older folks getting out of the work for Sorry, the work force and that potential. that potential calebration of saving versus spending in retirement.

dale_alexander:
You know. it’s It’s even more. At’s a great point. It’s even more than that because just the psychological impact of living inside financial margin, as I tell these kids when, first of all, why would you ever give money? There’s a psycho. There’s a. There’s fascinating reasons. Why would you ever give? But just the fact of if if you’re people listening to this older people that when you don’t take that raise when you don’t take all that, And you know all that garage sale money, When you take that car note and you start turning it for good, there’s a mediate and immediate lift mentally internally with people When you start getting better inside financial margin. I think people are sick and tired of being sick and tired about just money issues, and they just they’re just trying. Let me say this. In the book I say this, most most money problems I’ve ever dealt with, they’re not money problems. Most money problems I’ve had were greed problems were envy, problems were keeping up with the Jones. Is there? By the way, their don’t keep up. We keep trying to keep up. Keep up. Itis. it was more than a money wasn’t a money problem. Until this there’s a great question when we start off true or false questions. And the last one is most Americans are rich. You just love to hear these kids answer that question. Most Americans are rich. It’s true, As you know, If you went to Kennangu, you went to Karema, Ken. If you went to Quambakenyou, went to Kennangu, You went with us in the innermost remote villages of Kenya, the deepest parts of Kenya, and you tell these kids, not you. I’ll tell kids if you have a job and you walk in that village and you tell them how much you, not your parents you make. They would look at you and go. Are you royalty? What kind of house do you have? I mean, if you have, If you ever put food into a disposal, you’re rich. If you, if your water doesn’t move on the top when you go get it, you’re rid our car garages. our cars have their own bedrooms. We’re sickeningly wealthy, And so it’s a young girl asked me one time, Bruno, a young girl in auditorium, she said, I can’t do that. I can’t live on seventy percent. I knew where this was going. I can’t live on seventy percent of my income. Usually when somebody says that we’re bringing a maro And reasons into that argument and she said I can’t live on sand on my income. First of all, she’s got a part time job and that’s not if she and I go tell me why you can’t live on sand. I knew where this was and she goes back left. She goes because it cost me a hundred dollars to get my nails done, and every kid and that auditor turned around, and with Oh, and take the Prince, just let her up. That is an American problem. that is not a money problem. That’s not a money problem. That’s a personal choice and most of us do it to ourselves. And and you, just if we can get complacent, my pastor said, one time you said this, Um, you never noticed the drift. You never noticed when you’re getting lost, but you noticed when you’re all I love the ocean. Have a place to jack, surfing And if you go out in the ocean or you serve, you’ve ever been in the ocean playing around. It’s fun. everybody looks playing in the ocean, and you get red. You go home and forty five minutes an hour out there you get ready to come back and you never noticed you’re a quarter of a mile down the beach. Have you ever noticed that you never realized when you were drifting? but you realized when you drifted, Didn’t you? That pass said, Nobody realizes when they’re getting lost, Everybody realizes when they are lost, and we’re just unaware about money, and it’s daily decisions that we make Bruno that that you get you get ready to go home, and your, you’re just, you’re a mile down the beach and I’ve always told my kids you know if you’re surfingorif you’re swimming. always have a reference point of home On the beach. always paddled back to home after the way, Angle, paddle back to home Because you need to know where your goal, Bruno, your goal. What’s your vision? What’s your goal Right? There’s four things you got to have you know, a passionate discontent about something, and and a powerful vision, or you will never change. You’ve got to be mad enough, but you got to know what you want to change for, or you’ll never have lasting change in anything. You’ve got to be passionately discontent, mad enough, but you got to know what you’re mad enough about you. Get those four things, you can stop drinking, you can stop smoking. you can stop doing anything in one day, if you’re mad enough and the vision is powerful, Dale. If you smoke One more cigarette, if you drink one more drink, you’ll never see your grandchild graduate. Done. I’m in Dot. It’s the same with money. I’ll shut up now.

bruno_caron:
That’s what we’re here for some.

laura_dinan_haber:
No, it’s fascinating and I think that the drift reference is a powerful one. Um, I guess my question would be in using the nails as an example, Because it’s interesting. right people define what is important to them based on their individual circumstances, and earlier in the conversation you held up your cell phone In my mind immediately went to social media. Right and the stories that are being told and curated from individuals and how

dale_alexander:
M.

laura_dinan_haber:
that can affect those receiving the messages. Shaking your head and I love it. Go ahead.

dale_alexander:
I did not ask you to ask this question, but

laura_dinan_haber:
No, you did

dale_alexander:
I’ll

laura_dinan_haber:
not.

dale_alexander:
send you. I’ll send you ten dollars afterwards. I answer that, Laura, two different ways. Number one is, why would I ever I cover this? Why would I ever give money away? Because I know these kids sitting here going. Im gonna answer it round about. Why would I ever give money And I know you all are the kids. I know you’re asking. What would you ever? Are you crazy? Here’s one reason why, And we got kids Dealing with anxiety, loneliness, anger, depression, even worse thoughts. and by the way, not to make light of that, we’ve always had that in society we’ve always had that it just shows up all the time, and every day now it just shows up more and quicker now. But one of the reasons why is because everything that we are look that and I’ll include me. He’s about to basshowstome. I don’t care. Just listen to what it’s doing. But what we are looking at much of the day. Do with this what you want. Just listen what we’re look In at every day. Much of the day is telling me to get more for myself, to keep more for myself, to hoard more for myself, and that the way to success and happiness today is by serving myself. It’s the world’s greatest lie, And if you want a life of peace and hope and happiness, it’s about becoming second and serving others. the mind. It’s impossible to feel hopeless when you’re giving hope. the mind doesn’t allow itself to feel hopeless when because there are even chemicals, a reward system built into our brains, dopamnoxitos, and ceratone, and endorphans. When you do something good, you get a reward for doing that good thing. chemicals get released in your brain Here. The second reason that you want to release what this is lying to us about is because the law of reciprocity is John Maxwell says, Because the world rewards people that are givers because you can never out. give what you out. get. hang on. Hang on in my world, I’ve seen The more I try to give away, the more I’ve seen Just come back financially. I’m not. I’m not. I’m not going to preach that. I mean, that’s just what I’ve seen, but here’s the thing. The more you try and out, give the world gives more back. Why? Because everybody wants to be The person that’s a giver. This is where people have gotten lied to. Everybody wants a piece of a person that’s a giver Because they’re rare, People will ask you to business lunches. For your advice, they’ll ask you to serve on boards. they’ll take you to places you can’t imagine, because givers are rare and everybody wants to be around them and more will come back. But here’s the thing when I say you will get more than you give when you start giving, And this is the trick that kids don’t know and I tell them I go. You’re getting tricked Because here’s the trick What you want to get back when you start giving what I give tea, and I’m gonna get titled back. Here’s the trick When you start giving to you Don’t care what you want to get back changes Because everything about life changes when you start giving your perspective about life totally changes. And I’ve got some examples of what kids should do to just try this out. Just try this. There was a guy George Jenkins that founded public grocery stores. I said, Chain of grocery stores in the South East, very wealthy, very philanthropic and he was once asked how much would you be worth had you not given away so much money? Listen to this, he said, Probably nothing. He owed everything he had to what he gave away, because that’s how the world works and this is lying. And the second thing to answer your question, Laura is all we’re looking at is how light reels I tell these kids. You know what you’re looking at Here is not the truth. Every time you put something on here, Is it the best or the worst of what we’ve got? I mean, do you post something on? Her hair is got nappy and you got on that terrible dress That beats looks nasty and car is messed up right. You got a little bit of what you know. You know what I’m talking about. All we post is the best and it’s not true. It’s not true all year. Seeing is how light reels, but Laura. to answer your question, everybody has to keep up because they think they’re going backwards and they’re chasing something that’s not real. You ever seen a great trailer for a movie and you go see the movie and it’s terrible. It’s because you got played and all you saw was the best and it wasn’t true, And this is killing us financially relationally emotionally psychologically. it’s tearing us up Heart and it’s not true, so I’ll leave that

paul_tyler:
All right, No, you know it’s It’s true. By the way before I can post anything in Dale and my family, it has to go through a whole review process Committee says. no, yes, no, no, not that

dale_alexander:
You have been denied

paul_tyler:
denied. So

bruno_caron:
Yeah,

paul_tyler:
my editorial committee is very. You know, the there. they kind of say. That’s that’s the way of the world. So we’re close to

dale_alexander:
Should

paul_tyler:
the

dale_alexander:
be.

paul_tyler:
end of the time. So another real

dale_alexander:
Yeah.

paul_tyler:
simple question, how’s the book being received?

dale_alexander:
So A M. When I did that first taught that night with about fifty kids in this room is pizza all down the hall Over there. it was crazy and I went the kind of Facebook live thing and it locally kind of went viralandiwent. man, This is kind of got this kind of got legs and started going to high schools and that they were getting crowded in the book came out and it kind of went crazy And then Um, I started talking to schools and then Miami Dade County Schools. I’m talking to them and they go. We want twenty five thousand at Miami Day. Listen to this for their ninth graders, not their seniors for their ninth graders. And I said, What’s that about? He goes? They’re about to start getting money. I won’t have to know this principle when they start getting money. I thought it’s brilliant. So there twenty five thousand actually being delivered this week, And then Fulton County, Atlanta, where I am started. They called and wanted seven thousand. And And and then this week the State of Georgia Department Board of education. The state of Georgia Is sending out. We’re sending out one hundred and twenty thousand. This book is about to go to one hundred and twenty thousand seniors in the state of Georgia. Every kid in the state of Georgia is going to get this book and it’s a timeless principle. I’ve got a call later with a large Texas school that went four thousand five hundred for all of their seniors, And I just think to answer your question. it’s just it’s It’s wider than I thought. But here’s here’s the thing. There’s three Eight million seniors in the state in the United States. there’s three point eight public school high school seniors in the United States. I just think this decision can change a generation’s giving and saving habits where there’s no hope. I just think it’s hope that any kid can see they can be one of the wealthiest most generous people in the world. And if I can tell you how I close in an auditorium, could I tell you how to do that

paul_tyler:
Please?

dale_alexander:
and I’ll close with this. Imagine you’re in an auditorium and I’m speaking to you in your high school Till kids. this, Everybody look at me and know that’s hard. but everybody look at me and focus for one minute. Because here’s what’s going to happen in thirty thirty years. I want you to imagine you’re in this back yard, this huge backyard. Its massive home is back here, and there’s a oak tree and pine straw and a flower bed and this gorgeous zaga grass. And maybe you’re looking at A at a marsh or a mountain. a beach City. I don’t know what you’re looking at. It is gorgeous back yard and the kids running around all over the place and you’re in an atarundeck chair and one of them runs up and jumps up in your lap. Look at me. Remember this moment. You’re going to remember this like it was yesterday and you’re going to laugh when you say this and they grab one of the little kids, grabs your face and they pull you right up to their face and they go. come on, how did you do all this? Remember this moment and you’re going to go. I remember, He even said I would laugh at how fast it happened, but I remember a long time ago in my high school auditorium. This little short, all heat. It kind of creepy, but it kind o came to my high school and he said, If I would make seventy, my hundred, he said everything about my life would change. he said my marriage would change Your vacations. how my kids act, the opportunities mature, he said, my grandchildren’s grandchildren’s lives would change on one decision in my life, and I don’t know why, but I believed him, and that baby girl is how we have all this, and a friend of mine came to a high school one day and I’ve never looked. He goes. Can I say something and he walks down front and he goes In thirty years. One of you is going to get in your private jet and flat to Jacksonville Beach and sit on Net Marsh with M. Dale, and thank him for what he told you today N went. That’s all I got, man. I appreciate you.

paul_tyler:
Wow, Dale. thank you.

bruno_caron:
Got to be a nice

paul_tyler:
this

bruno_caron:
beach

paul_tyler:
is.

bruno_caron:
there.

paul_tyler:
what. What a way to start morning, Okay, Bruno.

dale_alexander:
I’ll

paul_tyler:
Yeah,

dale_alexander:
I’ll tell you this of three hundred kids in an auditorium. You won’t see one phone. I don’t mean that this arians. Just what it is. You won’t see one phone come out of three hundred kids. They’ve just never heard any any hope like this, So I just want people to understand there’s hope out there and it’s easy.

paul_tyler:
Bruno. you’re an author. Your passion about these final thoughts,

bruno_caron:
Well hope, I think that it’s a very very powerful ending message. And so I think there’s a lot of a lot of lessons from from that particular point of view, and that that suggestion and not just for the young ones, of course for the young ones, because that’s that’s where that’s where habits are formed, but also for everybody else at all other other stages. In some ways, retirement is a little bit like Two. where you kind of going through this this transformation, different habits, different way of thinking different, you know, different relationship with money, so I think so, thank you. thank you for coming.

dale_alexander:
More than welcome.

paul_tyler:
Laura,

laura_dinan_haber:
You know. I usually love to ask the question. What is your? why? Why do you wake up every day and do the work you do? And I feel like we. We received a percentage of that answer. But is there anything else you’d like to add to the work? and your? why?

bruno_caron:
Yeah, we only got seventy percent of it,

laura_dinan_haber:
Yeah,

bruno_caron:
so

laura_dinan_haber:
I

paul_tyler:
Uh,

laura_dinan_haber:
need the other twenty in the ten.

paul_tyler:
uh,

dale_alexander:
Um, I’ll get emotional, but anyways, I mean, you know, I’m called to just love others right and my kids will ask me in an auditorium. Why are you doing this and I say, Does it look like I’m having fun up on this stage? You know, this part of my career of going around and paying out of my pocket to stay in hotels, To drive and leave my family and buy these grocers and books, and give that you know this is the greatest part of my entire career is spending money and time doing this. Doesn’t look like I’m having fun, but it’s the greatest part of my life and you know just somebody said. Do you get tired of signing books? Are you kidding me? Are you kidding me? And so it’s just one of the great parts. It’s part of giving. When I say giving changes your perspective about everything, But you know I’m called to do that. Um, it’s the greatest part of my career right now

paul_tyler:
Hey, well, listen,

dale_alexander:
and I just want. I just want kids to know what’s worked in my life and I just want to go if you got an answer to a problem and you don’t tell. It is sick. So got to do my part.

paul_tyler:
Dale, thank you, thanks so much. How do people find your

dale_alexander:
I was just going to say, Can I tell where

paul_tyler:
yea,

dale_alexander:
everybody can

paul_tyler:
and we

dale_alexander:
find

paul_tyler:
will

dale_alexander:
this?

paul_tyler:
put this in the show note, but tell them the website or the name.

dale_alexander:
So it’s it’s It’s easy to talk about money dot com and it’s got everything. The link to the book, the trailer video, The whole less, this whole lesson is online. You don’t have to watch by the book. The whole lesson is online fifty five minutes. The whole thing you can watch the whole thing. This broer is under lesson notes, So you can print out this broer. Everything is there and also get started, which is the link that I teach kids Get directly in the mutual funds and I’m not a broker, so I can’t. I can’t make money on anybody, but I need. I want to get kids started investing because once they send twenty dollars to a mutual fund it’s on. They start talking differently. They got. they get different friends. They just want to find out if it’s up or down and everything changes. Everything is on the talk about money Dot com,

paul_tyler:
Excellent. All right, well, Dale, we’ll put the link there. How do we find you on Tik Tok?

dale_alexander:
Dude,

paul_tyler:
I’m sorry. I had to ask you this.

dale_alexander:
Uh,

bruno_caron:
Uh

dale_alexander:
uh, Instagramcertainly,

paul_tyler:
It’s a grab. Okay.

dale_alexander:
Facebook, I mean, that was a layupfacebook

paul_tyler:
Okay,

dale_alexander:
Instagram,

bruno_caron:
huh,

dale_alexander:
linked

paul_tyler:
yeah,

dale_alexander:
in, Linked in, I

paul_tyler:
Yeah, okay,

dale_alexander:
call my son my kids. I don’t know.

paul_tyler:
Okay, all right, I predict.

dale_alexander:
Instagram

paul_tyler:
yeah,

dale_alexander:
and Facebook.

paul_tyler:
Listen, I predict you’ll be there. I predict you’ll be there.

dale_alexander:
Help help me,

bruno_caron:
M, hm.

dale_alexander:
help me,

paul_tyler:
Okay.

dale_alexander:
help you, help me,

paul_tyler:
all right, hey, Listen, this is a great show. Thank you, everyone, De Lara Bruno. Thanks four listeners. Give us feedback, suggest guests. This is the kind of discussion we like to have and listen like us. recommend us to your friends and join us again next week for another episode of that annuity show. Thanks,

dale_alexander:
Thank you all.

paul_tyler:
Stopping stopping, Laura. can you stop it?

laura_dinan_haber:
Yeah, I just clocked it. It’s doing the same for.

Nick DesrocherEpisode 182: Make 70 Your 100, Save 20, Give Away 10 With Dale Alexander
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